new strategy?

[Mariogs379]

9 person sng on jetset (2.50 buyin) i know pathetic right?
blinds 10/20
starting stacks of t1500
most stacks are havent changed much
im in sb with AQs
all but UTG+3 limp and the action's on me
pot = sb + bb + 6 * 20 = 150
i push
thoughts?

[applejuicekid]

I don't hate it.

[rybones]

it's not new! Beyond that, you don't want to get called here by anything, Even 7,2o!!! At the 2.50 level, you will get not one, but two or three callers. My guess is you did it and won so now it is a "new strategy." Do it a few more time -- like say 100 -- so your results have some (and I mean that loosely) statistical merit. Then see if it is a winner. My guess is it will not be.

just my thoughts,

Ryan

[MegaBet]

New strategy, lol. Hey, come try out that strategy on MY tables! Please? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Exitonly]

i'm pretty positive this would be a +cEV push.. dunno how that translates to EV in SnG's though.

[applejuicekid]

[ QUOTE ]
you don't want to get called here by anything, Even 7,2o!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't? I'd love to get called by 72 here.

Donkeys are limping w/AA-QQ at these levels, and their also calling with JJ-22. The amount of chips you win uncontested don't outweigh the amount of chips you stand to lose if called.....

at least I don't think so.

[zipppy]

Hi Mario-

You have the right idea, but you may want to implement this strategy when the blinds are higher. I think it was castanza who pointed out that you stand to lose a lot more chips than you stand to win uncontested, which is right on.

early on, seeing flops cheap with hands like AQ is where it's at...just get used to recognizing when you should value bet vs. when you should let your hand go.

I know the cheap tourneys always feel like a crapshoot because people start with such varying hands, but the betting patterns at these levels are very clear a lot of times. Don't be afraid to play postflop! Valuebetting your solid hands will increase your ROI at these levels much much more than picking up blinds here and there.

good luck...
>>>ZIPPPY

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you don't want to get called here by anything, Even 7,2o!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't? I'd love to get called by 72 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would want to get called as a 70% favorite too.

[lorinda]

In a $2 game, I would be hoping to be able to find better spots than this.

Lori

[zipppy]

Also, AQs is a solid multiway hand...you don't always want/need to be heads up with good hands.

[bawcerelli]

I limp AQs this early, I fold AQo, unless in the SB then I'll complete.

[checkers777]

Against the donkbox calling station at these limits i dont think you want to gamble preflop in the early stages. You can use your postflop skills to take their chips by playing ABC poker.

[Hendricks433]

Risk/reward ratio? 1500 to win 150? Hmm sounds like a sweet deal to me. Why not try and get a good flop and actually win some chips. 150 does nothing for me here with 1500 stacks really. Party sng is different too though cause 150 seems to be a much bigger difference.

[Mariogs379]

thank you all for your responses but i do still think its a +cEV push because no one and i mean almost literally no one will limp with AA/KK/QQ/AK so getting called by any other hand is either a coinflip or im way out in front when i do get called. otherwise im simply picking up t150, i understand itd be a better play later on with higher blinds but why not push it here? anyone care to do a structured hand analysis like harrington does in vol 2 of HOH to see whether its +EV overall...
itd be really helpful, otherwise i think its a great play for the lower limits

[Insty]

[ QUOTE ]
no one and i mean almost literally no one will limp with AA/KK/QQ/AK

[/ QUOTE ]

You must be new here.

[tigerite]

Who gives a stuff about +cEV

It's icmEV you want

FWIW I just complete here. Pushing for 10% of your stack is not good. It wants to be 20% at least.

[Damian UK]

No one limps with AA?? LOL - I see it all the time at the $1 to $5 tables - they think they are being clever and want to get 'value' for their rockets, only to be caught calling an all in on the flop to a couple of draws/two pair hands that others have limped in with and which they can't let go when it goes pot sized bet, raise, reraise all in etc. (their Aces look soooooooooooo pretty! /images/graemlins/confused.gif)

I know this has been discussed before but I always push AA on levels 1 and 2 because someone sees KJ and falls in love with it /images/graemlins/grin.gif - tho many others will disagree with me on pushing AA so early /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Just my thoughts

Damian

[SonnyJay]

[ QUOTE ]
thank you all for your responses but i do still think its a +cEV push

[/ QUOTE ]

This is well and good, but just because it's +cEV doesn't mean it's the right play. You're looking for the most +EV play. There are times that situations arise where there are 2 +EV plays, but you're looking for the better of the two.

I did a very rough ICM calculation, which I believe illustrates this point.
1. You fold, one player picks up the pot with a flop bet.
You: 1490 (ICM: .1105)
1 Other: 1630
1 Other: 1500
6 Others: 1480

2. You push all in
2a. Everyone folds (40% of the time)
You: 1640 (ICM: .1203)
1 Other: 1500
7 Others: 1480

2b. 1 person calls (60% of the time)
You win
You: 3120 (ICM: .2092)
1 Other: 1500
6 Others: 1480
You lose
ICM: 0

For all-in move to be equal to folding:
.1105= .4(.1203) + .6[x(.2012) + (1-x)(0)]
.1105= .04812 + .12072x
.06238= .12072x
x= .517

This is clearly very flawed (ie. only compares it to you folding, assumes you get folded to 40% of the time, ignores situations where you get 2 callers, etc.). But, for the sake of this example, you need to be almost 52% to win when you get called for it to be a +$EV play. If you're getting called 60% of the time, it's fair to assume you'll be ahead this percentage of the time.

Here's the thing: that doesn't mean there isn't a better path. +EV isn't +EV, but rather you're looking for the best decision. This shows that your push is superior to folding, but what about calling and taking a flop? You get away for very little when you miss and can more confidently bet when you get a favorable flop. If people would be willing to call your all in and play as poorly as you suggest, why wouldn't they be willing to come along with a worse A or Q or even worse when you hit?

In limit cash games you sometimes bet when you know you're giving correct odds for your opponent to call. While this isn't a good situation, it's better than the alternative, which is letting your opponent draw for free. The flip side of this is what you have here. You can push now and take down some chips, but it may not be better than the alternative. I'd be willing to bet you that you could get a much better return on calling here and getting chips in as a bigger favorite later on.

-SonnyJay