View Full Version : Isn't 60% a low win rate for HU?
Indiana
10-19-2005, 01:39 PM
Over the long run I have a 60% win rate in the 20s and 50s heads up matches on stars. Recently as I have been clogging some leaks and reworking my game I am at over 70%. Is it possible that a true heads up master could retain such a rate over thousands of games? Keep in mind I'm playing on stars with deep stacks and I am better than avg at hand reading and getting into my opps head.
Thanks,
Indy
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I am better than avg at hand reading and getting into my opps head.
[/ QUOTE ]
Of course you are. In which case, you should be winning 95% of the time.
Indiana
10-19-2005, 01:53 PM
This is a pretty serious post. Actually I have been over 70% while parlaying the heads up game with a SNG or MTT at the same time. I truly "believe" that I could crush my opponent better than 75% of the time if I put myself to it, I just don't have the data to back up this "belief."
Indy
Iamafish
10-19-2005, 01:59 PM
Get the data, and THEN you'll know.
EDIT: Serously, if what you heard was 60% for a good player, then instead of asking just play and find out for yourself.
Also, at a 75% ROI, wouldnt you need to win like 95% of the time. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif
citanul
10-19-2005, 02:55 PM
it depends on a lot of things i think, but i think that at the lower stakes games %s over 65% or so are probably quite doable.
more later, busy here, just wanted to chime in. and oh yeah, vote!
MegaBet
10-19-2005, 02:57 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I truly "believe" that I could crush my opponent better than 75% of the time if I put myself to it.
[/ QUOTE ]
Well you better hope you don't play me, I'd put a huge dent into your ROI /images/graemlins/grin.gif
The Yugoslavian
10-19-2005, 02:59 PM
60% isn't low.
How many hundreds (or thousands) of HU matches have you played?
Yugoslav
davehwm
10-19-2005, 03:09 PM
Don't we have a thread on this, like.. everyday?
MegaBet
10-19-2005, 03:17 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Don't we have a thread on this, like.. everyday?
[/ QUOTE ]
Do you mean threads on ROI or threads on HU?
Oh wait, it doesn't matter! The answer is "yes" to both!
tom441lbk
10-19-2005, 03:21 PM
i was actually wondering this sometime yesterday, as i looked at my stats for the party/skins 11s, my winrate is 64% over around 300 or so, and i think i play very well heads up, and taking account the times i am way outchipped/even and outdrawn
Everyone give a shoutout of their stats/level/sample size, interesting to see, then we can brag about it and try to back it up at future STTFHUC's.
_________________
vOte or die bitches
citanul for pres in '05
PrayingMantis
10-19-2005, 03:25 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I truly "believe" that I could crush my opponent better than 75% of the time if I put myself to it
[/ QUOTE ]
OK, let me see. You truly "believe"... let me process this data... well... hmmm.... OK. This is my conclusion and reply to you: I think that you indeed truly "believe" that you can crush your opponent better than 75% of the time if you put yourself to it. And I'm almost 100% positive about this (maybe only 92% though).
MegaBet
10-19-2005, 03:26 PM
Speaking of STTFHUC's...we should have a European version! With the Europe winner(s) meeting the Americans...much like the Ryder Cup of golf!
citanul
10-19-2005, 03:31 PM
i believe this discussion was intended for tournaments that start heads up, not the heads up section of other tournaments.
c
tom441lbk
10-19-2005, 03:42 PM
[ QUOTE ]
i believe this discussion was intended for tournaments that start heads up, not the heads up section of other tournaments.
c
[/ QUOTE ]
fine then, i'll start my own thread /images/graemlins/tongue.gif
Indiana
10-19-2005, 04:48 PM
Megabet you would fall if you stepped to it man. These responses are making me angry. I'm ready to play some of you guys. On a more serious note, could we do a heads up tourney of the players here? It would go like this, everybody PM me your names, I will randomly assign players to brackets and send the schedules to pokerstars. We'd all pay some nominal fee like $20 and the top 8 or so would get paid.
Indy
networkman
10-19-2005, 04:55 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Speaking of STTFHUC's...we should have a European version! With the Europe winner(s) meeting the Americans...much like the Ryder Cup of golf!
[/ QUOTE ]
Hmmmm, I like that idea.
I'd love to take part in STTFHUC2 in Vegas but I think I'd have to dispose of my wife first and that could get messy /images/graemlins/shocked.gif
MegaBet
10-19-2005, 05:00 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Speaking of STTFHUC's...we should have a European version! With the Europe winner(s) meeting the Americans...much like the Ryder Cup of golf!
