(11) A play I dont see very often

[golfcchs]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t745)
BB (t800)
UTG (t457)
UTG+1 (t2490)
MP1 (t985)
MP2 (t500)
MP3 (t820)
Hero (t650)
Button (t553)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t30, MP1 calls t30, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls t30, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero raises all in, SB fold, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: t135

What do you think about this push? If all fold I increas my stack by 20% and UTG+1 and MP1 have been limping allot even for a 11. Feedback greatly appriciated.

[lastchance]

I generally don't do this. It's huge +EV to limp here, for one, and opponents call too much.

[bjb23]

i think you would need to have an amazing read here to pull this off. you would have to know that the limpers were not only limping a lot but also folding to pf raises. furthermore, you are risking running into a "monster" here (when i say "monster" i mean something as low as 88 or 99 that many people of at the 11s would even cold call your push with). not to mention a real monster could be under the bed.

overall, fe(barring a hellmuthian read *sarcasm*) is not good; pot overlay is decent; hand value is below decent; you are not desperate by any means.

if you cant find a better spot than this then id suggest you look harder.

bj

In Volume Two of HoH, he mentions this play from the BB. He says you should only do it if you've seen someone limp and then fold to a big raise. I've done this on UB twice before with random crap. I really didn't want to be called. One time I got everyone else to fold, the other time I had one limper calling the raise. I C/B the flop and he folded.

[Skipbidder]

I'm not a big fan.
I'd be interested in knowing more about how UTG+1 got a hold of those chips and what you know about him so far. You say that he limps alot. Have you seen him limp with good hands?

As I recall, people at this buyin will often call 5-6xBB raises in the situation you described above (with rather mundane holdings). I wonder how often they will call 18xBB raises. Will you be happy when someone calls and shows you suited overs? Obviously you will be a lot happier than if they show you an overpair, but I still don't know that you'll like it.

[KingDan]

If the bb were 50, I like it.

As it is I prefer a limp.

[golfcchs]

You have a good point about being called by the monster 77 or 88, but these are the only hands I am really scared of. Sure there is a small chance of AA or KK, but most other hands that I am an underdog to would have raised. As far as being called by 2 overs I dont really mind this at all because I will still be a small favorite. This is where I might be wrong, but I dont mind loosing a coin flip here because if a win I will have allot more FE going into level 4 and up, and if I loose so what I problily would have busted OTM if I just had limped with the 66. What I am trying to get at here is that I hate going into level 4 with 500 to 600 chips. I just dont think you get enough chances to steal in the sb and button when their are 8 or 9 people in at level 4. I have been experimenting with this play recently and as far as I can tell it has only helped my ROI. I usually do this at level 3, but in this situation I felt I had allot of FE because of my read on the first 2 limpers.

[bjb23]

ok so if you get a call from a range of TT-55,AJs-A5s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,AJo-A5o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
(these may be loose, but it is a range of hands that you would likely see IF the limper calls the push, and in my experience at the 11s these calls do happen) your 66 is a 52% favorite.

this estimate also assumes that no one limped with a big pair.

granted you have a 135 chip overlay. but even if you have a stellar read, there are still 3 people left to act behind you who could wake up with a "monster" (in the 11s = AA-77 not to mention all the unpaired high cards)

i dont think this play is THAT horrible, just not ideal. limping would definitely be my preferred option.

of course, if this were level three this would be an easy push especially because of your read.

as far as the fundamental question of FE near the bubble, well, that is, of course, a matter of personal style. but there is just so much bubbleEV (ie. pushEV) in the 11s-33s that it is not worth the volatility, in my opinion, to try a move like this. i do believe this move borders a mild condition of fps for this level.

those are all the random thoughts i could come up with for now. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[TheNoodleMan]

I hate it. You have a cheap chance to hit a set in what is in all likelyhood going to be a 6-way pot and instead you do this? Yuck!

[mlagoo]

On level 3, or level 4, maybe... at this level, it's just really unnecessary. Your edge in the first two levels is going to be postflop, maximizing your payoff when you hit a set, when you hit TPTK, whatever. When you are doing this you are basically giving any donk a chance to make a "great call" with 77 or AJ and be in terrible shape. Not to mention the fact that 100 or 150 extra chips really isn't all that important (don't get me wrong, it helps, but this is just way too high-risk for too low of a return).

[golfcchs]

I know that a donk could make a great call, but the only hands I am worried about the limpers having are 77-99 and the ocasional slowplayed AA,or KK. I think with this specific of a read I can make this play.

[TheNoodleMan]

I think that trusting reads at the 11s leads to FPS.
Best case scenario is that you just wasted the best possible spot to have a small pair. Worst case scenario you are dominated. Limping is the play. It isn't even close.

[golfcchs]

Whats PFS? Also when I see a guy with over 70% volintary put in pot and a 20% pre flop raise I think he is limping trash and raising most pp that beat me.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
ok so if you get a call from a range of TT-55,AJs-A5s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,AJo-A5o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
(these may be loose, but it is a range of hands that you would likely see IF the limper calls the push, and in my experience at the 11s these calls do happen) your 66 is a 52% favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on now... do you really think that a loose limpers limping range is = to their calling range? Even at the 11s, the calling range will be much tighter.

Regardless, I agree with you and everyone else that limping is the best play.

[bjb23]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ok so if you get a call from a range of TT-55,AJs-A5s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,AJo-A5o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
(these may be loose, but it is a range of hands that you would likely see IF the limper calls the push, and in my experience at the 11s these calls do happen) your 66 is a 52% favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on now... do you really think that a loose limpers limping range is = to their calling range? Even at the 11s, the calling range will be much tighter.

