Good river value bet?

[Vehn]

Thought this was interesting. Decent $15/$30 tonight. I was just thinking about picking up some aces when there they are staring back at me, http://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/ad2.jpghttp://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/ah.jpg. Somehow I imagine this happens a lot more than you would think cause, well, everyone else thinks about it too. Anyways I go ahead and open raise UTG+1. Loose aggressive LP makes it 3 bets. He probably needs some sort of hand here because he thinks coldcalling is just dandy. Loose semi-aggressive button calls all 3 bets. Blinds fold. I chose to just call.

Flop:

http://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/ac.jpghttp://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/jc.jpghttp://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/9h.jpg

Not really what I was looking for but I check, LP bets, button calls, I checkraise and both call.

Turn:

http://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/ac.jpghttp://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/jc.jpghttp://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/9h.jpg http://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/qc.jpg

I bet, LP calls, button folds.

River:

http://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/ac.jpghttp://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/jc.jpghttp://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/9h.jpghttp://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/qc.jpg http://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/kc.jpg

I bet.

[Tyler Durden]

I don't think the river is what I want to comment on, I'm more interested in the pre-flop play.

I think just calling the three bets is fine if you're going to see the flop heads-up. I don't like it if the other guys is in there coldcalling three bets.

The button is loose and semi-aggressive so I'd rather have him put more money in pre-flop. You tie him in further that way, plus let's not forget that you've got the nuts, both pre-flop and on the flop.

So when you hit a set on the flop and you've got the nuts, I think you should bet out and if it gets raised, that's cool, you can choose to 3-bet and checkraise the turn.

I think a lot of players "dick around" too much when they have strong hands instead of just firing away and building a large pot for themselves. I don't see why you checkraised the flop?

I think you chose a bad spot to "dick around".

As for the river bet, at first I thought it was a bad one but now I think it's a good one.


I don't mean this post to sound harsh. Particularly the "dicking around" comments.

[Vehn]

I think you're probably right about the preflop play however its close. By disguising my hand out of position against two action players I stand to win a helluva lot more here than the 1 (or 2) extra big bet I would have made by 4-betting preflop. I dunno I don't think it matters much in the long run.

Frankly I think betting the flop is a terrible idea given that I chose to smoothcall preflop.

[Ulysses]

I kind of like the bet. I mean, your opponent should most likely have two pair or a set. But maybe you were raised by pocket tens w/ a royal flush.

I'd most likely check-crying call.

[Tyler Durden]

would his opponent have seen the turn? i don't think so.

[Ulysses]

Here are reasons why this opponent might see the turn w/ pocket tens.

1) He's loose aggressive
2) There are a lot of chips in the middle
3) He already put one bet in on the flop
4) He can get open-ended on the turn
5) He has a runner-runner royal flush draw

I could go on. So, should he be there at the end w/ pocket tens? Nope. Would it surprise me at all if he was? Nope.

[Vehn]

He thought for a bit and called, and chuckled and flashed two kings before mucking. OK, maybe it wasn't that interesting.

[J.A.Sucker]

I think you've got to 4 bet here preflop, especially if this is the cap where you are playing. You need to collect bets from loose aggressive players, and you can get more here. If you are only capping it with AA, then you are giving up too much here. You should also cap it with JJ or better, AQs, AK, and maybe even AJs. This really gives you a lot of deception, and allows you to take the aggressor's role, which is a good play.

Frankly, if the guys are loose aggressive enough, they'll still give you action. I think you are thinking too much.

On the river, I not a huge fan of the bet. You are letting better hands raise you, and he'll likely fold anything less than QQ, which he doesn't have since he didn't raise the turn. He may have KK, but that's the only time your bet is good. Even then, he still may be frisky enough to bet it. Ironically, if you had capped it preflop, he'd be more likely to bet the KK here on the end, since he'd never put you on a T, and a flush is unlikely with all those big clubs out.

This is just my opinion, but I'm Just Another Sucker.

[Andy B]

FWIW, the cap is five bets. I think that four-betting is still best when there's another player in.

[elysium]

hi vehn
i agree completely with sucker here. there aren't many hands he will fold that beat yours, and the early action tells him you don't have the clubs. there are also few hands that you beat that will call. and of course, there is a chance he will check along the straight, but will raise with any hands that he will bet.

do you see how simple it is when we simply.....your in the heat of battle you say. you neither have the inclination to stop and ponder such utterly imponderable variables and rather than listen to me you'll bet pot luck. take the money. take it. now that mason recogized one of my posts, youll never be rid of me.....hmmmm.

did i mention mr.sklansky has a great math quizz posted in the general forum vehn?

ok, ok, a short-cut way to decide what to do in this situation, but not quite as good as considering everything i listed, is to ask, 'if i check and my opponent checks it down, will i win?' if yes, bet; if no, check. you would also like to factor in opponent knowledge here. it's not quite as good though as a full consideration. and if you're concerned that youll pause too long , then usually check-call.