Hypothetical Hand, QQ top set river plan

[DavidC]

You're playing live at a B&M, maybe 10-20, or 20-40. Considering that the lowwest limit spread is 5-10, and there are some very weak players at the 10-20, this isn't so bad... We'll assume 20-40 (which would play similar to a 3-6 online game).

There are two villains in this hand. The guy directly to your left is an LPP. He's really unbelievably horrible, and loves to call, but he's a nice guy, chats up the table, and is a local businessman. He's always welcome here. Franky, I feel bad about calling him a villain.

The other guy, who does deserve to be called a villain, is a slightly slightly loose, aggressive, professional player. Post-flop, he's a little more passive against you, because you're a tight maniac who bets maybe just a little too much.

----------------------------

Hero is UTG with Q /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and raises. LPP is in UTG+1 and calls, a loosish player in MP calls, and villain on the button three-bets. Blinds fold, you cap, and everyone calls.

Flop: Q /images/graemlins/club.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 players, 17.5 SB.

You bet, LPP calls, MP calls, villain raises, you re-raise, LPP calls, MP folds, villain caps, everyone calls.

Turn: 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3 players, 15.25bb.

You bet, LPP calls, villain calls.

River: T /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Hero?

[POKhER]

I bet and call a raise, Nh.

Grunching...

Hero bets. My only fear would be that the real Villian has AK here to make his str8, but I don't think he would have capped that flop with only AK (or would he bet that strong draw knowing our table rep?) I'd still be the river and call a re-raise. To slow up only shows weakness (A lesson I'v been learning the hard way recently).

[DavidC]

I think the money play here is to check-call vs the LPP and to checkraise the villain.

[Paxosmotic]

Huh? There's about a 1 in 50 chance that the LPP has AK here, and the Villain has AA or KK. I bet this every time.

[POKhER]

why check call/Raise? And how can you C/C LPP, But CR the villan?

I dont want to give a freeshowdown to anyone with missed draws/Crap hands.

I also don't want to check/raise a opponent with AKo as i'm not folding my hand.

I think betting and calling a raise is bet, Maybe even 3bet but thats very debateable.

AK here, Do you think villan raises 4way for equity?

[lautzutao]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the money play here is to check-call vs the LPP and to checkraise the villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the weak play that exposes you to the least amount of risk. Checking this through with the probable best hand is a nightmare. I'd bet here with the intention of calling LPP and 3-betting LAA

If Hero bets just a little too much and villian slows down because you're a maniac, there's no way villian caps this flop with AK or any unmade hand for that matter.

I bet\3bet. I expect AQ, AJ, KQ, JJ, AA, KK, a lot.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
Huh? There's about a 1 in 50 chance that the LPP has AK here, and the Villain has AA or KK. I bet this every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMHO, LPP will bet the river with JJ,TT,66,44, QJ, JT, AK, and 98. We only lose to AK and 98. I'm going to give all pairs an equal probability, and all non-pairs an equal probability. I'm also going to say that he'll likely only three-bet with AK, but call a checkraise with any other hand that he bets. By "likely" I mean that we have to call a three-bet, but that there's a really good chance that we'll lose. I'll also say that he will call two cold on the river with many of the hands that would call one bet with.

Given this information on the LPP, I don't know if checkraising him is a good idea or a bad idea... so I chose check-call, but I don't know the exact equity vs his betting range: I hadn't crunched the numbers on it, but just now I just plugged it into pokerstove, and the stove tells me I have a 42.857% chance against his range, so it means that checkraising the LPP is not good (though betting would be best HU because he'll probably only raise AK and he'll call with SO many more hands).

I'm also going to say that LPP would not try to checkraise villain with the nuts once I gave up initiative and villain had previously been calling down...

Our reads are the same on the villain, which gives him 50% KK and 50% AA. My guess is that villain will bet if we check to him, unless the LPP bets into him, in which case he'll call for the overcall, as he thinks he's ahead of us on the river now.

Given the villain's likely hand and action (though I'm not 100% sure that he will bet with KK), we should always checkraise the villain if it were HU... in fact, if we knew that he would never bet KK but always bet AA, and that he would always call with both, and our reads on his hand range are accurate, I'd still say checkraise this river even though it's the same EV as betting, just to build an image so that we can check marginal hands to him in the future and be confident in folding if he bets.

I honestly think, though, that villain will have a tough time putting us on AA or a set after we check, and therefore he'll probably bet out with both AA and KK, and since LPP will call two cold (remember I said that he was HORRIBLE, not bad) with a lot of hands, and once he checks we're really only afraid of 98 for the straight, I feel that the money play:

... is the checkraise the villain, and to check-call vs the LPP.

(I just ran another stove sim. I kept the same hand range on LPP, but changed the board to make it QT762, so that we only lost to 98 in his range, and it shows that he has about a 25.397% chance of having 98.

--Dave.

Edit: [censored], fuckity, [censored]-[censored]! LPP could have K9!

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the money play here is to check-call vs the LPP and to checkraise the villain.

[/ QUOTE ]
I guess you're checking beacause you're sure Button will bet his AA/KK/AQ for you if LPP checks. I can see the point if we were actually fearing the holding of LPP, but since we have absolutely no reason to do so I think it's just bad poker risking this getting checked through.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
AK here, Do you think villan raises 4way for equity?

