Is this how the thinking on the river should go

[Mikey]

I made this hand over simplified, but I was hoping some of the better players on this forum could help me out and see if I'm thinking correctly, or if I'm over thinking.....

I kind of never understood what it means to call on the river with so and so hand getting 8 to 1. So I designed one, that would play out like a normal hand but then you are faced with a decision on the river and your pot odds seem to dictate a call.

Here is the hand....




Your hand.
QsJs.

You raise preflop in a 10 person game and only the BB calls who is a decent player.
Logical and doesn’t get out of line too much.

The flop comes Jd 7s 2h.

He leads into you and you call.

On the turn falls a 4c

He leads into you and you raise, he calls.

On the river falls a 7d.

He leads into you?

Should you call?
What are your odds you are getting from the pot.

What is the pot size according to bet size and your odds.

The pot is 2BB preflop, 1 BB flop, 4 BB turn, 1BB river = 8 BB

You are getting 8 to 1.

Now lets allocate here and see maybe what he could have that you beat.

How many Jack combinations does he have with AJ?
How many Jack combinations does he have with KJ?
How many Jack combinations does he have with QJ?
How many Jack combinations does he have with TJ?
How many Jack combinations does he have with J9?
How many 7 combinations does he have with A7?
How many 7 combinations does he have with 78?
How many 7 combinations does he have with 76?

Bluff hand like 9To.










AJ = 8 holdings
KJ = 8 holdings
QJ = 6 holdings
JT = 8 holdings
J9 = 8 holdings
67 = 8 holdings
78 = 8 holdings
A7=8 holdings
88 = 6 holdings
99 = 6 holdings
TT = 6 holdings
T9 = 16 holdings
44 = 3 holdings
22 = 3 holdings

102 holdings total

Holdings you beat = 50/102 = 50%
Holdings you lose to = 46/102 = 46%
Holdings you tie = 6/102 =

I’m avg. these out.

So does that mean your hand will be good 50% of the time and you should
Call on this river easily getting 8 to 1?

Any other factors I should be including in this or is this the wrong way to think about making river calls…..

Thanks in advance.

[CardSharpCook]

yeah, you're over thinking this. The question is, what the hell does he play like this. Is he donk betting his KJ or his A7? Or is he betting his 99 this way. Or has he missed and realizes his only chance to win is to bluff. But, what does it matter, you're not folding this, and this is far to slim to raise.

[baronzeus]

call and pray

[vmacosta]

Hi Mikey,
I am not one of the better players on this forum, but let me take a stab at this one. Given no read except that BB is decent player sucks. Donking the river is a play that some decent players rarely make and some decent players overuse. It would help if you might describe the norm for this game (what limit, which site/room, etc.)

Without this, let me offer you an explanation from my point of view. I play mid-limits in Northern Califronia so the norm here is to check your weaker holdings on the river. Most decent players will check all hands worse than KJ on this river. You will rarely see a bet from 99, TT, etc., and some hands with a 7 will choose to try for a c/r. Therefore, I'd expect you to be about a 10:1 underdog or worse when bet into on this river card if you were playing in my typical games against a typical "decent"-playing opponent. This is because many of the holdings you quoted as possible based on PF play (which I agree with) are now no longer possible or highly unlikely.

However, in the high-limit games in SoCal and online at most mid-high limits on many sites, this donk bet could be nearly all of the hands you mentioned. While I still think you might want to discount some of the weakest hands there, you would probably be getting something like 3:1 and thus have an easy call in these games.

Hope that didn't just confuse you more.

I would call this river donk almost every time.

[rory]

dunno if anyone actually read your post or not, but yes, this is how thinking on the river should go if you are deciding to call a bet. enumerate your opponents hand range and if you are good greater than pot odds against that range, call. obviously you can't do it at the table, but when you are working on your game it is important to work out the close river decisions so you can calibrate your internal "good % of the time" meter.

another way to do it other than just enumerating the hands is to assign probabilities to different ranges of hands as well-- for instance that is a pretty weird way for your opponent to play a set, so it is less likely he has a set. so you can enumerate the number of hands with a set, and do something like x * # set hands, where x is some probability, let's say 0.2, that if he had a set, he would play it that way. that way you can get a more accurate estimation of your opponents hand range.

it is definitely not 'over thinking'. it might seem that way but the only way to be able to make good judgements at the table is to make correct ones away from the table when you have as much time as you want to analyze the situation. just saying 'you are probably good' or whatever is completely lazy. its obvious in this hand you should call but change your hand to 88 or like A2 or something and it is a lot more difficult.

[Luke]

rory's post is really good.

Luke

[Fillamoore]

Here's another thing to consider, people are saying he doesnt bet his 99 or TT here as all, which i dont necessarily agree with. IF he had a range on you, say A hi, a draw or a J, and he had TT or 99, he figures he's going to call you on the river if you bet anyways, and that the 7 protects him from getting raised, so he leads for those times that you have A hi or low pair, knowing full well that you could have a jack. Think about that. If he's going to call anyways, and a card falls that protects him from getting raised, why not lead for the times you're weak and he loses value because you check behind.

[astroglide]

my thinking on the turn: "this guy is a good player. if he has JT he might even fold to a turn raise on such a rugged board. he's still beating me with AJ/KJ, and lots of people like to lead out with sets so they can set off a threebet. i don't mind if he's got one of the other pairs and keeps firing. i don't want him to fold a hand like 98s, T8s, etc because he could very well bluff the river. it looks like i've got an unimproved ace with my calls."

so i wouldn't raise. it also happens to make the river call a lot easier, because you don't know what kind of strength is behind it and you still have a showdown-worthy hand.