Couple of independent $22+2 hands

[EricW]

Just what is the best way to play pocket pairs after there is a min raiser and then multiple callers

HAND ONE:

#Game No : 2858130068
***** Hand History for Game 2858130068 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:16470089 Level:3 Blinds(25/50) - Wednesday, October 19, 21:23:06 EDT 2005
Table Table 13758 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 1: queennutcrkr ( $675 )
Seat 2: IH8AQsuited ( $1100 )
Seat 4: stierney321 ( $1940 )
Seat 6: Hooep ( $1810 )
Seat 7: rickyq ( $315 )
Seat 9: Hero ( $945 )
Seat 10: awon24 ( $1215 )
Trny:16470089 Level:3
Blinds(25/50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Th Ts ]
>You have options at Table 13791 Table!.
queennutcrkr folds.
IH8AQsuited folds.
>You have options at Table 13779 Table!.
stierney321 raises [100].
Hooep folds.
rickyq folds.
Hero is all-In [920]

----------------------------------


HAND TWO:

#Game No : 2858117486
***** Hand History for Game 2858117486 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:16470084 Level:2 Blinds(15/30) - Wednesday, October 19, 21:08:40 EDT 2005
Table Table 13775 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: MrWickedd ( $780 )
Seat 2: Hero ( $745 )
Seat 3: mwl342 ( $1595 )
Seat 4: mrkpete ( $920 )
Seat 5: Sean090 ( $605 )
Seat 6: rascaldog22 ( $925 )
Seat 7: cjwessel ( $770 )
Seat 8: Kicks_66 ( $690 )
Seat 9: Nazbuhdazz ( $760 )
Seat 10: bigslizy ( $210 )
Trny:16470084 Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Th Ts ]
mrkpete raises [60].
Sean090 calls [60].
rascaldog22 folds.
>You have options at Table 13791 Table!.
>You have options at Table 13791 Table!.
>You have options at Table 13791 Table!.
>You have options at Table 13758 Table!.
>You have options at Table 13779 Table!.
cjwessel folds.
Kicks_66 calls [60].
>You have options at Table 13779 Table!.
Nazbuhdazz folds.
Kicks_66: can you guys please slow down, this lightning fast pace is a killer
bigslizy folds.
MrWickedd calls [60].
Hero is all-In [730]


-----------------------

[EricW]

anyone?

Warning: I play more aggro than most at the 2+2ers at 22s and 11s

Hand 1: I like a reraise, but pushing TT this early is not something I like to do. The pot just isn't big enough, and you are solidly behind the range that calls you. My move: Make it 275 Preflop. Note: This move is only good if you are confident in your ability to not get outplayed postflop when an overcard hits.

Hand 2: Pushing is too high risk /reward for my taste, as there are a lot of people in the pot, and lower buyin players will often call off all of their chips once they have called a PFR. At this point in the tournament you definitely dont want to be all in VS AJo and KQs, as losing will take away your biggest advantage of bubble play. Call for set value/proceed cautiously with an overpair. Pot odds are decent, and the implied odds are huge.

Edit: Also, in both hands, a lot of villians will make minraises with AA/KK hoping to get a lot of callers/disguise their hand. The minbet doesn't imply as much weakness as you think it does, though it is definitely not a super strong play.

[flyingmoose]

I like the second push a lot. Min-raises don't usually mean monsters until the blinds become more significant. It still COULD mean a monster, of course -- but I make moves like this constantly and find 88 much more often than AA. The likelihood of someone cold-calling a min-raise with JJ-AA is even smaller. I would guess that you have the best hand (even if it's only marginally the best hand), and you have a good amount of fold equity into a very nice pot.

The second push I like less. The villain's stack is large, so he may give you a spite call with QJs or KQ. You're risking more to win less. Try to take a quick glance through the Hand History to see how the villain got his stack. If he had some uber donk-luck, I call and lead T100 into any flop. If he got his stack through tight/smart play, I push.

I wouldn't reraise push hand one, but it's probably not terrible. Mostly you'll win the pot right there because mostly his minraise means he has a weak raising hand. Sometimes he'll have AA-KK and you'll go broke. I don't think you'll get too many calls from pairs you dominate here because your stack is too big. With these stacks and blinds, I would probably either flat call or reraise to 250 depending on my read. I would only push if I had a reason to think 22-99 was calling.

