Stuck Between a Rock and a Soft Place... 98s

[W. Deranged]

A'ight, so I've been experimenting with adding a few extra tables, and am working on bankroll discipline and am trying to regain confidence after running like ass for a couple of weeks, and so I played a session of 3/6 yesterday. Luckily, it was with great results. Here is an interesting hand I played.

The button is a rock (11.3/5.6/1.8, though I believe he actually appeared more rocky at the time than he did after a few more hands).

The small blind is a total soft seat, full of passive-bad goodness. (45/5/.8)

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Deranged is CO with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Deranged raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Rock 3-bets</font>, Soft Place calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Deranged calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Soft Place checks, Deranged checks, <font color="#CC3333">Rock bets</font>, Soft Place calls, Deranged calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Soft Place checks, <font color="#CC3333">Deranged bets</font>...

Y'all dig?

[Joe Tall]

Does the Button continue w/postflop aggression? Or does he shut down when he misses. I think I like betting out on the flop, hoping the button would raise w/overcards.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Does the Button continue w/postflop aggression? Or does he shut down when he misses. I think I like betting out on the flop, hoping the button would raise w/overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Joe,

This was definitely my first thought as well, but button struck me as very mouse-ish, and the SB was so bad he would likely cold-call two with tons of crap anyway. Since I figured that betting would not protect my hand, and usually if I got raised I was behind anyway, I decided a check-call would be better.

The other thought is that a turn donk is more likely to get the Rock to fold overcards than starting the aggression on the flop.

[sfer]

This is a similar hand to one that gonores put in mid/high a couple months ago. Here. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2958539&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb=5&amp; o=&amp;vc=1)

[ QUOTE ]
Since I figured that betting would not protect my hand, and usually if I got raised I was behind anyway, I decided a check-call would be better.

The other thought is that a turn donk is more likely to get the Rock to fold overcards than starting the aggression on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are excellent reasons for taking the line you did. I think I'm too eager to checkraise flops, or in this case, bet so the rock raises and the SB faces too cold. If the button raises the turn we're peeling one off and folding UI on the river, right? What happens, however, if he just calls? Do we bet a river that's not an ace or king, or are we worried he has a holding such as JJ?

[PTjvs]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a similar hand to one that gonores put in mid/high a couple months ago. Here. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2958539&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb=5&amp; o=&amp;vc=1)

[/ QUOTE ]

The point of gonores's post was that he had gotten KK to fold. I simply cannot fathom any 3/6 player folding an overpair here, so I don't think your turn bet has a lot of value. That said, you have a lot of outs if behind &amp; it doesn't really cost you that much EV to try.

jvs

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a similar hand to one that gonores put in mid/high a couple months ago. Here. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2958539&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb=5&amp; o=&amp;vc=1)

[/ QUOTE ]

The point of gonores's post was that he had gotten KK to fold. I simply cannot fathom any 3/6 player folding an overpair here, so I don't think your turn bet has a lot of value. That said, you have a lot of outs if behind &amp; it doesn't really cost you that much EV to try.

jvs

[/ QUOTE ]

There are a lot of differences, not the least of which is that you still want overcards to fold. The problem I have with the turn bet is that, given how you played the flop and how one typically plays situations like this, the bet is usually very readable as a turned draw to a smart opponent. This might not be the case here but it happens.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
Since I figured that betting would not protect my hand, and usually if I got raised I was behind anyway, I decided a check-call would be better.

The other thought is that a turn donk is more likely to get the Rock to fold overcards than starting the aggression on the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not so sure about this logic. Why is making donk call 2 cold on the flop a bad thing? You are likely forcing him into a mistake while he probably has correct odds to call 1 bet.

Likewise, you don't really want button to fold on the turn, since he doesn't have odds to call a single bet, even with 6 clean outs. Actually, you should probably be ambivalent since the EV difference for him between folding and calling 1 bet are negligible.

It seems to me that the way you played the hand gave your opponents the best chance to play correctly on the postflop streets.