[/ QUOTE ]

There's two fundamental errors with the analysis that I've put forth already (the long one):

1) Villain could have AK, and have tried for a free card on the flop / been raising for equity with something like AKs with a backdoor flush. However, the specific villain I had in mind when I designed this scenario isn't really up to date on the concepts in SSHE and probably wouldn't do that. He also knows that I'll hammer back at him with an OESD or something like that, KK, whatever. I'm not slowing down until the turn in this pot... so he knows he's going to get hurt if he tries to push a weak hand here. He probably wouldn't be CAPPING the flop (though he may raise it once) with AKs backdoor flush.

2) The pot is large enough on the turn that he may be chasing a set with TT, but unfortunately, he wouldn't have capped TT on the flop. This may or may not screw up our hand range on villain, but he would probably still bet TT on the river, when he rivered his set. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

--Dave.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont want to give a freeshowdown to anyone with missed draws/Crap hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're giving free showdowns to crap hands, but not to busted draws.

--Dave.

Edit: giving free showdowns to crap hands is not desireable... that's not what I'm trying to say. What I'm trying to say is that you're not giving free showdowns to busted draws, as busted draws aren't calling you on the river anyways.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the money play here is to check-call vs the LPP and to checkraise the villain.

[/ QUOTE ]
I guess you're checking beacause you're sure Button will bet his AA/KK/AQ for you if LPP checks. I can see the point if we were actually fearing the holding of LPP, but since we have absolutely no reason to do so I think it's just bad poker risking this getting checked through.

[/ QUOTE ]

My opinion here, and I'm still in the process of forumulating it, has been called into question by this.

I don't think villain will bet AQ on this river. However, I'm not sure that he would cap the flop with it.

If we make villain's range AQ/AA/KK, our chances are much better of villain checking through the river, which would, of course, be disastrous. Edit: meaning that we should be betting this river.

I'm not checking here because I'm afraid of the LPP. I'm checking to try to make up to 4 bets on this river.

--Dave.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
LPP will bet the river with JJ,TT,66,44, QJ, JT, AK, and 98. We only lose to AK and 98.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think I didn't get how extreme the read on LPP was. if he's equaly likely to call AK, 98, QJ and JJ preflop and equally likely to end up on the river in this hand with a gut-shot for the bottom end straight as a set of Js plus he'll call 2 cold with a wide range of hands when you check/raise the river I think your line is correct.

[ QUOTE ]
JJ,TT,66,44, QJ, JT, AK, and 98

[/ QUOTE ]
To this riverbetting range I'd like to add K9, QT, 22 and remove 44 (a type-o, I'm aware).

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
If we make villain's range AQ/AA/KK, our chances are much better of villain checking through the river, which would, of course, be disastrous.

[/ QUOTE ]
He's not equally likely to cap AQ, and since there's only 4 combos of it available I think discounting it to 1-1.5 combos would be approriate on the river.

Interesting post, but I think you need to discount the probablity of LPP holding hands like 98 and 66 on the river.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
He's not equally likely to cap AQ, and since there's only 4 combos of it available I think discounting it to 1-1.5 combos would be approriate on the river.

Interesting post, but I think you need to discount the probablity of LPP holding hands like 98 and 66 on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is fair. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's not equally likely to cap AQ, and since there's only 4 combos of it available I think discounting it to 1-1.5 combos would be approriate on the river.

Interesting post, but I think you need to discount the probablity of LPP holding hands like 98 and 66 on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is fair. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

One thing, though... it appears that vs a standard LPP that we may see at the tables on party, this is a good spot to bet out and call a raise... I can live with that.

--Dave.

[lautzutao]

[ QUOTE ]
IMHO, LPP will bet the river with JJ,TT,66,44, QJ, JT, AK, K9 and 98

[/ QUOTE ]
fyp


LPP will not bet that river with a set of Jacks if he has it...he would have raised you with a set on the turn if he did.

If he hit the set of sixes, he would have raised here as well. Passive players don't often wait for the river to raise their best hands, for fear of that card coming that ruins them.

He raises exactly 3 hands on this river, and calls with every single possible hand a calling station would call with AK, K9, and 89...He might not even raise 89 fearing you have AK The Aggressive player is raising a much larger frequency here, and a potential 3-bet here is something to think about given his range of raise hands here.

Look, Calling stations call with T6, because that's what they do: call. LPP isn't slowplaying a monster till the river!


Listen to what you're saying David:

[ QUOTE ]
"You're giving free showdowns to crap hands, but not busted draws"

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you want to give a free card here to anyone!
You can't let it happen and be profitable in the long run

You said it yourself in your monster post on profiting off of bad players, we make money off of bad players making mistakes frequently

You have to give yourself the opportunity to do that here by betting

[DavidC]

You're right about jacks, sixes and fours probably checkraising me on the turn. Maybe not with the lowwer sets, as they may be afraid of QQ/JJ, but definitely jacks would hammer me, either with a raise on the flop or the turn.

I also think you're right about further restricting some of the ranges that uber-lpp will bet for us. We'll probably have ot get rid of some of the weaker hands.

In the case of the villain, he probably makes his money from me when I raise AA on the turn and he three-bets with QQ, and I make my money from him when I checkraise the river with QQ. He probably gets the best of it over time. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Vs the LPP, I get their money when they sit down. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
You're right about jacks, sixes and fours probably checkraising me on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
Raising anywhere in this hand with pocket 4s would be terribly overaggressive, do you see why? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're right about jacks, sixes and fours probably checkraising me on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
Raising anywhere in this hand with pocket 4s would be terribly overaggressive, do you see why? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Want to know what's funny? I originally put 2s in there, then edited it out because I thought I'd screwed it up.