downswing frequency? Fill in the blanks! (LC)

[Pog0]

Winning (1)(2)(3)BB/100, I can expect to have a 50BB downswing on average every _____ hands.
Same question: 100BB, 200BB.

[flair1239]

Might get better answers in the probability forum.

TO summarise, 50BB is not a downswing, it is a bad day. 100BB is pretty annoying and will occur with regularity. 200BB is tough, but also not incredibly rare say every 100000-150,000 hands or so. More would not suprise me.

BTW, as a rule we don't like these posts here. Post hands or situations.

Also if you search the archives under Homer's name. HE has a few intresting studies on variance and such things. Including a nifty spreadsheet where you can enter your WR and Standard deviation and keep hitting a button and see just how bad it could get.