Probability of no one hitting the Powerball tonight?

[arod15]

Just curious what the % chance that no one wins the 340$ million tonight. And estimates of what the prize would look like for the next drawing....

[skitzo444]

I am not sure the odds of someone hitting it tonight it is totally depentant on the number of players
As for the jackpot amount it was announced that everytime the new jackpot surpasses the old jackpot such as this time the jackpot will go up by 25 million only and all extra money will go ino a seperate jackpot that will be given to each person who matches all 5 white balls on the same night that the powerball winner is hit..

I read this all on www.palottery.com (http://www.palottery.com)

[arod15]

thanks....

[KenProspero]

[ QUOTE ]
As for the jackpot amount it was announced that everytime the new jackpot surpasses the old jackpot such as this time the jackpot will go up by 25 million only ...

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess they figure they don't have to let the pot escalate for more, I mean, who's really going to say .... $340 million, nope -- it has to be at least $350 to make it worth my while to play??

[arod15]

No i agree, i just was curious because i figure if it gets over 400M people from Zimunda will start flying here for a ticket....

[skitzo444]

Just so everyone knows the reason that the powerball just reached an all time high is because the lottery recently added a 55th white ball which provides A LOT more number combinations. I have not done the math but I know it is around. It says on one site the odds of matching all 5 white and the powerball are 147,000,000+

[arod15]

1 in 148,000,000
or
00000000684931506849315% chance
I like my odds.......

[KenProspero]

[ QUOTE ]
I have not done the math but I know it is around. It says on one site the odds of matching all 5 white and the powerball are 147,000,000+

[/ QUOTE ]

I noticed this. Since the lump sum value of the $340mm is $164.4 mm (add another 15% for lesser prizes), and you get the value of the pool to be just shy of $200 mm. So, ignoring taxes and the possibility of multiple winners (which is like ignoring a 500 lb gorilla), it looks like a +ev pool.

For the Original question -- Given 146.1 million possible combinations (source powerball site), and assuming purchasers randomly choose combinations (another big assumption), it's not too difficult to determine how many tickets have to be sold in order for there to be a 50/50 shot of a winner or any other percentage for that matter. Alternatively, if can find out how many tix are sold, it's easy to determine the odds of there being a winner.

[SheetWise]

It appears the jackpot has gone from $300MM to $340MM, which (using an annuity factor of 2) would be a cash increase of $20MM. From each ticket sold, $.30 goes to the jackpot -- so the outstanding tickets for this draw is estimated to be $20MM/$.30, or about 66,666,666. The odds of a winner are 1:146MM.

[arod15]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have not done the math but I know it is around. It says on one site the odds of matching all 5 white and the powerball are 147,000,000+

[/ QUOTE ]

I noticed this. Since the lump sum value of the $340mm is $164.4 mm (add another 15% for lesser prizes), and you get the value of the pool to be just shy of $200 mm. So, ignoring taxes and the possibility of multiple winners (which is like ignoring a 500 lb gorilla), it looks like a +ev pool.

For the Original question -- Given 146.1 million possible combinations (source powerball site), and assuming purchasers randomly choose combinations (another big assumption), it's not too difficult to determine how many tickets have to be sold in order for there to be a 50/50 shot of a winner or any other percentage for that matter. Alternatively, if can find out how many tix are sold, it's easy to determine the odds of there being a winner.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your math is wrong. THe annuity value is 340$. THe cash some is about half that. Less talk your talking approximatly 102Million tax home for winning it.....