Regardless, I agree with you and everyone else that limping is the best play.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, notice how i said IF you get a call from the limper. also notice how i said that the range is loose but not completely off base compared to some of the calls ive seen.

anyway, the range doesnt really matter all that much; even if the range was changed to TT-55,AQs-A8s,KJs+,AQo-A8o,KJo+ for the limpers the 66 would be 49% to win.

the point is that a fifty percent shot, coupled with a chance of running into an even bigger hand (with three left to act and/or a limped big pair) is most definitely not worth the reward.

[TheNoodleMan]

FPS = fancy play syndrome.

[IdiotVig]

[ QUOTE ]
I know that a donk could make a great call, but the only hands I am worried about the limpers having are 77-99 and the ocasional slowplayed AA,or KK. I think with this specific of a read I can make this play.

[/ QUOTE ]

You should be worried about TT-QQ, too. 11ers limp these all the time, even multiway. Maybe not QQ as often, but you can definitely throw TT and JJ into your "worry" pile. I see people limp, bet out on a Qxx flop, get popped, and type "I hate JJ" before mucking all the time at the 11s.

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
FPS = fancy play syndrome.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just rename thins SSS. Stupid Sucker Syndrome.

This is probably my biggest all time #1 leak.

I use this play a lot, and you will get INSANELY loose calls

Think any pair, any ace, KT+, QJ+

I'd wait for a stronger hand personally. With hands like AK i do this all day.

[SonnyJay]

Suspecting that you will currently have the best hand and/or can fold off everyone else doesn't mean that pushing 22xBB is the optimal play.

All you're saying, golfcchs, may be true. That being said, you're taking an unnecessary risk when you don't need to. The fact is that if you get called here you aren't going to like it. You don't want to be taking a 55-45 edge at best here. You need to fold this guy off a huge percentage of the time to confidently make this play.

I've seen a number of posts like this in the last couple days, confusing "+EV" plays with the optimal play. It may work out that your push here is +$EV (though I am doubting this), but that does not mean that this is the most +$EV play. As TheNoodleMan said, you have a small pocket pair in the best possible scenario: in late position with multiple loose limpers who will likely pay you off when you hit your set. It's true that you don't hit the set that often, but you'll have invested very little to do so and can likely extract many chips when you do.

You may indeed have an edge here, but I strongly suspect you have a much better edge when you limp and make them pay when you hit your set.

-SonnyJay

[tigerite]

You don't see it very often for a reason.

That's all.

[SonnyJay]

For your play to break even:

Currently: 650 (ICM: .088)

ALL IN
A) Everyone folds (x%)
Hero: 785 (ICM: .1044)

B) Get Called (MP1) (1-x%)

i) 2 Overcards (55-45) (80% of the time when you get called)
55%: Hero: 1405 (ICM: .1741)
45%: Hero: 0

i) Overpair (20% of the time you get called)
20%: Hero: 1405 (ICM: .1741)
80%: Hero: 0

.55*.1741= .095755

.2*.1741= .03482

.8*.095755 + .2*.03482= .083568 ICM when you get called

x*.1044 + (1-x)*.083568 = .088
.1044x + .083568 - .083568x = .088
.020832x=.004432
x=.2127

You have to fold your opponent 21.3% of the time to break even vs. a fold. I'm sure you'll do that, but you are passing up a very favorable opportunity to hit your set cheaply against loose opponents.

No one is can stop you from making this play, but I'd listen to the advice being given. As I said, +EV isn't the end of the argument. There can be a better, more +EV answer out there.

-SonnyJay

[golfcchs]

[ QUOTE ]
All you're saying, golfcchs, may be true. That being said, you're taking an unnecessary risk when you don't need to. The fact is that if you get called here you aren't going to like it. You don't want to be taking a 55-45 edge at best here. You need to fold this guy off a huge percentage of the time to confidently make this play.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why do I not want to take a 55 to 45 edge? With the over lay I would be happy getting called by 2 overs. Lets say you limp and dont hit your set. You could easily be looking at a stack of 550 going into level 4 with 8 people left and with how many people still limp level 4 at the 11 I dont think you get enough chances to steal with that small of a stack. If my stack were any bigger I would not have made this play, but I think I just barely have a small enough stack to make this push.

[golfcchs]

I know that some people limp TT-QQ at the levens, but I have seen the first limper raise TT early and the second limper raise JJ from mid position.

[tigerite]

Nah you shouldnt be happy with it, I ain't done the ICM for this yet, but I bet you you need to be around 47-48% favourite like the TT on the other post, the problem is you're not just going to be called by overcards, are you? This knocks it way down, it's probably barely neutral EV. You can get better spots than this.

[golfcchs]

Thanks for the reply really great post. Could you run these numbers if I had 550 chips. I'am starting to think my stack may have been a little large for this play, but I do believe this is very profitable as my stack gets smaller.

[golfcchs]

I see no one is in favor of my play. Would anyone make this with a shorter stack? How short would you have to be to make this push?

[SonnyJay]

I, too, feel awkward at the 9-11 BB range, as I don't feel that comfortable making an all in push and I don't feel like facing resistance on a 3xBB or so raise.

As nice as it is to have a big stack to steal with, you're nowhere near desperation yet. You still have 22xBB, which will likely be somewhere around 11xBB when the blinds raise to 25/50. Survival to later stages and using bubble aggression is important. You seem to understand the aggression, but being able to survive to where it is most effective is equally as important. You have a big edge if you make it to the bubble and know how/when to be aggressive.

Understanding why you aren't looking to take a 55-45 edge is really important. A big stack to steal with is nice, but a luxury compared to being at the bubble (at Party $11s). If the blinds are t50 and you make this play it has more merit. Here it seems like an unnecessary risk when (as has been mentioned a few times) you're in a textbook situation of when to limp with a mid-small pocket pair.

-SonnyJay