[Abbaddabba]

With a low VPIP and a high AF, i would bet/call the flop in order to face the SB with two bets. Bet/call the turn after you pick up the OESD, and check/call UI if he just calls your turn bet - check/fold if he raised the turn. Check/fold any ace on the river, as that basically narrows down the hands that you beat to QKs (and given that he's a rock, 3betting there seems unlikely).

Against a tight passive, bet/call the flop, check/call the turn and check/fold UI on the river.

[callmedonnie]

Is he so rocky that his three betting range is a bit wider due to your apparent blind steal? I like leading the turn for a few reasons. First, waiting for a safe turn card makes your hand even stronger, especially the turn card that hit. Second, though he is a rock his stats don't look so weak that he will just give up when he misses. Leading the turn looks like a stronger play.

So yea, I think leading the flop isn't quite as good here because he will see turn anyway. What is the plan if Ace or other scary card falls? B/f? Do you feel obligated to lead again?

Someone in the thread mentioned checkraising but I can't see a reason to do that in this spot. Was there any river action?

[BigEndian]

W, have you considered playing just one table of 10/20+ instead of multi-tabling 3/6?

I'm with Joe, I like betting out on the flop. Jamming the turn is asking to bleed through the nose if you're against an overpair in a situation where you have to call a raise.

- Jim

[KDawgCometh]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem I have with the turn bet is that, given how you played the flop and how one typically plays situations like this, the bet is usually very readable as a turned draw to a smart opponent. This might not be the case here but it happens.

[/ QUOTE ]


true, but doesn't this hand have some deception with also having a pair to go along with it. I'm trying to figure out what the rock's three betting range is there PF, and we don't know how observant he is too. If he is observant, he might be three betting with hands that have a set here, if he isn't, AK is the only hand that I can logically see us being ahead of. His low PFR% me want to check/call the turn to be honest

[molawn2mo]

[ QUOTE ]
Since I figured that betting would not protect my hand, and usually if I got raised I was behind anyway, I decided a check-call would be better.

[/ QUOTE ] and usually if I got raised I was behind anyway

Yes, Kdawg, this is definitely flawed logic but I've been out of school (Philosophy 101) for several decades and have little recall of the exact logical fallacy contained therewithin. Anyone chime in?

Sorry Will... for the above.

In any event, as others have said, bet the flop to get the expected raise. As played I like the turn donk, putting the pressure on. If raised you have sufficient outs to continue.

My initial reaction was to bet the flop because you are ahead of a broad range or 3-betting hands, but now I believe that checking is correct. Betting would not protect my hand because the Rock would at least have odds to call and the soft player would call with lots of junk.

If the Rock checked through the flop, I would bet/raise the turn with a broad range of turn cards. If the Rock bet and the soft player raised, I would be tempted to fold the flop or cold call and fold the turn unimproved. I would hate to get 3-bet and capped on the flop with top pair weak kicker, and two weak draws.

I like the turn bet because it protects your hand against many overcard holdings With the pre-flop 3-bet I put Rock on a range from AK-AJ, ATs, KQ, KJs, QJs, and any pair AA-77. If the rock holds AA-77, you still have straight draw outs.

If re-raised by Rock on the turn I call and check/fold UI on river. I bet/raise if I improve to a straight. And I check/call if I improve to 2-pair.

If called by Rock, I check/call UI on the river, to either induce a bluff from worse hands or get checked through by better hands that Rock will most likely not fold. If I improve, I bet/call with 2 pair and bet/raise with the straight.

I am not sure what my line is against the soft player. I think I mostly ignore him. If the Rock folds the turn, and the soft player raises, I call and fold/bet UI the river. I also probably value bet the river if the soft player just calls the turn.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
W, have you considered playing just one table of 10/20+ instead of multi-tabling 3/6?

I'm with Joe, I like betting out on the flop. Jamming the turn is asking to bleed through the nose if you're against an overpair in a situation where you have to call a raise.

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the things I like about multitabling is that it reduces variance and I HATE variance.

Most of my poker experience has come playing live tables at 10/20+.

[W. Deranged]

This hand is making me increasingly uncomfortable and so I'm glad I've posted this.