I don't really like the push in the second hand either. I can see why you'd do it--it's likely you're ahead, and you're going to get called a lot here, and there's a decent amount of dead money. But still, I don't push this. It seems too early for me, and rather than taking a small edge by pushing preflop, I'd usually rather try to flop the set--you're definitely getting good implied odds. Yeah, it's true you'll get some calls from 77-99, but you will also see JJ a lot here, and the occasional monster from the raiser.

Both pushes are probably profitable, but in each case you have other choices that are IMO more profitable and involve less variance.

Moose had an interesting idea about trying to look through the entire hand history to see how the big stack got his chips, but

[ QUOTE ]

>You have options at Table 13791 Table!.
>You have options at Table 13791 Table!.
>You have options at Table 13791 Table!.
>You have options at Table 13758 Table!.
>You have options at Table 13779 Table!.
cjwessel folds.
Kicks_66 calls [60].
>You have options at Table 13779 Table!.
Kicks_66: can you guys please slow down, this lightning fast pace is a killer


[/ QUOTE ]

but I'm not sure you have time here /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[EricW]

I dunno if reraising is the best idea. If our stacks were really large, then yes, I think reraising is best. However, the stacks are not very large. I have 745 chips. I can't see how reraising 1/3 of my chips only to fold to an over card on the flop is the best play. Basically by reraising, I'm praying for no over cards or a set. I dunno about leaving myself 460 chips is the best idea.

That being said, I don't know if reraising all in is the best play either.

Sorry if I wasn't clear, but I said I would only consider reraising to 250 on the first hand, and even then I would only do it depending on my read of the raiser. It wouldn't take you down to 460 chips, it would take you down to 670 or something, and the blinds are still 25/50, so you're not crippled.

[ QUOTE ]
I can't see how reraising 1/3 of my chips only to fold to an over card on the flop is the best play

[/ QUOTE ]

If you feel like you would likely fold to any overcard on the flop, then I agree, reraising is not the way to go here.

And yeah, on the second hand, if you were going to reraise, then reraising any amount less than all-in would be a mistake.

[tigerite]

I like the first, it's a good blind defence but it does depend on how loose the guy is. Despite the strength of your hand, you don't really want to be called by KJ and other such bollox here.

The second, I don't like. Just call and try to spike a set, it'll win you more +EV in the long run than a push here. AKo I would push here probably, but not TT.

Edited to say, well actually KJo wouldn't hurt you too much to call, but KQs wouldn't be as fantastic to see.

[Insty]

Flat call, see what the flop brings. Tens suck.

[bennies]

Interesting close hands.

Hand 1: I don't think there is much between the 3 options, folding, calling or pushing. Calling requires some flop skills.

Hand 2: This is a great spot. You stand to win a lot by pushing (I imagine you get a walk about 1/3 of the time and otherwise it's mostly a coinflip) but calling for set value is also very good.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]

Hand 2: This is a great spot. You stand to win a lot by pushing (I imagine you get a walk about 1/3 of the time and otherwise it's mostly a coinflip) but calling for set value is also very good.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure a push here is (marginally) +EV but just calling and spiking a set is more +EV overall, your odds are a bajillion to one and with so many in the pot, the chances of stacking one (especially if an ace flops) must be huge.

It's also only 1/20th of your stack so doesn't even hurt you in the slightest should you miss.

The second one is a lot more of your stack (75 of 945) just to call and try to spike a set and there's always the (albeit slim) possibility the BB might try some PVS type crap. I like a call here a lot less than I do in the 2nd one. There's also the metagame considerations of "crap, he defends his small blind so I'd better not try to steal from him too much" should you be called and win, it really is worth its weight in gold (depending on the table and how observant it is, of course)

[bennies]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Hand 2: This is a great spot. You stand to win a lot by pushing (I imagine you get a walk about 1/3 of the time and otherwise it's mostly a coinflip) but calling for set value is also very good.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure a push here is (marginally) +EV but just calling and spiking a set is more +EV overall, your odds are a bajillion to one and with so many in the pot, the chances of stacking one (especially if an ace flops) must be huge.

It's also only 1/20th of your stack so doesn't even hurt you in the slightest should you miss.

The second one is a lot more of your stack (75 of 945) just to call and try to spike a set and there's always the (albeit slim) possibility the BB might try some PVS type crap. I like a call here a lot less than I do in the 2nd one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree a call is much better in the second hand, but that's because the second hand is simply a much better spot. Seeing a cheap multiway flop with a pocket pair, what more could we ask for?

