View Full Version : Haven't done one of these in a while - KK no Ace rainbow flop fold.
Playing 20/40 for the first time today.
Party Poker 20.00/40.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.
Flop: (17.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero folds /images/graemlins/confused.gif
The possibility of my outs being either unclean or in their hands, and that they might go to war on the turn, making it too expensive to keep drawing, led me to fold.
I think this is pretty dreadful, but that is an ugly board.
elindauer
10-20-2005, 01:21 AM
Wow. Can it ever be right to fold both an overpair AND an OESD on the flop? HUGE laydown.
Let's think about some math. Sometimes you are up against AK and drawing to a few outs for 1/2 the pot. Almost dead. For the sake of argument, let's assume that you are actually totally dead.
In this case, calling the flop costs you 1.5 BB.
Other times, you are up against queens and jacks and are folding a TEN out draw. Oops. How much does a fold cost you? Well, you're going to get there about 1/3 of the time by the river, 1/3 of 12.5 BB is over 4 BB, but you have to pay 1 BB for it, and you lose to a redraw 20% of the time or so... in this case, folding is, say, a 2 BB mistake.
The turn is going to look similar, so if you can call on the flop, you'll probably be corrct to call the turn bet as well by the same logic. (Note that I am ignoring your suggestion that the players are going to go to war on the turn. I find this unlikely unless they both hold AK)
If it's say, aces and a set, it's a little more complicated with the various draws and redraws. Let's ignore this for now because I don't think it's going to matter.
Incorrect fold is twice as painful as an incorrect call. Do you think someone holding AK is twice as likely as the possibility of two lower sets? There are only 8 combinations of AK with your 2 kings removed, but 18 combinations of pairs that have made a set on this board...
edit: just realized there are only 9 combos of set pairs. That actually makes it pretty close, maybe slightly leaning toward a fold. If you like, read the rest of my original post...
... and another 6 (aces) that might play like this while we have a pretty live draw in a big pot. We need 2 players to have pairs and not AK, but even then, I don't think it's that close. It's probably about even money that folding is right, but an incorrect fold is more more costly than an incorrect call. Make the call and profit 1 SB.
Good luck.
Eric
check the flop, some reads would be nice.
tonysoldier
10-20-2005, 01:55 AM
Don't check the flop. I think you played this hand correctly. You can not trust someone with QQ to slow down on the turn. I don't even really think it's that close. But I hate calling multiple raises that are drawing dead a high percentage of the time like the plague ... so.
I made a fold very much like this once before, about 200,000 hands ago. That time, I would have chopped with the other two kings.
As this hand turned out, all of my outs were tainted. Kings would lose unless the board paired too, while aces and nines chopped. This is the kind of thing I was worried about.
<font color="white">The only problem is, I actually had the best hand. I didn't know at the time, but the PF capper/flop 3-bettor was some kind of maniac with Kh8h. The middle guy had AQ. Bizarre hand.
</font>
tonysoldier
10-20-2005, 01:57 AM
If you hit your K you need to hit again unless you're up against exactly qq and jj, and even then you can't bet and no one else will. If you hit your ace you either chop or get no action. If you hit your 9, you can't even give action because there's still a high chance that you're beat. If you are ahead, again, no action. I can not possibly imagine calling here, it just seems so pointless.
No reads, new limit, new table near the end of my session.
What hands do you beat when someone 3 bets you and another caps?
Assuming these are standard players
elindauer
10-20-2005, 02:07 AM
Ha. Don't feel too bad. Even if you call flop and turn you may end up folding unimproved on the river anyways. Call next time since it's a) close, b) rare, and c) painful emotionally to be wrong.
good luck.
eric
roy_miami
10-20-2005, 02:07 AM
Is KK ever good here? I don't think you included this possibility in your analysis.
elindauer
10-20-2005, 02:09 AM
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Is KK ever good here? I don't think you included this possibility in your analysis.
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Hi roy,
After having the betting 3-bet and capped preflop, I think KK is now the worst legitimate hand you can hold. AA-TT and AK all beat you, and two players have claimed to hold them!
But then, never say never. /images/graemlins/smile.gif
good luck.
eric
sthief09
10-20-2005, 02:12 AM
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check the flop, some reads would be nice.
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who the [censored] banned you and why?
ggbman
10-20-2005, 02:14 AM
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check the flop, some reads would be nice.
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who the [censored] banned you and why?
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HEY YOU! STOP [censored] POSTING AND PLAY!
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Ha. Don't feel too bad. Even if you call flop and turn you may end up folding unimproved on the river anyways. Call next time since it's a) close, b) rare, and c) painful emotionally to be wrong.
