$22, ITM, AK, giant stack conundrum

[brimstone1]

$22, ITM, AK.

I've been fending off Deb_won's very weak "big stack" moves. I just did so again by pushing into him when he completed in the previous hand.

Basically, he's been loose and weak. Several hands that took place earlier have made him fold his SB to me many times +level 4, so I also sorta feel I have FE here.

Level:5 Blinds(75/150)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 3
Seat 8: Deb_won ( $5715 )
Seat 2: HERO ( $1690 )
Seat 6: mousahelo3 ( $595 )
Blinds(75/150)
Dealt to HERO [ Ac Kd ]
Deb_won raises [300].
HERO...?

I'll post what I did, and my thinking behind it after some replies.

Before someone says it, obviously this would've been a much easier answer had the short stack been UTG, with less than 1BB left. But unfortunately, this was a quick game and we've been ITM since 25/50.

(I've also highlighted the reason this hand might be interesting, only for those who have recently joined our 2+2/STT community.)

[tigerite]

If you consider him to be weak-tight, even if he folds this 50% of the time he needs to be min-raising the top 27% of hands to push this.

Not too likely.

[brimstone1]

[ QUOTE ]
If you consider him to be weak-tight, even if he folds this 50% of the time he needs to be min-raising the top 27% of hands to push this.

Not too likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

So its not even close? Pooosh^2?

[tigerite]

No, I mean this is probably a fold given your read on him. Unless he folds more than 50% of the time, his range will be too tight compared to how much he calls.

I push this every time, and I'm not considering a fold.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
I push this every time, and I'm not considering a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Usually, yes. But in this case we actually have a read, and I've done the calculations (which I can show if you really want) to prove even with a 50% fold, his minraise must mean 22+,A2+,K9+,K6s+,QTs+,JTs. (i.e. he calls with top 50% of that) For this player I think this is too loose a range, and I can't see him folding more than 50%, even given his passive nature.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
I push this every time, and I'm not considering a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

By the way, would you call if he had pushed?

[Sabrazack]

This is not the bubble. I definately push this since you are saying he was loose. You already have third secure, push it and get his chips.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
This is not the bubble. I definately push this since you are saying he was loose. You already have third secure, push it and get his chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a classic mistake people make. ITM is a mini bubble of its own with payouts of 0.75/0.25/0

[brimstone1]

Wait.

I don't consider him to be weak-tight.

He's worse than that. He's weak-loose.

He'll play a tremendous amount of hands, and play them very passively.

Specifically here, I was putting him on:
66+, K9o+/KTs+, A2o+, JTs/JQo.

The reason I hesitated was because of the short stack, but as soon as I realized the shorty wasn't in any imminent danger (<1BB, so forth), I knew I had to take the +chipEV, and that it probably wasn't going to be one of those situations where its +chipEV but -$EV.

If I double up here, I'm ~3300, he's ~4000, and we have a tiny stack to push around between us.

But if I folded, the possibility of shorty doubling up from the loose giant stack and becoming an actual threat to me was real. If he did double up, he'd be 1200ish vs. my 1500 -- I'd probably have to drop the lower end of my shorty calling range, giving him tremendous FE.

And then typing all of this... I think of how people find the $22s to be ridiculously easy, and beat them 16 tabling on their lunch break. sigh. So on a side note, am I giving way too much thought into this level?

[tigerite]

Ah. Well, in that case, if you think his min raise is quite a large range and he folds 50% or above, the push is fine.

If he had pushed all-in however, you do realise, you shouldn't call with AK here even if he had 32o. You need to be a 67% favourite.

And you should never be thinking about chipEV until you are heads up!

In this situation the short stack is pretty much forced all in even with marginal holdings, and if you were to call as well it would be fairly hard to pass up an opportunity to triple up with so few chips, however, were you to raise in this position the short stack may believe that he could squeek by into 2nd if the big stack busts you, so by raising you may scare a weak player out here which is not what you would like to see.

I think calling and expecting the short stack to raise all in is the best option here, here's why.

If you re-raise all in and the short stack folds and the big stack beats you you've probably lost $20 you could've had if you had just folded.

If you fold, and the short stack doubles up you'll kick yourself for folding, if you fold and the short stack loses then the play worked fine, but you can't assume that the big stack has even a decent hand with a min-raise that could just be an attempt to steal blinds.

If you call, short stack raises all in and the big stack folds you're in the position you want to be in and have a good chance of knocking out the short stack.

If you call and the short stack folds you still have the option of getting away from the hand on an unfavorable flop, or possibly stealing the chips in the pot if the big stack were just trying to steal.

If you call and the short stack raises all-in and then the chip leader puts you all in (although I think this is unlikely unless he holds a monster, since he'll be glad to have another hand drawing against the short stacks hand to increase his chances of securing another $20) I'd still call since chances are neither the short stack nor the chip leader have hands that dominate AK, and winning the short stacks money and doubling up off the big stack would put you in good position to win the tournament, whereas if you were to fold after the big stack raised you all in you'd be left with 1390 in chips, and with a much smaller chance of winning the tournament, and a smaller chance of eliminating the short stack in the all-in situation and you may then be facing someone with nearly equal chips to you if the shorty wins.

[tigerite]

Now this is good advice.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I push this every time, and I'm not considering a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

By the way, would you call if he had pushed?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes I would

[tigerite]

Well, would it surprise you to know you have to be a 67% favourite against his range to call here?

If he pushes you fold, ICM blatantly says this.

67% against what range? If I lay down AK here I don't see me getting 1st.

[tigerite]

ANY RANGE! Go on and do the maths..

Haven't done the math. I have no reason not to believe you, since you've done the math. Guess I have a leak calling with A high here.

[brimstone1]

You would sincerely call an all-in here by the big stack with AX?

eeh, no. I would call with AK, which is also an ace high hand /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Yeah, playing to win the tournament AK is probably your best shot here.

[tigerite]

Put it this way, if I was the short stack, I'd love to see you call with AK here if the big stack pushed.

I meant I'd push AK here if the short stack were to go all in after I called the big stacks raise, rather not risk my tournament on what is essentially a drawing hand when someone has almost 1/3 of my stack, but with the extra money from the short stack in there if he goes all-in I'd be glad to do it because then I'd be in a much better position to take 1st.

[mosdef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is not the bubble. I definately push this since you are saying he was loose. You already have third secure, push it and get his chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a classic mistake people make. ITM is a mini bubble of its own with payouts of 0.75/0.25/0

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, but a big part of the effectiveness of bubble pushing is that people fold out of fear of finishing 4th. the fear often vanishes when they're in the money so it really doesn't work with the same way as a "mini-bubble", whether it should or not is not relevant. so you need to adjust your play ITM to reflect that your opponents will call with a much wider range than they will with 4 or 5 players left. while i agree with you that we should think of ITM as a fight for .75/.25/0, we shouldn't play it as aggressively as another bubble since calling ranges are wider. irrationally wider, but wider.

obviously it's all stack and opponent dependent too. a common exception to my statement above would be 3 handed with even stacks. many opponents will play fairly tight in this situation.