AA against a Blind...I mean...BLIND

[BoxTree]

I'm not quite sure where to put this, but I figure if Sklansky's hypothetical face-up KK/JJ could go here, then this should be the right place for this post.

This hand is a hypothetical adaptation of a real Commerce 20/40 hand.

Villain calls blind in UTG+1. Folds to Hero.

Hero raises on the Button with black aces. Blinds fold. UTG+1 calls (still blind).

Flop: K/images/graemlins/heart.gif8/images/graemlins/club.gif9/images/graemlins/spade.gif

Villain checks, Hero bets, Villain calls.

Turn: 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Villain checks, Hero bets, Villain calls.

River: 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Villain checks, Hero bets, Villain check-raises, Hero 3-bets, Villain 4-bets...

How far do you go? And yes, you are 100% certain that UTG+1 has no idea what his cards are.

[astroglide]

aces are only 54:46 against a random hand here

[yoshi_yoshi]

Equity vs random: 53.889%

So according to the Kelly criterion (there are calculators on google) you should risk 7.78% of your bankroll if you have the guts to do so.

Edit: kelly criterion is used for example in Blackjack to find out what the optimal % of your bankroll to bet on any single hand given that you know what percent advantage you have.

So in this hand you have a 3.9% advantage, obviously the most +EV decision is to bet your whole bankroll in. But if the bankroll is all you have, you want to avoid going bust, so the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal % of your bankroll you want to put in that balances getting +EV and not wanting to go bust.

[BoxTree]

[ QUOTE ]
Equity vs random: 53.889%

So according to the Kelly criterion (there are calculators on google) you should risk 7.78% of your bankroll if you have the guts to do so.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea what the Kelly criterion is, but I'll check it out.

[BoxTree]

[ QUOTE ]
aces are only 54:46 against a random hand here

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup, so given such a small edge (but an edge, nonetheless), how far do you go? I'm going to look into this Kelly criterion thing.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not quite sure where to put this, but I figure if Sklansky's hypothetical face-up KK/JJ could go here, then this should be the right place for this post.

[/ QUOTE ]

His post was in the wrong forum, but then, it's his site.

[ QUOTE ]
How far do you go? And yes, you are 100% certain that UTG+1 has no idea what his cards are.

[/ QUOTE ]

Figuring out your win percentage exactly is tough, but I just dealt it out a few times and figure to be only a surprisingly small favorite, maybe a 5% edge. Anyone with pokerstove can give you the exact figure.

At that point, how much do you want to risk on an edge like this? risk of ruin calculations can be done, but a quick suggestion would be to risk no more than about 1% of your total bankroll. Certainly you would want to ensure that you were left with enough cash to rebuy, since playing with this guy is very +EV.

good luck.
Eric

[Mempho]

[ QUOTE ]


His post was in the wrong forum, but then, it's his site.


[/ QUOTE ]

Technically speaking, yes. I think, however, he wanted intelligent discussion on the topic and this forum is arguably the best forum for such a discussion.

[BoxTree]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


His post was in the wrong forum, but then, it's his site.


[/ QUOTE ]

Technically speaking, yes. I think, however, he wanted intelligent discussion on the topic and this forum is arguably the best forum for such a discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

But the discussion would have been equally intelligent and very different if posted in the MHNLPL forum.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

its just about a coinflip here. how many bets i go depends a lot on how much chips villian has left, how much i has left, and how i've been running/feeling at this point.

[Jeff W]

All-in.

[TimM]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand is a hypothetical adaptation of a real Commerce 20/40 hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm curious how the real hand went.

[BoxTree]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This hand is a hypothetical adaptation of a real Commerce 20/40 hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm curious how the real hand went.

[/ QUOTE ]

Much less interesting. The blind guy called every bet on every street and was exactly all-in with his river call. He turned over Q6o for rivered bottom pair.

[Klepton]

[ QUOTE ]
Much less interesting. The blind guy called every bet on every street and was exactly all-in with his river call. He turned over Q6o for rivered bottom pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

standard commerce hand.

[Eric P]

Personally, i would check the river, People that i know that play blind would ALWAYS look at their hand after I bet, they would muck all the losing hands in this case and raise with all the winning ones, thus making a bet on the end unprofitable.

Considering you have bet and he check-raises still blind, I see no reason to re-raise him, unless you knew he was going to re-raise you back if you did. The variance is big and the cons of losing a lot of money on a hand like this are more than the pros of getting your money in with a 6% edge in this situation. Unless you are very good at not going on tilt, then i guess you should raise again.

My point is that he can look at anytime, and then your most recent bet loses allmost all equity, if he sees 23 he will fold, if he raises you HAVE to call, and you will have lost 80 more than you needed to. All the money blind helps, but you are getting money in as a 6% favorite, when he looks he can either cut that off, or beat you out of another 80 as a 90% favorite. It's because of this point that i think you should just call his check-raise