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I figured if I called the flop I was pretty much showdown bound if I can get there for only two more BB, so folding as early as possible would save some money.
As for "c", it's all good. Although I would like to think I play the same ahead as behind, if I were stuck 50 big ones I probably wouldn't be able to make this fold.
w_alloy
10-20-2005, 02:23 AM
Board: Qs Jc Td
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)
Hand 1: 13.9741 % [ 00.11 00.03 ] { KsKc }
Hand 2: 43.0130 % [ 00.38 00.05 ] { AA-TT, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 43.0130 % [ 00.38 00.05 ] { AA-TT, AKs, AKo }
If mp caps half the time, you are getting 1:7.8, when you are a 1:7.1 favorite. And this is ignoring the fact that your opponents could have other hands. In fact, I think it is quite likely, and I'm not just being reults oriented. In a Party game, agasint unknowns, in a large pot, assuming your opponents always have the nut straight or a set is almost never correct.
I call, re-evaluate on the turn depending on action. If a 9 hits you are a favorite over these exrtremely tight ranges. If a 3 hits and the flop was capped I fold; you are now 1:11 to win the hand.
Nick B.
10-20-2005, 02:23 AM
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check the flop, some reads would be nice.
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who the [censored] banned you and why?
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He was banned by the STT forum because he expressed views that differed from the normal view of play AA and KK until level 5 then push anything that most of the stt forum have.
Yeah pretty much, they call differing opinions flaming over there.
Jeff W
10-20-2005, 03:17 AM
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Yeah pretty much, they call differing opinions flaming over there.
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Unbelievable that you were banned... I went back and read a couple threads(one where you advocate raising 99 after loose limpers) and you were mindlessly attacked before being accused of deliberately provoking arguments.
You can be abrasive and I don't always agree with your views, but I like reading your posts because you seem to think about poker differently from others on 2+2.
jason_t
10-20-2005, 03:28 AM
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b) rare
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The rarity of this exact situation is irrelevant; making solid reads to analyze a situation correctly so we can make thin value bets, good folds or brilliant call downs is the skill to be developed here.
Link (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=mediumholdem&Number=304734 7&Forum=,f4,&Words=&Searchpage=1&Limit=25&Main=303 4100&Search=true&where=bodysub&Name=21723&daterang e=1&newerval=4&newertype=m&olderval=1&oldertype=m& bodyprev=#Post3047347).
Nothing worth worrying about, lets get back to poker.
baronzeus
10-20-2005, 03:38 AM
i honeslty cant believe you folded this. they could be going nutso with so many things...oesd, TP, two pair, A high, ...really a lot of things. plus you were getting like 10:1 to see the turn... even with 8 outs splitting two ways you only need 10:1.
sthief09
10-20-2005, 04:38 AM
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No reads, new limit, new table near the end of my session.
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starting a new limit with no reads isn't usually the smartest thing to do.
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No reads, new limit, new table near the end of my session.
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starting a new limit with no reads isn't usually the smartest thing to do.
[/ QUOTE ]
I've never datamined, or used data other than from my own play. Never used a HUD. Don't use notes other than PT exported stats.
After watching some of TStoneMBD's videos, I actually feel a little guilty about that, like I am not taking full advantage of the tools available. But as long as I am doing OK I will probably remain set in my ways for a while.
Nietzsche
10-20-2005, 06:24 AM
This flop has always troubled me. It almost always creates a ton of action and you have no way of knowing whether these are draws, marginally made hands played very aggressively (top pair and such) or monsters where you are drawing dead. If some of these are draws the action will settle down on the turn and since you have both an ok made hand plus an ok draw I like calling on the flop and then see what kind of action the turn brings.
mplspoker
10-20-2005, 12:04 PM
Move down limits. You will get killed if you fold this hand on flop.
[ QUOTE ]
Move down limits. You will get killed if you fold this hand on flop.
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Did you miss the part about how I do this less than once every 200,000 hands or so?
[ QUOTE ]
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Move down limits. You will get killed if you fold this hand on flop.
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Did you miss the part about how I do this less than once every 200,000 hands or so?
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I think they missed the part where you thought about the situation and the holdings your opponents have to make a decision.
~D
I think the fact that being "near the end of my session" influenced the way you played this hand.
kinda like a football team playing zone defense at the end of the game, when they played the rest of the game constantly blizting
Diplomat
10-20-2005, 12:54 PM
Woah your name is black after all.
Anyone know what all the new colours mean?
-Diplomat
Nietzsche
10-20-2005, 01:39 PM
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Move down limits. You will get killed if you fold this hand on flop.
