I think I push small edges too much in SSNL

[PoBoy321]

So I've been running awfully lately. I think that one leak I've been having is pushing in too many situations postflop where I have a big draw and am either slightly ahead or slightly behind. Examples: pushing A /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gif on a K /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif where I am confident that my villain has KQ and I know that I'm like 45% to win or in the same example where I would have 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif and am slightly ahead to win. I think my problem is that I'm overestimating my FE in these situations and am just turning into a huge LAG.

Any thoughts?

[Mercman572]

as long as you have the bank roll and can stomach the variance its not too bad. you know the problem so adress it more carefull in assessing. how strong are these villains you're coming on top of? alot of times they won't account for the fact that you're betting into strength and fold because of it.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
So I've been running awfully lately. I think that one leak I've been having is pushing in too many situations postflop where I have a big draw and am either slightly ahead or slightly behind. Examples: pushing A /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gif on a K /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif where I am confident that my villain has KQ and I know that I'm like 45% to win or in the same example where I would have 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif and am slightly ahead to win. I think my problem is that I'm overestimating my FE in these situations and am just turning into a huge LAG.

Any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you're favored in both situations against KQo. If that's your read, then play within your bankroll and put the money in I suppose. Variance is a strumpet, however; it's the decisions that count.

[PoBoy321]

[ QUOTE ]

Well, you're favored in both situations against KQo. If that's your read, then play within your bankroll and put the money in I suppose. Variance is a strumpet, however; it's the decisions that count.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoops, I actually screwed up the example. I should have A /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/club.gif in the first example so that I only have overcard+FD, now pair + FD. Anyway, my question is that these situations are mainly profitable because of fold equity and I'm wondering if I'm just overestimating my FE in these situations

[Mercman572]

how many hands against an opponent does it take for you to make this move?

[BobboFitos]

bankroll
+EV is +EV... no?

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
bankroll
+EV is +EV... no?

[/ QUOTE ]
You need to look at the long hall. Yes, these situations are +EV and it can't be too bad to push in them. However, most opponents who will call a push with KQ here will also pay you off when you hit. So you can be MORE +EV by calling instead of pushing. They also will not protect their hands on the turn often even giving you a FREE look at the river. Also, if you are like me, losing a big pot to a guy who makes what should be a bad call with KQ here will likely set me tilting and I will lose much more money. So I have completely stopped making these pushes. I am happier and richer for it.

[Mercman572]

[ QUOTE ]
bankroll
+EV is +EV... no?

[/ QUOTE ]

theoretically yeah, but that assumes a continuum. realistically taking coonflips with possibly no fold equity could have you on the worse end of the coinflip, and you could be losing these coinflips when you're ahead as well. In the short run these losses can compound and be aggravating and lead to worse decisions. the bad end of this variance if it continues is devastating. I still take marginaly + EV, but make sure it IS positive

[Mercman572]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
bankroll
+EV is +EV... no?

[/ QUOTE ]
You need to look at the long hall. Yes, these situations are +EV and it can't be too bad to push in them. However, most opponents who will call a push with KQ here will also pay you off when you hit. So you can be MORE +EV by calling instead of pushing. They also will not protect their hands on the turn often even giving you a FREE look at the river. Also, if you are like me, losing a big pot to a guy who makes what should be a bad call with KQ here will likely set me tilting and I will lose much more money. So I have completely stopped making these pushes. I am happier and richer for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very good point. As Doyle instructs in SS, "Never gamble with poor players"

[Scott_Baio]

I might be incorrectly reading something into the way you framed this,

but I think some of your running bad may be from judging equity based on actual outcomes. If you shove with mid pair + FD and your opponent calls with TPGK, you can say to yourself, "meh I was favored and variance.. etc" but the push could well have been -EV (or at the very least, not the most +EV play you could make against that opponent) depending on the range of hands he is likely to have + the range of hands he calls/folds with.

Again... I'm not saying this is necessarily the case for you, but it is something that is often overlooked.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
bankroll
+EV is +EV... no?

[/ QUOTE ]
You need to look at the long hall. Yes, these situations are +EV and it can't be too bad to push in them. However, most opponents who will call a push with KQ here will also pay you off when you hit. So you can be MORE +EV by calling instead of pushing. They also will not protect their hands on the turn often even giving you a FREE look at the river. Also, if you are like me, losing a big pot to a guy who makes what should be a bad call with KQ here will likely set me tilting and I will lose much more money. So I have completely stopped making these pushes. I am happier and richer for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

good post

[TheRegulat0r]

I think you're overestimating your opponents ability to lay down when your draws come in. Rather than pushing over the top with a flush draw and an overcard, just call. This is a lot more profitable in some situations, especially against the bad ones that can't fold TPTK no matter what the river brings. When you hit, you'll get a solid value bet out or nearly all of them, and stack the donkier ones. When you miss, you fold, top off, and go back to work. I typically only take the extremely aggressive line when I know my opponent is decent, which isn't all that often in the games I play in.