Do I make a stand w/ ATo?

[happyjaypee]

Live NL HE Tourney, last 2 tables, 9 left of 37, tourney pays top 7 places. Blinds are 400/800 whit 50 ante. My table is 5 handed and I'm in SB whit ATo. I'm actually in 8th position whit T4250 left after posting. Lower stack is at other table. Final table will be 8-handed so we're waiting for 1 player to bust.

Chip leader is utg+1 whit around 27K and makes it 3000. Whit 87,000 in total chips, he as controle of the table and as been raising a lot.

Folded to me in SB whit ATo. Only BB is to be eared of, he is 2nd chips leader and as been staying out of the leaders's way. Do I make a stand now, going all-in, knowing the chips leader will obviously call, and try to win T10,350 (assuming BB will fold) or wait for the final table since I get button next rnd and if the other low stack bust you'll get more play time on the 8-handed before paying the blinds???

thx


-Happy /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif

[ohkanada]

5 handed against the chip leader who has 1/3 of the chips and has been raising a lot I would likely call with ATo in the SB.

Ken Poklitar

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

The factor that jumps out at me is that the lower stack is at the table with fewer players. The blinds will eat him up faster; he's more desperate than you. Fold. You're going to have to take a stand soon, but I'd rather be the aggressor.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

I think it depends upon the payout structure. If the payouts are especially top-heavy, I would go all-in here as I expect to be about a 3:2 favorite over the chip leader's total range of hands. If the payout is more evenly distributed than is typical, I would fold.

The main reason to fold is not so much to wait for the other short stack to bust, but because by folding you will still have about T4000 to raise with during the next 3 hands. If I'm the first one in, and there is a decent chance the blinds will fold, I'm going to be raising with anything on at least one of those hands. How likely it is that the blinds will fold is probably more important than how strong your hand is.

If there is very little chance that you'll be able to steal the blinds in the next 3 hands, I'd be much more inclined to go for it now with AT.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[happyjaypee]

The payouts were as follow:

35%
22.5%
12.5%
10%
8%
6.5%
5.5%

I was the host of that tourney and we were supposed to held a 7-handed final table. But the tourney was on the 2nd floor and the final table in a private salon whit a real poker table. Because the tourney lasted longer then expected and regular clients were starting to arrive, we had to go to the private salon as soon as posible. That's why we had uneven table and a 8-handed final table.

You guys all brought up interesting points. I knew I could fold and wait but decided I needed chips to be a contender at the final table. I actually pushed all-in against the chip leader who is my best budy and co-host for the tourney.

He called, showed A7o vs my ATo and spiked a 7 on the flop. No help and I'm out. We don't soft play each other but he was sad busting me. We discussed the hand a lot and he thought I could have fold and waited. He argued that Skill wise I was in the top 3 of the remaining field and could have waited for a better spot. But I replyed It was the good spot I had been waiting for and that I was pretty sure I had the best hand. He said pretty sure was not enought on the bubble in those circonstances.

At first I though I had done the right move but wanted a second opinion.


-Happy /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Given the flatness of the payout structure, I would fold. However, if you were that certain you would be the 3:1 favorite, calling can't be wrong.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[happyjaypee]

Given the flatness of the payout structure, I would fold.

70% for top 3 is a flat payout?

What would you consider a heavy payout whit 7 plrs payed?


-Happy /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Making the money gave him 5.5%. The next few jumps were all much less, something like 1.5% more, then 2% more, etc. While there is a big jump for the top 3, there is also a big jump for getting into the money, and then a series of very small bumps. Since he has little hope of moving into the top 3, it's these next few increases that matter most.

I didn't word it very well. I should have said the flatness of the lower payouts AFTER the relatively big jump for the first payout.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Al_Capone_Junior]

I would absolutely fold here. Even if the chip leader has a completely random hand, you're still not going to be a huge favorite, which means often you'll bust. You should wait for the other players to bust out because you're so close to the $$.

[happyjaypee]

Ok now I get it.

Thx for the advices all. As always, it's appreciated.


-Happy /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif