PLHE - Fold or call and triple up?

[ohkanada]

I played the $33 PLHE tourney last night on Pokerstars.

Still early (blinds 15-30). I have 1445 chips and I am dealt JJ in cutoff. There is an early limper. Someone goes all-in for less the BB. I make it 120. Button calls. BB calls and limper calls. Pot has 495.

Flop is 4h 9h 7c.

Decent flop for JJ. Checked to me. I bet 400. Button re-raises another 400. BB check re-raises all-in (has me covered). Original limper folds. Button has both BB and myself covered.

Pot has 3020. I need to call my remaining 925 and can also win another 525 if button calls the BB bet. The tourney started with 303 players and there are still 200+.

Call or fold? Is it close?

What hands do you think the opponents have?

Any other comments welcome,
Ken Poklitar

[DaNoob]

Even though I like taking more chances in the early stages of big tourneys, I don't think this is the place to make a stand. JJ is a decent hand, but with that much action, I would assume that you are either beat, or very close to getting beat at this point.

If I had to guess, I would put the button on a set and the BB on a flush-draw and willing to take the chance.

But, since you are posting, there must be something deeper than my fishy mind can come up with.

Que paso?

[Sarge85]

I'm probably way to green to answer this, but I'll stab at it. I'd guess your beat by the BB, and Button has a draw for flush.

Button = A /forums/images/icons/heart.gif K /forums/images/icons/heart.gif (I could see those calling the bets pre-flop, then raising with the flop like it was)

BB = 9x-9x: same as above reasoning. I would suspect one might muck the 4's preflop with your raises. Post Flop -Trip 9's setting up for a check raise - looks like a move to me.

I'm so new to this it's not even funny - I'm probably way off.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

With his check-reraise after all that action, it's hard not to put the BB on a set, although he may have slowplayed a higher pocket pair than yours. Neither situation is good. The button could have semi-bluffed with Ah 7h. If so, he's not going away, so unless one of you're Js is a heart, you have to be uncertain as to one of your outs. I can't think of enough scenarios that have you ahead here to justify calling despite the odds the pot offers you.

I went out of a NL on Monday with QQ and similar action and cursed myself for being bullheaded when one opponent showed me AA.

[Whitey]

OK I'm going to take a stab at this,(thought I'm also prob too inexperienced)but your posts have helped me before Ken,and we all have to start somewhere! lol.

Firstly i would deffinatly think I'm beat unless both the re-raisers are maniacs,then I might just take the chance on the triple-up.

If there not maniacs I would also put the button on a set,hard to see him not re-raising with an overpair to get heads up with you(and the all-in guy.

I would also put the BB on a draw,though AhKh is debateable(surely he would re-raise you pre flop?)

If you thought the button would pass if you called you could make a claim to beat the drawing hand but I would be inclined to pass,as you say he has you both covered and its still early enought to play correctly with the stack you have left.

[Sarge85]

Results...???

[eMarkM]

Check raise screams set to me, 77 or 99 likely, maybe even a AA-QQ. Whenever I've had an overpair and had to call a raise and a reraise, it's never worked out. Still early, you're not crippled, fold.

[DoctorJ]

Hmmm...

Initial response is to fold it in a heartbeat, but I can see why you would hesitate, given that you're risking 925 to win 3020 or 3545 (3.3-to-1 or 3.8 to 1).

I guess the question is what is the chance the button is on A9 putting you on AK/AQ, and the BB would check-re-raise with a heart draw? Without a solid read on these players, I think my initial gut reaction to fold is correct. If, however, these players are either maniacal or tricky, it could be pretty darn close.

The 400 re-raise by the button is an odd amount, unless he has 3000+ in chips. If he started the hand barely covering you with 1600/1700, he's then raising to an amount that completely pot-commits him (800). So if he knows what he is doing, this also suggests folding.

And, of course, the check-re-raise is more than a bit scary.

If I had to guess for reasonable players, I'd guess button=Kh 7h, BB=99 or QQ-AA. With some of the bozos in the lower limit tourneys on PokerStars, it really could be button = A9o, BB = Ah7h. I suppose TT is a possibility for the insane BB, as well.

Interested in the results...

DoctorJ

[ohkanada]

Well we all agree.

I mucked.

Button called the raise and showed 44 for bottom set. BB showed Ax of hearts of nut flush draw. Strangely enough the all-in player also had Qx of hearts for another flush draw. No flush card came on the turn/river and 44 won a huge pot and was the chip leader at that point.

The reason I posted the hand was although it was an easy (annoying none the less) fold with JJ, I think it would have been a tougher decision with bigger pocket pairs. But even with AA/KK it is likely the correct decision. The overpair possibilities go away or lessen with KK/AA but one of those players are screaming set. Of course there is a chance of 2 flush draws.

I did double-up several hands later so losing 1/3 of my stack didn't really hurt much. The player who flopped the set eventually busted me. He was raising a lot of hands and then he lost QQ vs KK. On the next hand he doubled up by betting all-in on the turn with bottom pair(5) and getting called by an underpair(33). So the very next hand I open raised with AJ and he re-raised. I didn't do what I would against everyone else (muck). Instead I re-raised all-in. He called with AK and I am out.

Ken Poklitar