$22: Card dead until..

[Insty]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO (t800)
Hero (t545)
SB (t755)
BB (t780)
UTG (t1320)
UTG+1 (t645)
MP1 (t1190)
Villain (t550)
MP3 (t1415)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Villain raises to t150</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ?

Reads:
UTG has played about 50% of hands, but has folded this time.
Villain has played about 30% of hands on an otherwise moderately tight table, and has shown down 96o and KJo so far.

[playtitleist]

This is interesting to me, because villain just made Hero a pot.

Folded around, I might fold 77 here, because I am not all that fond of pushing for t75 and I won't call because the set-value is not high enough.

But, villain's bet makes this much more attractive at t175. Only problem is villain likes his hand to some degree and you prolly don't have much better than 50-50 at best. Your read on villain is a wide range, but probably not crazy.

I wouldn't be discouraged - push it and expect (hope) to take it down uncontested.

[MegaBet]

When someone at the $22s pops it up to 150 preflop, they are not folding for 400 more. Hope for a race, but I would push this. You could even just call and push any flop. Calling with, say, ace high on the flop is much harder than calling the raise preflop.

[Insty]

[ QUOTE ]
When someone at the $22s pops it up to 150 preflop, they are not folding for 400 more. Hope for a race, but I would push this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do I want a race in this situation? Given I'm going to be up against 2 overcards 95% of the time.
Can I afford to fold and wait for something better?

[tigerite]

Card dead, but you're down by 255, and it's level 3. I think you need a little more patience.

Oh and I ain't really bothered about how many hands he's played, how many has he raised? If he's loose but passive a raise is still going to be a strong hand.

[Insty]

[ QUOTE ]
Card dead, but you're down by 255, and it's level 3. I think you need a little more patience.

[/ QUOTE ]
I donked off about 200 when my BB Kxs "check it down" river flush lost to a Full House.

[ QUOTE ]

Oh and I ain't really bothered about how many hands he's played, how many has he raised? If he's loose but passive a raise is still going to be a strong hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point.
He's raised a few hands, and taken down the blinds a few hands earlier with an identical raise.

[tigerite]

Right. How often do you think he'll fold if you re-push?

If it's 0%, you need him to be raising 33+,A8o+,A4s+,KJs+ here. If 25% then 44+,A8o+,A5s+,KJs+ (not really much difference, in other words). I don't think any higher percentages are very likely given his nature.

Do you think his raise is in that range.. if so then go ahead and push /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Scuba Chuck]

If you've been card dead, where did your 250 chips go? In particular, there's about 100 chips unaccounted for.

Considering the fact that villain has shown down those hands, I'm certain you have no FE here. FWIW, I usually fold here. But I usually don't have a read like you're suggesting. Anyway, there's a point in every tournament where you will need to take a coinflip (usually). IMO, this decision here is certainly an easy $/hr decision. In terms of an ROI decision, it's far more debatable.

[flyingmoose]

When do the blinds go up? What do you think the odds are of grabbing some first-in viggorish at this table?

In my experience, when I'm shortstacked and the table is still close to full, I need to show down a hand to have a chance. Given the size of your table and the likelihood you'll be T150 shorter before you get a chance to steal, I like a push here.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
When do the blinds go up? What do you think the odds are of grabbing some first-in viggorish at this table?

In my experience, when I'm shortstacked and the table is still close to full, I need to show down a hand to have a chance. Given the size of your table and the likelihood you'll be T150 shorter before you get a chance to steal, I like a push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF are you talking about? At the moment, hero is 7 hands away from posting again. I'm not suggesting folding or pushing is better, I just don't follow your logic.

For argument's sake, let's say blinds went up next hand. Next hand hero is in the CO. You think he needs to battle here now because he will be t150 shorter before he gets a chance to steal?

[flyingmoose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When do the blinds go up? What do you think the odds are of grabbing some first-in viggorish at this table?

In my experience, when I'm shortstacked and the table is still close to full, I need to show down a hand to have a chance. Given the size of your table and the likelihood you'll be T150 shorter before you get a chance to steal, I like a push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF are you talking about? At the moment, hero is 7 hands away from posting again. I'm not suggesting folding or pushing is better, I just don't follow your logic.

For argument's sake, let's say blinds went up next hand. Next hand hero is in the CO. You think he needs to battle here now because he will be t150 shorter before he gets a chance to steal?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, the scenario you posted is one in which he'll have a nice chance to steal. Suppose they go up in 6 hands?

[tigerite]

Then he still has 6 hands to pick up a hand to be first in with.

The push isn't terrible if you really think he's loose enough to be raising more than top ~15%.

[SammyKid11]

Grunch.

Did villain raise with those hands, or just donk-call with them? If you think villain's capable of raising with those hands, then this is clearly a +EV push. If a raise from our villain indicates what a typical 3xBB raise means, then this is a pretty easy fold, IMO (say about half the time you're up against two overcards and half the time you're up against two overPAIRS...you really don't want that). If you're in the dark about the range of hands villain is open-raising from CO+2, I'd fold it and pick a better spot.

Edit: I do believe that with a villain who's shown you 96o in ANY capacity other than the blinds, you have absolutely no FE whatsoever here.

[Insty]

[ QUOTE ]
When do the blinds go up?

[/ QUOTE ]

Blinds go up next hand.

[flyingmoose]

[ QUOTE ]
Then he still has 6 hands to pick up a hand to be first in with.

[/ QUOTE ]

Either I'm only talking to people who play way above the 22s or the point is moot. I'm willing to accept either way.

In case it's a problem of me being unclear more than a problem of me being wrong, I'll try to clarify: I have always had trouble finding spots to open pots at a near-full table. Moreso when the blinds are small. I agree with the consensus of the forum that races are bad, but this specific hand is a spot where I would love a 50% chance to double up. I've just never (in 1500 SnGs) had any luck trying to steal my way back to contention in this type of situation.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think villain's capable of raising with those hands, then this is clearly a +EV push.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I don't think any of us are arguing against whether this is a +cEV and perhaps a +$EV push. The real discussion, IMO, is whether there is a better +EV situation in the near future.

If you don't think there's an opportunity in the near term (say before your BB) to enter the pot first, with a decent hand (like KJo or better), then yeah this is the right time.

I get the sense from OP, that if UTG isn't active, then this donkey is. FWIW, here's a great example where aggression in poker is rewarded on a tight table.

[SammyKid11]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When do the blinds go up?

[/ QUOTE ]

Blinds go up next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering this and the good points in the two posts above, let me revise what I said earlier. POOOOSSSHHHH!!!!