Call or raise flush draw on flop?

[checkmate36]

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

No reads on any of the players at my table at this point.
Preflop: Hero is BB with 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (4.40 SB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero??

[cold_cash]

Raise-a-roo.

Also, when you make your flush be sure to do it with the 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.

With 4 players raise yes.
I see a lot of players raising flush draws HU which would be -EV. Unless you manage to fold the other guy often enough.

[checkmate36]

I raised when it was up to me but I was wondering if I made the most EV I could vs just calling.

[blackaces13]

Definite raise.

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
I raised when it was up to me but I was wondering if I made the most EV I could vs just calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's figure out the EV of both calling and raising.

[checkmate36]

When I just call the EV is .49 per hand
When I raise the EV is .58 per hand

When I raise I have to invest .50c as opposed to just calling where it is only .25 This is where Im wondering if just calling would be good unless I had 5 opponents then a raise should clearly be the way to go. Thanks for the help and I hope my math was correct. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Eeegah]

You have more than just your flush outs--I wouldn't be too upset to spike a K despite the poor kicker--it's worth at least an out on top of the eight or so discounted to a flush. Easy value raise.

[nomadtla]

Your raise here is based on your pot equity. You have a flush draw which will hit by the river 35% of the time. There are 4 players in the pot you ate putting in 25% of the pot that you will win 35% of the time. That's why you raise and it shows in EV calculations as well

Edit: good point Eeegah the king adds even more equity

[cold_cash]

Right now lets just figure out the EV of calling the flop versus raising the flop. (Ignoring future action.)

I'm also assuming your hand will be good if you hit it.

So let's say you're going to win ~35% and lose ~65%.

How did you come up w/ your numbers?

[cold_cash]

Let's try this:

Calling:

(65% * -.5) + (.35 * 1.5) = .2

Raising:

(65% * -1) + (.35 * 3) = .4

So calling and raising are both +EV, but raising is +EV than calling.

I suck at this math stuff so hopefully this is right.

[checkmate36]

In PT when its up to me on the flop after I check we have $1.85 in the pot and its now my turn to act.

[nomadtla]

Do not look at it as the acctual $ value in the pot but rather as bets in the pot

I'm at work right now let me go get a few things done and I will work out the full EV of this in 15 min or so

[nomadtla]

Ok in order to do this kind of problem you have to look at just this act so....
We'll say that there will be no more betting on later streets. We'll also say that if you raise everyone will call (which is very likely since they commited to one bet allready)
Lets get some #'s together then
Cost of a call -1 SB
Cost of a raise -2 SB
Total pot size if you call 8.4 SB
Total pot size if you raise and they all call 12.4 SB
Chance of winning 35% or .35

EV of calling
(.65*-1)+(.35*8.4)
-.65 + 2.94 = 2.29 SB
EV of raising
(.65*-2)+(.35*12.4)
-1.30 + 4.34 = 3.04 SB

3.04 - 2.29 = .75 SB
so we take the EV of calling and subtract that from the EV of raising and see that a raise is .75 SB more profitable. Both plays are +EV but raising maximizes your EV.

does that make sense. I know the math is right and I'm fairly certain the logic is as well.

[checkmate36]

Makes good sense. Thanks everyone for the help. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[cold_cash]

My only gripe about this is what happens if you miss on the turn and it gets checked through? Or what happens on the river if you catch but only get called in one spot? Etc..

[Shillx]

Call. I would have just bet the flop though.

[Shillx]

If there is no more betting after the check/raise (everyone calls)...


EVfold = 0
EVcall = .35*8.4 - 1 = + 1.94 SB
EVraise = .35*12.4 - 2 = + 2.34 SB

So yeah your math is off here.

Brad

[nomadtla]

My #'s are basically saying it's an all-in raise on the flop what the players do on the turn and river do not truly effect the EV of this play. if you raise the flop and all call it increases your EV. Bets you gain and lose after that are seperate EV decisions

[milesdyson]

you don't only lose your bet 65% of the time. you lose it 100% of the time and you win it back 35% of the time.

shill's math is right.

[nomadtla]

Got you. Sorry I see my mistake. still the raise shows a greater EV

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
Got you. Sorry I see my mistake. still the raise shows a greater EV

[/ QUOTE ]

The flop play in this hand is not in a vacuum. If everyone were all-in then yes you would obviously try to ram and jam this pot. What do you do if everyone calls and the turn bricks? What if you get 3-bet and the flop callers fold? There is more to this hand then the best case scenario when everyone calls and we turn the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

Brad

[nomadtla]

I agree and I would take your line and lead this flop to begin with. All of those situations are posible and the action isn't in a vacum. I was just trying to show OP why raising has value and a bit about calculating EV. My equation was off, and there's never any way to calculate all the variables but a raise here still has value, it may not be the best course but mathmatically it is +EV.

[ QUOTE ]
If there is no more betting after the check/raise (everyone calls)...


EVfold = 0
EVcall = .35*8.4 - 1 = + 1.94 SB
EVraise = .35*12.4 - 2 = + 2.34 SB

So yeah your math is off here.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you please explain Brad.

I would have done the calculations

.35*(8.4-1) = 2.59
.35*(12.4-2) = 3.64
I only do it this way b/c I thought that the money put in the pot from Hero was subject to the same equity.

[Shillx]

If you are calculating the equity on a certain street, here is how you go about it....

EV = Total Bets Going In On That Street * Your Equity - Bets You Put In

So in this case, there are 4 small bets going in when we check/raise and we account for one of them.

EV raise = 4 SB * 35% - 1 SB = + 0.4 SB



If you are looking to calculate the total equity then it would go...

EV = Total Bets In Pot * Your Equity - Bets You Put In

So in this example, the pot is 7.4 SB when it comes to us. Can we call with our flush draw?

EV = 8.4 SB * 35% - 1 SB = + 1.94 SB

So yes we are making money by calling here.

Is there a chance that UTG will 3-bet and shut out the other two players? That would be my concern. Also, we're drawing to the non-nut flush. I'm not saying it is near likely that someone else has two hearts. What do others think about equity bets for non-nut draws?

[Buckmulligan]

Peeling aint bad here. We got monstrous implied odds as we expect UTG to lead that turn if we hit. If UTG is LAGGY, I always call here; we dont get free cards as often, and we get him to lead usually on the next street

[ QUOTE ]
If you are calculating the equity on a certain street, here is how you go about it....

EV = Total Bets Going In On That Street * Your Equity - Bets You Put In

So in this case, there are 4 small bets going in when we check/raise and we account for one of them.

EV raise = 4 SB * 35% - 1 SB = + 0.4 SB

[/ QUOTE ]

I've always just done
(equity-fair share)*#of bets = EV
(35%-25%)*4sb = +0.4sb

Same thing.

But this equation you've given helps me understand why my POT EV calculations have been awry.
[ QUOTE ]




If you are looking to calculate the total equity then it would go...

EV = Total Bets In Pot * Your Equity - Bets You Put In

So in this example, the pot is 7.4 SB when it comes to us. Can we call with our flush draw?

EV = 8.4 SB * 35% - 1 SB = + 1.94 SB

So yes we are making money by calling here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks

[CourtJester]

If you already have 2 ppl in, and you're last to act, and the board is not paired, its ALWAYS EV+ to raise a flush draw on the pot because you're winning more than 1/3 of the time by teh river, so every bet that goes in makes u money

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
So yes we are making money by calling here.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but don't you make more, on average, by raising?