turn donk or checkraise

[TStoneMBD]

party 30/60

should i have donked the turn? there is also controversy on the river bet but i dont see any other line.

UTG+2 is 17.6/8.0/1.9
Button is 21.3/9.5/1.4
BB is 24.5/9.9/1.2

hero has KsQs in SB

UTG+2 calls, button calls, hero raises, BB calls, both limpers call

flop: Qc6sAd

hero bets, BB raises, 2 folds, hero calls

turn: Kh

check, check

river: As

hero bets and plans on folding to a raise

[Lmn55d]

hey TSTONE, I think it's relevant that you mention that BB was a very solid 30/60 regular, as I think you said on your site somewhere. Also, does he know that you're a decent player because I think that affects how often he checks the turn.

[TStoneMBD]

i dont remember who the villain was in the hand. i dont remember saying he was a 30/60 regular.

[Lmn55d]

it was 72tiger or something like that, i'm pretty sure you said he was v. solid in some context. You had 50k hands on him

[gonores]

No good. He has a bare ace most of the time here on the turn, and he's thinking that your JJ or TT won't pay off a turn bet, but might pay off a river bet, all while not getting boned by the set you might have.

Donk the turn.

[Jeff W]

I like a turn bet against this dood. Also, I'd be pretty surprised if you were good on the river.

[TStoneMBD]

does that mean checkfold? i dont see how checkcalling does me any good

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
does that mean checkfold?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say yes. It seems unlikely he'd play a pair of queens this way..

[ QUOTE ]
i dont see how checkcalling does me any good

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, bet/fold>check/call.

I don't get your turn play, were you check-raising?

[TStoneMBD]

yes, but i agree with everyone that donking is better. im used to playing against opposition that autobets the turn with an ace.

[PokerBob]

is bb raising an ace on the flop here?

[TStoneMBD]

how many hands could he have? its not like hes raising a gutshot or a flush draw on a rainbow board. i think jeff might be on to something with a river checkfold. it looks pretty brilliant actually.

[ QUOTE ]
yes, but i agree with everyone that donking is better. im used to playing against opposition that autobets the turn with an ace.

[/ QUOTE ]
I just want to say that I strongly disagree with betting the turn, When youre raised on the flop, on a board with no flush draw, and no possible OESD, its pretty obvious you are up against an Ace most of the time here. On the turn you very likely have the best hand with your two pair, and most opponents will bet this turn if you check to them. So I think checking with the intention of raising is the best play here. Also another note that is important here, if the person does bet and you raise, he may fold a weak ace not realizing that he has 8 outs to beat your hand, inducing someone to fold an 8 outer in this size of a pot would be a great thing for your hand. If you bet the turn you never get the chance to induce him to fold. To sum up, by checking raising the turn, you get more money in the pot with the likely best hand when your opponent does call, and when your opponent does fold you induce him to fold an 8 outer which is wonderful when it happens. I understand in the actual hand your checkraise didnt work, but I still think it is the best play for the 2 reasons I mentioned, and the vast majority of times the villain will bet when you check.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
how many hands could he have? its not like hes raising a gutshot or a flush draw on a rainbow board.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed, but I can see him doing it with a hand like QJ to try to spook you into a bad fold. i suppose he coud raise to get rid of the limpers, but i am having a hard time givng them hands. I suppose JT is a definite possibility, as is QJ or KJ. i guess open-limping just confuses me. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yes, but i agree with everyone that donking is better. im used to playing against opposition that autobets the turn with an ace.

[/ QUOTE ]
I just want to say that I strongly disagree with betting the turn, When youre raised on the flop, on a board with no flush draw, and no possible OESD, its pretty obvious you are up against an Ace most of the time here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What aces are we up against that aren't 3-betting PF? AJ, AT and MAYBE AQ?

EDIT: I suppose Axs is another possibility, but aren't those hands in a WA/WB situation that want a cheap SD?

[stigmata]

[ QUOTE ]
On the turn you very likely have the best hand with your two pair, and most opponents will bet this turn if you check to them.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem here is that:

A) hero raised in the SB
B) the villain is a decent player
C) the board is AQxK.

Look at it from villains perspective -- what is hero raising in the SB that we beat? We are either way ahead of JJ/TT etc, or way behind of AK, AA, KK, KQ etc.

There is a very high probablity that villain is going to want to get to showdown cheap, and will check the turn, making the turn donkbet correct IMHO.

[Lmn55d]

he was the BB, he didn't open limp

[arod15]

Bet the turn check call the rivier....

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On the turn you very likely have the best hand with your two pair, and most opponents will bet this turn if you check to them.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem here is that:

A) hero raised in the SB
B) the villain is a decent player
C) the board is AQxK.

Look at it from villains perspective -- what is hero raising in the SB that we beat? We are either way ahead of JJ/TT etc, or way behind of AK, AA, KK, KQ etc.

There is a very high probablity that villain is going to want to get to showdown cheap, and will check the turn, making the turn donkbet correct IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]
I see what you are saying and based on your assumptions your strategy looks right, but based on the orginal post I see no proof that the villain is a decent player unless you are basing this off his stats. Maybe you are right, but I do know this much, most players will bet this turn 90% of the time or more, decent or not, and against this opponent, going for the checkraise is much better than betting out especially since a checkraise may get our opponent to lay down a live 8 outer which would be wonderful for our hand, betting out cannot accomplish this. And given the fact that checkraising also gets more money in the pot when the hero is called, checkraising looks to me like the optimal strategy in this situation. Maybe I am wrong against this particular opponent but against 90% of the competition out there i strongly think betting out is not the best strategy.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yes, but i agree with everyone that donking is better. im used to playing against opposition that autobets the turn with an ace.

[/ QUOTE ]
I just want to say that I strongly disagree with betting the turn, When youre raised on the flop, on a board with no flush draw, and no possible OESD, its pretty obvious you are up against an Ace most of the time here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What aces are we up against that aren't 3-betting PF? AJ, AT and MAYBE AQ?

EDIT: I suppose Axs is another possibility, but aren't those hands in a WA/WB situation that want a cheap SD?

[/ QUOTE ]
This villain called out of the BB, which means he can have potentially any ace here, and we are not in a WA/WB situation. We are in a situation where we are likely to be ahead but our opponent is likely to have 8 outs to beat us, and if a checkraise may make him lay down his top pair weak kicker in this large pot then the hero must go for the checkraise, however if the villain is smart enough to check behind, then betting out is obviously the superior play.

[J.A.Sucker]

I think you misplayed every street, but the flop is OK considering your preflop raise.