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These kind of stupid comments have started to swarm the forums lately. Why?
elindauer
10-20-2005, 01:41 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
b) rare
[/ QUOTE ]
The rarity of this exact situation is irrelevant; making solid reads to analyze a situation correctly so we can make thin value bets, good folds or brilliant call downs is the skill to be developed here.
Link (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=mediumholdem&Number=304734 7&Forum=,f4,&Words=&Searchpage=1&Limit=25&Main=303 4100&Search=true&where=bodysub&Name=21723&daterang e=1&newerval=4&newertype=m&olderval=1&oldertype=m& bodyprev=#Post3047347).
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Rarity is relevent in that your decisions make a very small practical impact on your bankroll. However, a psychological devastation like folding a winner in a huge pot may linger with a player for quite a while and have a real impact on his decision making.
For example, the OP has now made this fold only twice, but both times he was wrong! What kind of effect does that have on his confidence?
I basically agree that we should strive to play perfectly. Recognizing that we are not machines and making the occasional safe play in a spot that is close anyways seems like a perfectly reasonable move to me.
Think of it as equivalent to folding a marginal hand when you know you don't play well postflop. You're making a "mistake", but given your own fallibility, it's the right play.
-Eric
edit: I see now that you are actually arguing that this case is not rare, in that you'll be faced with similar situations frequently. Well, I think the occurrence of a big made hand + a huge draw is in fact extremely rare, and it's not even clear that it's the right play here (0 for 2 so far).
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I think the occurrence of a big made hand + a huge draw is in fact extremely rare, and it's not even clear that it's the right play here (0 for 2 so far).
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It's actually big made hand, and huge draw, and two or more opponents, and they greatly narrowed their hand ranges by playing aggressively pre-flop, and then the flop comes in such a way as to hit those hand ranges very hard, and then they continue the aggression on the flop. That's a big parlay.
I am probably not remembering times I was in similar situations and my opponents actually had the hands they were representing.
When I do fold a hand on the flop that would have won unimproved, I often wonder how I can avoid being pushed off the best hand by two opponents playing aggressively. In most cases I am talking about a much weaker hand than an overpair of Kings, usually just some random small pair I caught from the blinds. I don't see much I can do about it except take comfort in the fact that when I do hit a strong hand, like if I happened to have AK rather than KK in the original hand, they will pay it off immensely.
sthief09
10-20-2005, 02:26 PM
I'm sorry but that makes me sick. it's one thing if you're morally opposed to it, or believe that your game will become stronger without it. it's another if you're content and aren't desiring to make more
sthief09
10-20-2005, 02:27 PM
they mean a moderator loves you
MaxPower
10-20-2005, 02:56 PM
Save your hand reading until the turn. Very often I see hands like this where the action slows down on the turn and river. You really can't read too much into betting and raising on the flop. If it happens again on the turn, then you should seriously consider folding.
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I'm sorry but that makes me sick. it's one thing if you're morally opposed to it, or believe that your game will become stronger without it. it's another if you're content and aren't desiring to make more
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I tried a HUD once, it was information overload for me. Perhaps if I stuck with it and got used to it after a while, it would be good. My only qualm about using a HUD would be that Party might take stronger steps to ban them, and then I will be glad I didn't become dependent on one. This is obviously not a very strong reason. Really I'm in more of an "if it ain't broke don't fix it" mode.
The stats I get from PT generate notes are fine. I update them after every session. I don't get real time updates on the unknowns, but I don't really trust stats based on a small number of hands anyway. It's a little more inconvenient to have to look at a note than have it as an overlay, but I have a good memory and don't really need to have it in my face all the time.
[ QUOTE ]
Save your hand reading until the turn. Very often I see hands like this where the action slows down on the turn and river.
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This is the best answer and is in fact exactly what happened. My mistake was assuming the action would continue to be rough on the turn. I should have realised that one of them probably has to slow down because of the obvious potential nut hand against them.
Party Poker 20.00/40.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.
Flop: (17.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero folds, MP2 calls.
Turn: (12.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, MP2 calls.
River: (14.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, Button checks.
Final Pot: 14.25 BB.
Results in white below:<font color="#FFFFFF">
MP2 has Qc Ah (two pairs, queens and tens.)
Button has Kh 8h (a pair of tens.)
MP2 wins 14.18 BB.
</font>
jason_t
10-20-2005, 03:47 PM
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Move down limits. You will get killed if you fold this hand on flop.
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Did you miss the part about how I do this less than once every 200,000 hands or so?
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Ignore him. That's his standard line when he replies in MHS.
arod15
10-20-2005, 04:23 PM
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Ha. Don't feel too bad. Even if you call flop and turn you may end up folding unimproved on the river anyways. Call next time since it's a) close, b) rare, and c) painful emotionally to be wrong.
good luck.
eric
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