Aces up facing raise on river

[pokernicus]

My read is that villain is semi-loose. He tends to raise with a real hand, and just calls otherwise. What are the thoughts on how to play the river -- especially facing the raise. Do I three-bet, call, or fold?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button folds, BB folds, UTG folds.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls.

River: (7.75 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO folds, Hero??

Final Pot: 11.75 BB

[milesdyson]

3-bet and call a cap. he has K5 or K8 (K2 even?) a lot more often than A8/AK/AA/KK/55/22/88/34.

What are you afraid of here? He would have raised KK preflop, and given you a lot more action on earlier streets too, so KK is not a likely hand. Same goes for AK.

He probably spiked a lower two pair than yours.
I'd re-raise that river I think, or atleast call it.

I guess he could have slowplayed 88 too but that would be stupid play.

Grunching...

My instinct says 3-bet. if he caps call. I estimating him at KK or a lower two pair. If he has AK oh well - but I think he would have reraised with that on the flop.

[Shillx]

Well it is too bad that you just called here. You lost .9 BB or whatever by not reraising.

Brad

[TomBrooks]

Three bet is good unless MP is one of those guys that slowplays sets or TPTK and limps AK.

Since you feel he raises with a real hand, three bet.

[DCWildcat]

Definately 3-bet. Most everything you have beat would have already raised, and there are a lot of kings up-ish things he could have improved to here.

[pokernicus]

Thanks for the replies.

You were all definitely correct to 3-bet this -- I missed out on a good value raise opportunity. I didn't realize it was that obvious. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I called and Villain showed K8 for a smaller two pair.

Most of my previous play has been in NLHE cash games, so I was biased by a line that I often see there.

Specifically, in NLHE when someone smooth calls a flop and turn bet, then suddenly raises on the river, they usually have a very strong hand (e.g., at least a set). Of course in NLHE, the river raise is going to be bigger than one bet, so more money can be extracted from playing this way. However, I should have thought better of it since people tend not to slow-play a set in this way in a multi-way pot.

I'm starting to see that this line has a much different interpretation in microlimits limit hold'em. I think any hand I was afraid of would have most likely raised this by the turn. Therefore, I should have been alerted to the fact that the river K helped his hand and which would make K8, K5, or even K2 more likely (as AK and KK would likely have raised pre-flop).

On a separate note, I have noticed that many people limp w/ AK pre-flop. I think that this generally a bad idea -- I ususally raise/re-raise/cap pre-flop with AK. Has anyone else noticed this?

[SlantNGo]

[ QUOTE ]
3-bet and call a cap. he has K5 or K8 (K2 even?) a lot more often than A8/AK/AA/KK/55/22/88/34.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, I just call this... maybe me 1.9 river agg. over 10k hands is actually telling me something useful. I guess I have to push more edges on the river.

[milesdyson]

unless the guy slowplayed AK/A8 or a set the whole way, we have the best hand.

the slowplay usually lasts until the turn. don't get me wrong, some players LOVE to string it out until the end, but most don't. so when you get raised on the river, it's mostly because the river card improved their hand. and in this hand, the only hands that the K improved to beat ours are KK/AK, both of which get raised preflop by almost every player.

3-betting this shouldn't be hard, and while i wouldn't say it's a 0.9 BB mistake (as shill said earlier), it's up there.

Yeah in the heat of the moments I usually just call here, but I think the specific river card makes it so likely that he just made kings up that I think a 3 bet is right. If the river completes a flush or str8 draw I would just call.

[SlantNGo]

What if the river card was a 9? Would you still 3-bet with the straight possibility?

What about if the river was a total brick? i.e. AJ5 flop, turn 2, river 8. Should I still 3-bet despite the set possibility?

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
What if the river card was a 9? Would you still 3-bet with the straight possibility?

[/ QUOTE ]
no, and not only because a new set of 16 hands now beats us (76), but because he could logically play A9 like this as well.

[ QUOTE ]
What about if the river was a total brick? i.e. AJ5 flop, turn 2, river 8. Should I still 3-bet despite the set possibility?

[/ QUOTE ]
now there are less likely limping hands to be improved by the card. J8/A8 is all really, and A8 now beats us. not many players limp 85. i would not raise here, either.

you could count the hands and come to an estimated guess based on those numbers - i'm just trying to show the thought process one would go through during the hand.

good post. With these types of post I really feel I need to step down and single table. Its just that the money is to goot multitabling! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
good post. With these types of post I really feel I need to step down and single table. Its just that the money is to goot multitabling! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Single table for a while and learn. Then it gets a whole lot better.

[David04]

3-bet the river. Call a cap. Drag a nice pot.

[pokernicus]

Along these lines, if your goal is to improve your poker-playing ability and play optimally, then it is better to one-table than to multi-table.

For example, in retrospect, I can see that I clearly misplayed this hand and missed a great opportunity to extract an extra bet (or maybe even two).

Beyond the reasons mentioned here, I should have figured this out for one other reason. I was involved in another pot with the same villain a few hands earlier (in fact, I posted this hand up). Basically, I had AA, flop came AT8. He checked, I bet the flop and he called. The turn was a 9. I bet, he raised, I three-bet, he capped, and I called. The river brought another 9 giving me Aces full. He bet, I raised, he called, showing QJs -- good for a made straight on the turn -- but not good enough to drag down the pot.

So, the villain had demonstrated that he likes betting the turn if he has a made hand by then. Therefore, when he made a river raise, it should have immediately signaled that the K most likely helped him (and that he hadn't been slow-playing). Given that he didn't raise pre-flop, it would then have been very unlikely for him to hold any hand with a K that beats me (i.e., KK or AK). And I likely have best hand which would warrant a value raise.

Anyway, this occured to me later after some reflection on the hand, and I thought I would point that out. I think it's a lot harder to put such pieces together when you multi-table. I'm not saying you always have to put such pieces together to make the correct decision (e.g., in the case of the above hand I posted, I think it was possible to arrive at the correct decision independent of the previous hand played with the same villain), but I am saying it can help better guide you.