What is my flop accion?

[milesdyson]

Button has been at the table for 23 hands. i have not seen him show down a hand. his stats after the small sample are 43/30/1.75.

SB is 82/6/something. 25 hands or so before this he 3-bet bluffed me w/ 98 on a 6J653 river. i didn't note it because i already had this on him:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>called 84hh on J56T f/t to hit rvr 8.
raised TT6 flop w/ J3. TERRIBLE.
no rvbet in pos wn i ckd to him HU. T3 on AT657
-capd K92cc flop 3-w w/ A5cc.
-dbet K3 on A93Q trn 3-w into pfr'r and fl clr.</pre><hr />

UTG is 35/0/1, and is pretty bad. a few hands ago he just called QQ out of the SB to my raise and just called my flop bet on 955. Here are my notes on this player:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>bet TT all streets on QJ6A8 board oop hu.
will play big hands passively pf and on flop.</pre><hr />

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB calls, Hero ???

[ninjaunderwear]

With just 6 SB in the pot and two "takers" with one left to act, I would be surprised if anybody advocated anything other than folding, regardless of any reads.

[gharp]

[ QUOTE ]
With just 6 SB in the pot and two "takers" with one left to act, I would be surprised if anybody advocated anything other than folding, regardless of any reads.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'll advocate calling. Your J outs need to be factored in to that 6:1, and the implied odds on your gutshot are very good, because any A will be married to the idiot end of that straight.

[thesharpie]

I'll guestimate something like 3 outs for the GS, 2 for the jacks, and .5 for the 6 for a total of 5.5 outs. I personally fold but I'm a tight one, and if I'm wrong about the outs it would only take half of an out to an out more to swing it to a call IMO. How many outs does everyone give us for the GS, good overcard, and shady overcard?

Edit: I don't really factor in implied odds much when we're barely getting the odds to call currently and alot of our outs are shady, vulnerable to redraws and could be making a second best hand.

[PokerSparky]

I would give you about 6 outs, so I would peel.

Edit: 6 outs may be a bit too many. Probably closer to 5, but I still think this is a peel.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
regardless of any reads.

[/ QUOTE ]
hahahahahahahahaahhahahahahahahahaha

[ QUOTE ]
the implied odds on your gutshot are very good

[/ QUOTE ]
this is 100% true.

now, naturally i wouldn't have posted this hand if i had missed my gutshot on the turn; however, i think even the turn is intraresting.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) internettexasholdem.com (http://www.internettexasholdem.com)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero ???

[PokerSparky]

I raise and cap if given the opportunity.

Your implied odds are huge if you hit because of the sucker straight. When you hit you will easily make 15sb imo. Peel.

[Nfinity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
regardless of any reads.

[/ QUOTE ]
hahahahahahahahaahhahahahahahahahaha

[ QUOTE ]
the implied odds on your gutshot are very good

[/ QUOTE ]
this is 100% true.

now, naturally i wouldn't have posted this hand if i had missed my gutshot on the turn; however, i think even the turn is intraresting.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) internettexasholdem.com (http://www.internettexasholdem.com)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm rather torn here.

SB is most likely to give us a lot of action on this Turn, if he is currently on a bluff or us betting out 2 diamonds or even has the low end of the straight.

On the other hand, UTG and Button seem like the type to fold when faced with 2 on this board, that is unless one of them has the other end of the straight.

The pot is kinda smallish, so we shouldnt be worried too much about protecting our hand. If any of the 2 guys behind you are even remotely aware of the type of player this guy is,or possibly has a hand, they could be willing to raise, giving you an opportunity to trap some people for a lot of bets.

I'm for smooth call, and I hope I'm right.

Call. SB is already betting your hand for you. Hopefully one of the others raises it for you as well.

Raise the river. If either UTG or Button stay with you on the turn, they're in it for the showdown. SB might then trap them for more as well.

[thesharpie]

Miles, how many outs do you give yourself on the flop? I usually end up folding in these close spots and want to know if there's something I'm missing. Are our implied odds really that good when only about half our outs are to the "pseudo nuts".

I smoothcall the turn, if they have nothing they'll probably fold for 2 cold, and hands that would call for 2 cold might raise anyway.

[sean c]

Easy turn raise.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
Miles, how many outs do you give yourself on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]
not enough to call for 6:1, but i think my implied odds are very good on the gutshot outs. i also feel that my J is worth something like 1.5 outs. so i'd say i have ~5 outs, but that implied odds make up for what my immediate pot odds lack.
[ QUOTE ]
Easy turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
why?

[sean c]

Aggressive button bet the flop sb bet the turn. There is no reason to go for overcalls or try and trap. Button is just as likely to fold here as raise you would at best need both to overcall to gain extra value vs raising and this assumes sb will never 3-bet. An ace may 3-bet i just see no good reason to get fancy here i like jamming the turn.

[MrWookie47]

My first instinct was to just raise away, but in this small pot, I think I agree with you. Any larger and I'd still raise.

[milesdyson]

i just called the turn. utg folded, button called.

river offsuit 3. sb bets, i raise, button calls, sb calls.

button shows A5 and SB has AQ. i think if the board didn't pair on the river that SB 3-bets, and i was surprised button didn't raise the turn.

anyway, 13 bb pot. this is obviously on the large side - i didn't expect this many extra small bets when i decided to call the flop (back when it was 6 sb)

[bozlax]

My initial reaction was "punt." When I think about it, though, and after reading the responses, I s'pose peeling on the flop is ok as UTG is unlikely to raise, so for all intents and purposes you're closing the action, and your implieds are large.

I also agree with sean that the turn is a raise. These guys are going to be so happy to be holding an ace, they aren't even going to think about your holding a 6, but if something "ugly" (like a paired board or an ace) happens on the river they're going to go back into their shells. Also, if they're not holding an ace or a 6 they're probably bailing on the turn, anyway.

[TomBrooks]

Flop: I'll peel counting seven outs to Jacks and the gutshot.

Turn: Raise it. Blow any sevens or flush draws out of there or charge them. If anyone else has an ace, enjoy the war that's going to break out. If SB has the ace, give him the opportunity to three bet you.

EeeHa!

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
button shows A5 and SB has AQ. i think if the board didn't pair on the river that SB 3-bets, and i was surprised button didn't raise the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Too bad. That made two of you slowplaying the turn. I hadn't thought about it before, but pairing the board is a scare card that could slow down the river action. More reason to have raised the turn.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: Raise it. Blow any sevens or flush draws out of there or charge them.

[/ QUOTE ]
i don't want 7s to fold, and i'm really not worrying about someone having two diamonds here.

the best argument i've seen for raising the turn is that board pairing cards and aces can kill my river action.

i still don't know.

[gharp]

My initial thought was to call and hope that someone else raised the turn. But given your "plays big hands passively" read on UTG, that seems unlikely.

So I think a raise on this turn looks pretty good. Someone without an A is likely to fold for one or two bets, and someone with an A won't be able to fold at all (plus SB might reraise).

[milesdyson]

yeah now i think i should have raised the turn. i was basically praying that it would get raised behind me, but i should have focused on making my money off SB. anyone with the ace will coldcall two but not necessarily raise, and it gives SB a chance to reraise.

i also wanted to give button and utg to make loose calls here - like random overcard hands, sevens, weak pairs, etc.