Manipulating Pot Odds

[CMangano]

Seems like I am reading portions of HPFAP on a daily basis these days, and I am picking up on all kinds of little plays that are allowing me to win pots that I wouldn't have won prior. But here is one thing that I have been thinking about for a few days now, and decided it was time to get some opinions.

Let's assume I have KK on the button in a loose passive game. There are 5 limpers to me, I raise and the big blind and all limpers call. So 7 people see the flop for 14 sb's.

Flop comes 3h 8d Qs. Now, let's assume the player on my right (the CO), has JQ, and let's assume that the player just before him has 98. If it is checked to me, and I bet, I am putting the 15th bet in the pot, meaning both of these players have the proper odds to call even if everyone else folds. Both have 5 outs to beat me getting 15-1. So if I bet, and they call, then they made the right call. But even if the players go to the river with anything and have no idea about pot odds, they will accidentally be playing right, and I will have caused this (at least on the flop).

Now, what if we have the same situation, but this time I check on the flop. Now I am representing AK or something that has missed the board, or a pair lower than a Q. If the turn comes the 5c, and it gets checked to the JQ, he has the right odds to bet (he is about 7.2-1 and he is getting 7-1). But let's assume I now raise his bet. If the 98 bets he is now making a mistake, as he is a 7.2-1 dog but is only getting 5-1 from the pot. Even if 98 folds, JQ will still be getting the right odds to call my raise.

But, no matter what I do on the flop, JQ is coming along for the ride, at least to the turn, and 98 will as well, for that matter.

So, my question is this, when the pot is laying pairs lower than my overpair odds to call my bet on the flop, is it better to give up the free card on the flop for the chance to cause mistakes on the turn? In other words, does their mistake on the turn outweigh my mistake on the flop (giving the free card), assuming these people would call a bet anyways?

[Dynasty]

when the pot is laying pairs lower than my overpair odds to call my bet on the flop, is it better to give up the free card on the flop for the chance to cause mistakes on the turn?

If you're going to think this way, then wouldn't it also be correct to just call with KK pre-flop rather than raise since your opponents will have the correct odds to call that raise?

[ZManODS]

"is it better to give up the free card on the flop for the chance to cause mistakes on the turn?"

According to Poker Enumarator with that type of board...

Ks Kc = 62%
Qd Jh = 19%
9c 8h = 18%

So you will win only 62% of the time against those 2 other players. Think about it, if a J, Q, 8 or 9 comes on the turn you are already behind.

Do you really think it is wise to allow a free card on flop allowing your oppenents to either
a)have a better hand than you do
b)have a drawing hand if completed is better than yours.

Or do you think it is better to charge them early and make them pay if they want to stick around for their miracle cards.

I think you know the answer

[Dynasty]

It's also important to note that you are also giving free cards to hands such as A3o, 44, and backdoor flush draws.

[Munga30]

I just want to comment on this line:

"... and it gets checked to the JQ, he has the right odds to bet (he is about 7.2-1 and he is getting 7-1)."

This isn't a helpful way to approach betting decisions. Comparing odds of improvement to pot odds doesn't really tell you whether you should initiate new money into the pot. That player (and you) should consider the chances that he is currently ahead, how he plays other hands in that spot, and (in rare cases) whether you might make more money giving a free card to allow opponents to make second best hands that will give more action.

There are rare multiway situations in which you can have the best hand, but with more cards to come you would rather not put any more money in the pot because most, if not all, cards give an opponent the best hand. I think Dynasty threw one of these together at some point. Generally, though, this happens so infrequently as to not worry about it.

If QJ knew he was behind, he would do better taking a free card unless he was expecting 8 players to call his single bet.

[dirty_dan]

Overpair on a two-tone flop in a multiway hand could be an example. If you don't think that a bet or raise on the flop will get people out, you could check-call to see if the turn brings a flush card. If it doesn't, then you've limited the pot size and can bet/raise to reduce the odds so that people will be making mistakes to chase.

[CrackerZack]

Your assumptions contradict here. You're saying that these people have no concepts of pot odds, so you shouldn't bet the flop and let them call correctly, but bet the turn to ensure they make a mistake. In LLHE people will see the turn with anything. So its just as likely if these people with something like 98 to fold to your bet on the turn even after betting the flop, even if he had the odds to draw. You're just making the pot smaller for their mistakes. QJ will see the river unless an overcard comes 90+% of the time in LL regardless of what you do, so don't let other people in cheap to make him error.