I think my point about getting raised only if I'm behind is misguided, but, to follow Mo's point, I'm not exactly sure why. I thought I was not that likely to get raised by overcards on that board, but, I'm not sure that should likely discourage me from betting. If I bet and DON'T get raised, I still would have wanted to bet, right? If I bet and get raised, I'm probably way behind. At that point, the action of the Soft Place is kind of irrelevant; if he calls two cold mistakenly, the vast majority of that value is going to the Rock anyway. If he folds (correctly or not), I may only slightly increase my chance of winning anyway, as my outs to two pair, trips, and a running straight are likely clean anyway. I guess my thought was basically this:

If I'm ahead, the same number of bets go in on the flop regardless of whether I bet or whether I check-call.

If I'm behind, I likely get little benefit out of a bet, for the reasons described above (basically, I'm not in a position to benefit from Soft Place's mistakes), and so I'll wish I had checked.

My next thought was basically that waiting until the turn to get aggressive might be good, as a bet might get the Rock to fold overcards (he IS getting just barely good enough odds to peel with 6 clean outs). Originally, when I formulated the plan on the flop, I was doing so with the thought that I could easily check-fold and A (and probably K) turn and fold to a turn raise (I'd be getting close to the odds to draw to 5 outs, but likely I'd need to discount anyway and so I'd probably be just on the south side of a call).

But then the T came, and then I was put in the position of not wanting to bet the turn because I REALLY didn't want to get raised. But then I bet anyway...

I'm confused.

W, I don't find your turn bet to be bad. Let's assume half the time the rock has a big PP or better, and half the time he's got overcards. If he has overcards, he might call. Because there is a raise, the SB might call too. This gives you additional value to a hand that's often the winner.

If he raises, that's not all bad either. SB could have something like a jack or have the same pair you do with a better kicker. In any case, you do not want him calling you down and taking away some of your outs. Assuming the rock is on a big pocket pair, you have 8 outs for the OESD plus five more for two pair or trips. Winning this pot would be nice, and cleaning up a few outs is not a bad tradeoff on the offchance that he raises. Plus, if he doesn't raise then you've got more money in the pot when your hand is probably good.

Bet it, call a raise and hope for the best.

[toss]

Maybe we can decide how good a turn bet is through a mathematical approach. If we can figure out villain's 3-betting range and how often he'll raise a donkbet on the turn.

What do you think villain will make of your turn donkbet? Is he going to raise with JJ/QQ or freeze up in fear of two pair?

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe we can decide how good a turn bet is through a mathematical approach. If we can figure out villain's 3-betting range and how often he'll raise a donkbet on the turn.

What do you think villain will make of your turn donkbet? Is he going to raise with JJ/QQ or freeze up in fear of two pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought it was at least reasonably likely he wouldn't raise a turn bet with some of the overpairs.

[bobhalford]

I don't think the overpair is going to fold to the turn bet, but AK/AQ might, thinking he might be drawing dead. But in order to fold this he will have to believe that you hit your two pair, which is the kind of hand that one uses to check-raise with. I would check call the turn and then bet out the river if I improve. Betting out the turn has little fold equity and you risk getting raised only to have to check fold the river if you don't improve.

[callmedonnie]

[ QUOTE ]
But then the T came, and then I was put in the position of not wanting to bet the turn because I REALLY didn't want to get raised. But then I bet anyway...

I'm confused.

[/ QUOTE ]

So this is all going to depend on how often rock raises turn. Again, is it possible that he is three betting light because of your CO raise/steal attempt?

I don't know if this is right but I'm giving it a shot. The pot is 6.5 bb at moment. If you bet and get raised, assuming soft place folds, that makes it 9.5 to you. Basically you will be risking 2 bets to win 8.5. Assuming all your outs are clean, you definitely have equity. I think we can be sure the J,6, and 8 are all good. The nine will be in trouble from JJ and AJ (which he could have if he raised light and made a call w/ his two overs getting 7.5 to 1 assuming he just calls turn). Scaling it down to 12 outs, and you have equity.

Since you said you think there is a chance he doesn't raise with an overpair I think this can be real good. Keeping soft place in the hand might slightly effect you overall chances of winning, but wouldn't it also give you a bigger pot when your hand is good?