Call this river raise? Flush with paired board on river

50NL Full Ring Ultimate Bet

Hero and Villain both have $50. Villain is in MP and I haven’t noticed him doing anything crazy. Hero is in BB.

Preflop: Villain limps in MP, button calls, SB completes, and Hero checks in BB with 10s 2s.

($2) Flop: Ks Jh 3s

checked to Villain who bets $1, folded around to Hero who calls.

($4) Turn: Ks Jh 3s 5s

Hero checks, Villain checks. [I don’t know why I checked. I bet here about 99% of the time, so I know that was stupid.]

($4) River: Ks Jh 3s 5s Jd

Hero bets $4 and Villain raises to $14, Hero?

[swedeD]

Hmm, tough one. Your check on turn makes this a lot harder. He can have AJ and think you don't have the flush because you checked. But I think he filled up. Would he really overbet that much without a house or a better flush? With AJ he would probably just minraise trying to extract more froma a hopefully worse hand. If he is trying to steal, why was he checking on turn? Well, I think I would fold this one.

[Hattifnatt]

instacall imo

[swedeD]

because?

yeah, why instacall?

This hand happened a couple of days ago and has been bothering me every since. In part, because I donk checked the turn (this is exactly the reason why I always bet the turn), but also because I think this is a tough decision.

[Hattifnatt]

Because I think villian (we don't have very much info on him though) woulda bet the turn with 2 pair or a set. But OK, it's not an insta call in retrospect, a call though IMO.

[ QUOTE ]
Because I think villian (we don't have very much info on him though) woulda bet the turn with 2 pair or a set. But OK, it's not an insta call in retrospect, a call though IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is definitely a valid consideration. I guess some of what i was thinking was that it was entirely possible that he checked behind on the turn with top two. He could easily have thought that I was on the draw and made it on the turn, which was of course true. If he was in fact worried about the flush, he could have checked the turn and then raised the river with the boat.

I think he could have also hit a better flush on the turn and decided to slowplay it and then played it real fast on the river even with the pair on board.

But he could also have bet the flop with something like A-J and just be overplaying trips on the river...I don't know. That's why this has been bothering me.

Well, you already said it yourself: bet the turn.

As played, though, I definitely call this. I don't see villain playing flopped 2 pair or set this way.

[wdeadwyler]

Villain looks much more likely to play ja-j10 than a set/2 pair this way.

[amoeba]

I think this is a call.

and I would be more afraid of higher flush than a boat.

[swedeD]

Good point. Villian can be pretty sure hero didn't filled up after river when hero haven't showed any strength except for the river bet. He is maybe putting hero on JT or something like that and is trying to extract maximum after his semibluff earlier.

Still I'm having trouble picturing villian having a hand worse than hero. Would he really make a semibluff-bet with a weak flush draw hand like 67s with many players in the pot and in full ring and then after the turn, check behind and give hero a free card and maybe get a better flush than him (if another spade falls)?

[ QUOTE ]
Good point. Villian can be pretty sure hero didn't filled up after river when hero haven't showed any strength except for the river bet. He is maybe putting hero on JT or something like that and is trying to extract maximum after his semibluff earlier.

Still I'm having trouble picturing villian having a hand worse than hero. Would he really make a semibluff-bet with a weak flush draw hand like 67s with many players in the pot and in full ring and then after the turn, check behind and give hero a free card and maybe get a better flush than him (if another spade falls)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this is a good point too. This thread had me convinced to call but now I'm not sure again...damn. I guess it could go either way, and I don't think it's terrible huge either way. I still don't know.

I ended up folding. I figured I had only put abot 10bb in and I didn't really want to but 20bb more in. For some reason at the time, I really felt like I was beat. I'm not exactly sure why, but I did. This hand still bothers me though.

[dtbog]

Since you checked the turn, call the river and wish you'd bet the turn.

I think he has a jack enough of the time here at 50 NL for call to be correct.