View Full Version : Simulators do not make sense or I am going NUTS 50/100 LIMIT
I am playing a 50 / 100 LIMIT game so this hand really needss help for me. I ended up losing this hand by the way.
Ok here is the flop... 5s6s7s and i have Qs9d and opponent has 57. The simulator shows that my opponent will win most of the time, but that doesn't make sense... My outs are 9 spades and 4 8s(for a straight) which total to be 13 outs, and 13 x 4 = 52 percent of ME winning, why does the simulator say that the opponent will win? Any thoughts on this guys? Am i going nuts?
djk123
10-19-2005, 10:56 PM
you are about 43% to win.
sthief09
10-19-2005, 10:57 PM
redraw
Does the limit really matter here?
how did you calculate that 43? I thought it was 52... 13 outs x 4 = 52 percent
flawless_victory
10-19-2005, 11:06 PM
im not sure if this post is serious or not... its freaking me out...
sy_or_bust
10-19-2005, 11:08 PM
OK you catch your spade on the turn. SWEET!!!11
River is a five. Weird.
lorinda
10-19-2005, 11:09 PM
[ QUOTE ]
how did you calculate that 43? I thought it was 52... 13 outs x 4 = 52 percent
[/ QUOTE ]
This is correct. It is only 43% in 30/60
Lori
hobbsmann
10-19-2005, 11:09 PM
you have 9 flush outs and *3* other 8 outs.
sthief09
10-19-2005, 11:38 PM
[ QUOTE ]
how did you calculate that 43? I thought it was 52... 13 outs x 4 = 52 percent
[/ QUOTE ]
that times 4 bs is a pretty terrible estimate once you get above 10 outs
DcifrThs
10-19-2005, 11:58 PM
not simulators.
math.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1289819
pokenum -h qc 9s - 7d 5d -- 5s 6s 7s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s 6s 5s
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s Qc 433 43.74 538 54.34 19 1.92 0.447
7d 5d 538 54.34 433 43.74 19 1.92 0.553
your win % is 43.74%
Barron
elindauer
10-20-2005, 01:00 AM
Welcome to the forum rookie. /images/graemlins/smile.gif
You have 9 spades, 3 8s (you've already counted the 8s), and random runner two pairs as outs. However, he has a 4 out redraw no matter which of these you catch, which is enough to give him the advantage.
good luck.
eric
Josh W
10-20-2005, 01:21 AM
To summarize what others have said, as well as trying to play to your theories...
You have 12 outs, not 13.
12 x 4 = 48%.
However, if you get there on one of the streets, your opponent can get there on the other street. i.e. turn a flush, river a fullhouse. He has 4 outs.
4 x 4/2 (because only one street) = 8% that he redraws.
8% of the 48% is about 4%. So, you actually win 48% - 4% of the time, or about 44% of the time.
I hope that makes sense.
Josh
You arent drawing to the nuts while he is so if he catches on the turn you have 0 outs.
So ~8% of the time you are drawing dead on the river.
Your one card straight draw isnt that flash either because he has additional outs he can catch a 9.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
how did you calculate that 43? I thought it was 52... 13 outs x 4 = 52 percent
[/ QUOTE ]
This is correct. It is only 43% in 30/60
Lori
[/ QUOTE ]
It's 57.3% in 15/30 /images/graemlins/tongue.gif
bleu329
10-20-2005, 07:02 AM
what site is this again? it greatly affects your flush chances!
AlcateL
10-20-2005, 07:10 AM
[ QUOTE ]
what site is this again? it greatly affects your flush chances!
[/ QUOTE ]
LOL /images/graemlins/smile.gif
He has outs to a house which means even though you're going to be ahead assuming he doesn't improve like 52% of the time he can still improve.
phish
10-20-2005, 09:49 AM
I don't understand this multiplying by 4 business. Is it some kind of rough rule of thumb?
flawless_victory
10-20-2005, 10:01 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand this multiplying by 4 business. Is it some kind of rough rule of thumb?
[/ QUOTE ]yes.
MaxPower
10-20-2005, 10:01 AM
The confusion you are having is that you are trying to compute the probability of making the hand that you are drawing to. That is not the same thing as your probability of winning the hand - which is what the simulator gives you.
As everyone has already pointed out the probability of you winning the hand is less than the probability of hitting your draw, because you opponent can improve to a full house even if you make your draw.
fnord_too
10-20-2005, 10:06 AM
You are using a rule of thumb to get your 52%. It is just an estimate. First, not figuring redraws, with 13 outs you have:
1 - (32/45 * 31/44) =~49% of hitting.
He will boat up
1- (41/45 * 40/44) =~ 17%, but you cannot just subtract that from the 49% because then he only has one card to hit if you make your hand, which is less than 10%. Basicly, the easy way to do these is to plug them into pokerstove which will iterate over all possible boards and show you to be a ~9:11 dog, but you definitely have odds to continue there.
spoohunter
10-20-2005, 02:13 PM
[ QUOTE ]
OK you catch your spade on the turn. SWEET!!!11
River is a five. Weird.
[/ QUOTE ]
man I love it when stuff makes me giggle.
JacksonTens
10-20-2005, 08:38 PM
Is your 6th post better than your last 5?
I feel thats as good an answer as this post deserves.
[Insert random face... Like when the donk, donkbets into your obvious set on a drawless board.]
JT /images/graemlins/spade.gif
LondonBroil
10-20-2005, 09:15 PM
Do 50/100 players really ask these questions? Maybe it's time I moved up.
Peter_rus
10-20-2005, 09:32 PM
I guess no one forgot when answered this post to count a chance of 89 or 34 come on turn and river to split this pot? /images/graemlins/smile.gif
sthief09
10-20-2005, 09:36 PM
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I guess no one forgot when answered this post to count a chance of 89 or 34 come on turn and river to split this pot? /images/graemlins/smile.gif
[/ QUOTE ]
helpmeout wrote:
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our one card straight draw isnt that flash either because he has additional outs he can catch a 9.
[/ QUOTE ]
/images/graemlins/tongue.gif
jason_t
10-20-2005, 09:43 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand this multiplying by 4 business. Is it some kind of rough rule of thumb?
[/ QUOTE ]
Let us suppose we see our opponents hole cards and the flop. We determine that we have n outs to a hand that is better than his. The chance that those outs don't fall on the turn and on the river is
[(45 - n) * (44 - n)] / (45 * 44).
Therefore the chance that one of those outs comes by the river is
1 - [(45 - n) * (44 - n)] / (45 *44) = (89n - n^2) / (45 * 44).
To convert this to a percentage, multiply by 100. We get that the percent chance we hit by the river is
100 * (89n - n^2) / (45 * 44) = 5 * (89n - n^2) / 99 = n[445 - 5n] / 99.
For small n, (445 - 5n) / 99 ~ 4.217
Thus the approximate percent chance we hit by the river is 4.217n. But just like the "rule of 72" we simplify this by saying that the approximate percent chance we hit by the river is 4n.
The derivation that the rule on the turn is 2n is left to the reader as an exercise.
blumpkin22
10-20-2005, 09:50 PM
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The derivation that the rule on the turn is 2n is left to the reader as an exercise.
[/ QUOTE ]
Priceless.
sthief09
10-20-2005, 10:05 PM
you are such a TA it isn't even funny
48.1% with 2 cards to come and your playing 50/100???
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