[/ QUOTE ]
Hmmmm, I like that idea.
I'd love to take part in STTFHUC2 in Vegas but I think I'd have to dispose of my wife first and that could get messy /images/graemlins/shocked.gif
[/ QUOTE ]
I'm going to start a thread on this to get opinions. Keep an eye out! /images/graemlins/grin.gif
MegaBet
10-19-2005, 05:01 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Megabet you would fall if you stepped to it man. These responses are making me angry. I'm ready to play some of you guys. On a more serious note, could we do a heads up tourney of the players here? It would go like this, everybody PM me your names, I will randomly assign players to brackets and send the schedules to pokerstars. We'd all pay some nominal fee like $20 and the top 8 or so would get paid.
Indy
[/ QUOTE ]
There is usually a 2+2 heads up tourney every week. I know because I won the last one /images/graemlins/grin.gif
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=3699499&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1
Indiana
10-19-2005, 05:07 PM
Thanks Megabet. See you there tomorrow.
Indy
MegaBet
10-19-2005, 05:13 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks Megabet. See you there tomorrow.
Indy
[/ QUOTE ]
np.
(MWHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!)
zipppy
10-19-2005, 05:21 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't we have a thread on this, like.. everyday?
[/ QUOTE ]
Do you mean threads on ROI or threads on HU?
Oh wait, it doesn't matter! The answer is "yes" to both!
[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think Indy's post was about ROI at all.
MegaBet
10-19-2005, 05:32 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't we have a thread on this, like.. everyday?
[/ QUOTE ]
Do you mean threads on ROI or threads on HU?
Oh wait, it doesn't matter! The answer is "yes" to both!
[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think Indy's post was about ROI at all.
[/ QUOTE ]
Umm, in a HU, win % pretty much equals roi, unless you're saying that I shouldn't count the vig. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=3718447&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&vc=1)
AtticusFinch
10-19-2005, 11:06 PM
[ QUOTE ]
it depends on a lot of things i think, but i think that at the lower stakes games %s over 65% or so are probably quite doable.
more later, busy here, just wanted to chime in. and oh yeah, vote!
[/ QUOTE ]
Given how much short-term luck is involved in these, I'd have a hard time believing anything over 70% is sustainable, even at pretty low limits. But I don't have any numbers to back this up.
What I think you both meant to say is that the chunk over 50% (eg 17% in 67%) equals ROI (-vig).
Or maybe you just meant that it doesn't matter if you track by win% or ROI, since both give the same info (eg winning 60% = 20% ROI without vig).
Exitonly
10-20-2005, 03:33 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it depends on a lot of things i think, but i think that at the lower stakes games %s over 65% or so are probably quite doable.
more later, busy here, just wanted to chime in. and oh yeah, vote!
[/ QUOTE ]
Given how much short-term luck is involved in these, I'd have a hard time believing anything over 70% is sustainable, even at pretty low limits. But I don't have any numbers to back this up.
[/ QUOTE ]
I dont think short term luck is as much a partt of it as it seems, have you started playing those HU matches yet? the $5 ones are ridiculous and i wouldn't be surprised in the least to see a 75% win rate here. (not for me necesarily, but i'd think it was possible)
gisb0rne
10-20-2005, 03:40 AM
If I raised you all-in every hand you wouldn't win 75% no matter what strategy you employed. Do opponents really play worse than going all-in with every hand at 10-15 blinds with 1500 chip stacks?
The Yugoslavian
10-20-2005, 03:46 AM
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If I raised you all-in every hand you wouldn't win 75% no matter what strategy you employed. Do opponents really play worse than going all-in with every hand at 10-15 blinds with 1500 chip stacks?
[/ QUOTE ]
Please note that most of this thread is on crack.
Yugoslav
Exitonly
10-20-2005, 03:47 AM
at the $5 level, i really do think they play worse, but i dont have the experience to back that up, so i won't argue. But i plan on playing lots of these, i'll let you know what i find.
Something I think everyone is this thread has missed. You can manipulate your ROI. The larger the pots, the greater the variance will be, the lower your ROI but the quicker the game. The smaller the pot, the longer the match draws out and your skill advantage will become a more influencial factor.
It's all about finding the sweet spot between ROI and length of match to get the best hourly rate. If you ROI is too high, maybe your hourly rate isn't optimal.
Gotta find the right mix of gambling vs grinding.
The $5s really are that bad. Unbelievably bad. The only way to lose is to run into a super hand.
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