The first hand is tougher. Calling is something I see more in multi-table tourneys. If the flop comes with no A and only one overcard we're in pretty good shape with TT even oop.

As I said, I don't mind folding the first hand either. 175 chips is not enough for a push to be mandatory, we can find spots later. But I suspect pushing is slightly +EV against most opponents and I suspect calling to be +EV also if Hero is not scared to play post flop.

[tigerite]

I'm not so sure about that.. 175 is pretty much 20% of our stack. By the way even if the raiser called 100% of the time (he won't) he could have 55+, ATo+, A9s+ to make this a push. That doesn't seem so bad to me.

However I do agree it's quite close as his range wouldn't be much looser than this, and I don't think when he folds it changes it that much, because if he's raising with more and folding those hands we would rather he call with them (due to us being very far ahead).

[Seadood228]

Agree Agree Agree...

I like pushing hand one as well. It's fairly close though.

[EricW]

My reasoning for the way I played it the way I did in hand two was because there was 240 chips in the pot already. I felt that this would greatly help my stack and my chances in the tourney. I don't know if my reasoning is wrong here but I felt that I'd rather take that 240 (provided that everyone folds and even if they don't, I'd be in a likely coinflip anyways) right away than to hope for a set.

Can anyone tell me if my reasoning is wrong here? I mean we flop a set 1/6 times so 5/6 times I'm wasting 60 chips where I can pick up 240 or more 50% of the time provided it's not a higher PP that's calling. Even if I am in a coinflip, it's not like I'm calling all in so there's a chance that everyone folds and then I have a chance to win on a coinflip.

In terms of EV, is this wrong? With my stack size, it's not I'm a shoe in for anything as my equity of the prizepool is not great at all so is it that bad if I bust out on a coinflip?

Opinions?

[tigerite]

You're wasting 45 chips. You're in the small blind and already have 15 in the pot

If you are one of the better players at the table you should avoid coinflips early.. this is basic tournament stuff

[EricW]

Post deleted by EricW

[EricW]

[ QUOTE ]
You're wasting 45 chips. You're in the small blind and already have 15 in the pot

If you are one of the better players at the table you should avoid coinflips early.. this is basic tournament stuff


[/ QUOTE ]

lol I just read your reply and then deleted my other one.

The thing is, of course one should pass up small edges early on if one is better than the rest of the field. However, these aren't big stack tournies at you know. There's not much room to make manuevers especially later on.

So in this situation, it's not not I'm going on JUST a small edge. There's potential for me to pick up 240 chips AND I have a possibility to pick up a small edge.

Bah, tweeking one's game isn't fun /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[tigerite]

I agree, but there's also 4 people in the pot so the chances of being called is quite high. I dunno, at 15/30 level I think the risk to reward is just a bit too much to be pushing here, even given the 240 in the pot, and I do understand where you're coming from. Also, I don't think a push is -EV or if it is, it's certainly not by much. (Haven't run the numbers, though)

It's just better to play some poker in the first 2-3 levels if you can without risking too much of your stack in my opinion, it'll make you a better player if nothing else, and give you more of a chance of stacking someone when you really do hit the flop hard, too.

[Seadood228]

I forgot to respond to hand two.

Your arguement makes a lot of sense, but unfortunately the others might not think that way drastically reducing your FE in this particular situation.

You DO have quite a large edge here and the pot is laying you a nice amount if you push, but the fact of the matter is this is a $20 SNG and I really think there will be greater opportunities later on. I just don't think ~250 chips is worth it at this stage.

As you move up in levels I think this becomes more and more of a push, the level of competition alone dictates this.

[zambonidrivr]

i think both pushes are horrible. calling is the right play in both cases, as losing the hand will not put you out of the tourney, and more importantly, you will still have a great deal of fold equity. In the shot that you do hit a set, you will be doubling up 85% of the time.

[zambonidrivr]

huh? TT is in front of AK

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
huh? TT is in front of AK

[/ QUOTE ]

Very simplistic way of looking at it. With AK you will be called by hands you dominate more than you will with TT, and AK works better seeing all 5 cards. This is obvious stuff again though really.

[zambonidrivr]

this is exactly why pushing in both of these spots are bad, considering your fe. the only hands calling are AK, and hands better than yours. However, this is a 10+1 so you can expect to get called by at least 2 people. considering the blinds, your stack, and action at the table, pushing is IMO horrible

[Seadood228]

Don't forget your pot equity when you hit the flop with TT as opposed to AK.

