AQs in a bloated pot facing a turn raise. [Archive]

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Stealthy

10-20-2005, 06:35 AM

Villain is 22/8/1.1 over 50 hands. Reasonable pre-flop but passive post flop. This is the only hand we actually played together.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, CO calls, Hero?

I assume I have to to into call-down mode despite him being passive in a pot this size?

My first session back after not playing limit for 8 months so don't want to get into any early bad habits!

10-20-2005, 07:15 AM

*Grunch*

Let's see...we've got TPTK and he wakes up when 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif hits the turn. I put villian possibly on two pair since if he is passive post-flop I'm not sure if he would raise with less than that. Assuming we need a better two pair we definitely have odds to call and we have about 20% equity vs. 2 opponents which I don think is enough to raise. Based on my flammable analysis here, I would call down the turn. If the river is UI c/c. If we improve lead out.

Flame away...

hemstock

10-20-2005, 07:20 AM

Call down

Webster

10-20-2005, 07:25 AM

I reraise and take control again. There is nothing there thatreally scares me yet.

50 hands is not enough to really tell how a player is post flop or even pre flop. I have played 50 hands a 4% VPIP and 30% VPIP. All 50 hands tells you is that he's not a maniac and not a fish and not a rock. post flop it's still a ??

The only thing I see him having is a flush draw - AJ maybe but he would have raised UTG.

Heck I'm more worried about the callers. Why are they still in the game.

You have 2 choices - fold or reraise.

10-20-2005, 07:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You have 2 choices - fold or reraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF??? This is now like a 15BB pot. We have odds to call hoping only to improve if we want.

IMO a reraise accomplishes nothing, it doesn't protect our hand, and opens us up to a cap if the other guy has a monster. I think we have enough of hand to call down with in what is now a huge pot, hopefully we improve on the river if not I make a crying call.

10-20-2005, 07:46 AM

Re-raising is spew, particularly if it's capped back to you with two other callers. You've shown aggression on every street, and this guy is representing a better hand than a single ace; you're very likely behind to two pair or a slow-played set. I would rather call, and possibly make a crying call on the next street, but folding the river unimproved probably isn't bad either (although, without much of a read I tend toward calling down).

Jimmyjohn

10-20-2005, 08:12 AM

Virtually everyone at this limit will slowplay AJ until the second diamond hits the board. Throw in potential for sets slowplayed or 555 and you are on thin ice.

JJ

silencio

10-20-2005, 08:15 AM

Grunch

The pot is big but I think folding is a good option. Besides, the fact that villain is probably slowplaying a set , everyone called your flop bet and moved on to the turn. Notice that MP1 and CO are cold calling villain's raise. That is good because it bloats the pot, but there is a good chance that your Q will probably make a straight for someone.

You are getting almost 1:15 to call his raise when your main out is probably only another A. I cannot credit your Q outs with more than half an out tops.

I'll probably call this because I just can't seem to let go when the enemy is hidden. Fold the river UI or if a Q falls and one of the other villains wakes up.

chopchoi

10-20-2005, 09:10 AM

I wouldn't be able to fold here, though that is probably the better play.

An aggressive player might raise here with 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, but you sid he was passive post flop, so you have to figure he has a made hand, and we cam be pretty damn sure it is something better than AT. Either a set or 2 pair. If he has a set, you're dead. If he has 2 pair, it all depends on which two. He's probably not limping fromn EP with J8, so you have to put him on A5s, A8s, or AJ. If he has AJ, you only have 3 outs. If he has A8 you have 6 outs, and vs. A5 you have 9 outs. This is assuming the cold-caller is on draw. For instance, if the raiser has A8, and the cold-caller has a J, you're still drawing to 3 outs. If the third player has an OESD, your Q outs are no good, and if he has 2 diamonds, those aren't outs either.

Since you aren't going to be able to fold on the river if you call the turn, you need to analyze this situation in terms of showdown cost. It will cost you 2 big bets to show this hand down, and you will probably win about 15 big bets (not including the 2 you need to put in) if you take the pot. So, you're pot odds are roughly 7.5:1. You need 7 outs to call. I don't think you have that many.

bozlax

10-20-2005, 11:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is big so I think folding is a terrible option.

[/ QUOTE ]

fyp...actually, started fixing your post, and realized that this was going to be more work and more bolding than I wanted to do, so I stopped.

You should be much less worried about a queen falling and making somebody a straight than an ace falling a making you think it improved your hand while it turned somebody's two-pair into a boat, dude. Ace-rag is a much more popular hand than T9 or KT...and both of those hands would be making mistake calling 2 cold on this turn (although it's close for T9).

The only two-pair hand that Villan could have that you're really worried about is AJ...A8/A5 (seems most likely)/J8/J5/85 you've got hidden outs against all of them. If he has a set, c'est la poker. Call down unless you catch a queen, and hope for a 1BB showdown.

steelcmg

10-20-2005, 11:18 AM

I just got done reading some of ED Millers old posts and this is exactly the type of hands he was talking about. There is zero chance of folding here. Anyone who thinks folding is correct then i suggest you go and read his post about this.

Here is the link of acticles mmbt0ne made and EDs articles about this is the first couple.

Articles (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=micro&Number=2350366&Forum =f21&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=2141664&Sea rch=true&where=sub&Name=15519&daterange=1&newerval =1&newertype=y&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#Post 2350366)

The link is actually at the beginning of the thread.

Aaron W.

10-20-2005, 11:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I assume I have to to into call-down mode despite him being passive in a pot this size?

[/ QUOTE ]

That, and you might have some hidden outs against A8 or A5.

silencio

10-20-2005, 12:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]

fyp...actually, started fixing your post, and realized that this was going to be more work and more bolding than I wanted to do, so I stopped.

You should be much less worried about a queen falling and making somebody a straight than an ace falling a making you think it improved your hand while it turned somebody's two-pair into a boat, dude. Ace-rag is a much more popular hand than T9 or KT...and both of those hands would be making mistake calling 2 cold on this turn (although it's close for T9).

The only two-pair hand that Villan could have that you're really worried about is AJ...A8/A5 (seems most likely)/J8/J5/85 you've got hidden outs against all of them. If he has a set, c'est la poker. Call down unless you catch a queen, and hope for a 1BB showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok. I might have overestimated the straight options, but no one seems to give any credit to the cold callers. The OP didn't give us any read on those so I guess we can treat them as unknowns.

What is your plan for river ? When UI ? When an Ace falls ? When a Q falls ?

gopnik

10-20-2005, 01:14 PM

I definitely call the turn raise. You have odd to chase if you have 5 outs (although they might not be good). You might have only 3 outs or drawing dead to a set, but I'd still call the turn and think hard on the river if I don't improve.

Stealthy

10-20-2005, 03:41 PM

I took the favoured line when faced with these situations and hoped that he was just waking up with a worse ace than me. I called

River is a brick and I check/call him down and he shows me AJ for a flopped 2 pair and MHING.