Help me evaluate this fantasy trade, please

[jedinite]

Priest Holmes, Rudi Johnson and Joe Jurevicius
for
Randy Moss, Clinton Portis, and Tatum Bell

I'm on the Holmes/Johnson/JJ side and being offered Moss/etc.

Its a gamble with Moss' injury status, but in terms of average points per game its pretty much a wash - but I think Moss has bigger longterm upside if he is in fact healthy, and Holmes, Rudi and JJ all have downsides.

For other RBs I have LaMont Jordan (who is outscoring Priest by 5ppg) and Kevin Jones. For other WRs I have Santana Moss (our league's #1 WR), Eddie Kennison and Antonio Bryant.

I'm in a league format here where you start all your players, and then your top two RBs are auto-selected and your top three WRs are auto-selected to count. So I can trade consistent performance for streaky performance to some level - i don't have to start my best two RBs each week, for example.

let me know what you think, any help appreciated.

[MEbenhoe]

do you play in a keeper league? if so how many keepers do you get? whats the rest of your team look like?

[jedinite]

No keepers.

here's my full roster along with player rankings and average points:

http://performify.com/fanball.png

We start all players, we count the top 1 QB, 2 RB, 3WR, 1K, 1D

TE can be used as a WR.

[jedinite]

Not sure if this is enough to be a factor, but this league undervalues touchdowns / overvalues yards compared to most leagues i've seen: 1 TD = 50 yards rushing or receiving (compared to 1TD = 60 yards in most leagues I've seen). Not a huge factor but a slight factor possibly.

[Victor]

tatum and portis are a far worse combo than priest and rudi.

moss compared to jurivecious does not overcome this.

[Punker]

I think Priest and Rudy are both getting heat in their starting jobs and Jurevicius is clearly a short term starter. I'd take the deal, but I'm very high on Bell. I also think your WR situation needs upgrading and you can afford to take a little off your RBs.

[benkath1]

I voted yes, but I think I would stick with what you've got, strictly on a playoff strategy. I like the schedule in the last 4 weeks of the season of the players you have, better than what you would be trading for. If your playoffs start in week 14, that is.

[wonderwes]

It is unknown how bad Randy Moss' injury is. How do you think you would play with a groin injury?

[Victor]

just so you dont do anything stupid you should realize that moss is a huge question mark right now. remember last year. his injury lingered all year and he sucked. worst of all he started most games but would have to stop or just not produce.

dont do this trade, especially right now.

[jedinite]

Thanks for all the feedback. Overall, my thought process in considering this trade has been pretty much what's been mentioned here:

I'm pretty strong at RB, not necessarily ridiculously strong but besides QB (where i've got the #1 and #3) I've got the most strength at RB and the most opportunity to improve at WR.

Essentially in this trade I'd be swapping Priest for Moss, trading my #2 RB for a top ten (and hopefully top five by the end of the season) WR. With Portis and Bell I'd consider a general wash at the level of Rudi, so I'd have one top tier RB in Jordan, and three mid-tier RBs in Portis, Bell and K.Jones (who will hopefully step up soon).

Of course, the Moss injury situation makes the whole deal a question mark - if Randy comes back and performs to a higher level (or even the level he has in four of the five games he's played in) I think the trade is more valuable to me than my opponent. of course, if Randy doesn't come back and perform, then my opponent gets the better side of this deal.

Thanks again for the feedback.