I'd poosh AK as well.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget your pot equity when you hit the flop with TT as opposed to AK.

I'd poosh AK as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, exactly.

Even Sklansky agrees a push with AK is fine if the pot is between 20 and 50% of your stack. So I guess he must be wrong too /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ QUOTE ]
i think both pushes are horrible. calling is the right play in both cases, as losing the hand will not put you out of the tourney, and more importantly, you will still have a great deal of fold equity. In the shot that you do hit a set, you will be doubling up 85% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]I think that's a gross overstatement of the likelihood of doubling up with a set of tens.

I think this is a good question, and one that can be generalized better than most problems.

Suppose you are in the SB with a full table and a nearly average stack of around 20xBB. You hold TT. What action do you take when there has been an early position minimum raise and no callers? 1-2 callers? How would your decision be affected by fewer players at the table? By having a smaller or larger stack?

Suppose you are in the SB at a table with 7-8 players and a slightly below average stack of 15x-20x BB. You hold TT. What action do you take when there has been an early position minimum raise and no callers? 1-2 callers? How would your decision be affected by fewer (or more) players at the table? By having a smaller or larger stack?

This can also probably be generalized for a group of pocket pairs, maybe 99-JJ or 88-TT.

I imagine that this is one part of your game that should become sort of automatic -- an area for play by formula. It is quite possibly a place where a mixed strategy is theoretically best, so that for SNG players it isn't a real big deal if you stick to one approach even though something else might give you a slight technical edge.

FWIW, my initial reaction was to call in the first problem. And, to push in the second problem. I don't have enough experience to be overly confident about either of my conclusions, and I'm certainly open to other points of view.

*EDIT got the blinds mixed up in my reasoning, so removed that part.

[ QUOTE ]
You're wasting 45 chips. You're in the small blind and already have 15 in the pot

If you are one of the better players at the table you should avoid coinflips early.. this is basic tournament stuff


[/ QUOTE ]Part of being the better player is taking advantage of positive situations. In the second problem, there are 285 chips in the pot (minimum raiser plus three callers at 60, the 15 SB and the 30 BB). If you push your 730 and get one caller, you've bet 730 to potentially win 1015 -- that's about 1.4:1 or 58:42. When you get called by two (unpaired) overcards the TT is ahead, people refer to it as a coin flip, but the pair is something like a 7:6 or 6:5 favorite. For instance, TdTc is about a 54:46 favorite against AsKs.

Yes, you'll get called by higher pocket pairs and not all unpaired overcards will call (but also add in a little vig for crazy calls, or a call from a slightly smaller pocket pair). It's not nearly as simple as saying you want to pass on a coin flip this early. In part, because you won't be facing a real coinflip.

[tigerite]

Actually this isn't quite true. By ICM if the first guy calls (let's assume he will, because he was the one who raised) you would need his original raise to be in the region of 88+, AQo+, AJs+. That's quite loose for an UTG raise.

If he calls with AKs or whatever, it's not as good for you as you might think. Pot odds aren't always the whole equation. (If you are called you have to be win 47%-ish of the time)

I hate a reraise here. Pushing and calling both seem OK to me, but reraising seems to cause nothing but trouble.

[tigerite]

I agree, I don't remember mentioning re-raising at all though? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[ QUOTE ]
Actually this isn't quite true.

[/ QUOTE ]Which part?
[ QUOTE ]
By ICM if the first guy calls (let's assume he will, because he was the one who raised) you would need his original raise to be in the region of 88+, AQo+, AJs+. That's quite loose for an UTG raise.

[/ QUOTE ]I don't know about quite loose. And, I'd bet that quite a few people in the 22s will also raise UTG with KQs, and probably some other random holdings.

[ QUOTE ]
If he calls with AKs or whatever, it's not as good for you as you might think.

[/ QUOTE ]If he calls with AKs, it's OK. Maybe not as good as it would be if he folded, but still good.
[ QUOTE ]
Pot odds aren't always the whole equation. (If you are called you have to be win 47%-ish of the time)

[/ QUOTE ]Well, TT wins >50% against two unpaired overcards. The question is what mix of overcards and overpairs will be actually be making the call with.

Still, I maintain that given these pot odds, I'd be happy with a real coin flip.