Conceptual Problem with AK/Turn check-raise.

[Ortho]

This hand raised something that has really been bothering me.

I've only been at this table for about 4 hands, and I have no read on villain. My flop raise could well be incorrect, but I think it's reasonable to push UTG+1 out and possibly take a free card on the turn, so please ignore it if you're willing to because my question concerns the turn.

UTG folds, UTG+1 limps, Villain raises, 3 players fold, Hero 3-bets in CO with A/images/graemlins/spade.gifK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Button folds, blinds fold. UTG+1 calls, Villain Calls.

(10.5 SB, 3 players) Flop: 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif3/images/graemlins/club.gif9/images/graemlins/spade.gif
UTG+1 checks, Villain bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, Villain calls.

(7.25 BB, 2 players) Turn: 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif3/images/graemlins/club.gif9/images/graemlins/spade.gif2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Villain checks, Hero bets, Villain raises.

There are 10.25 big bets in the pot, and it will cost me 2 BB to see a showdown in a 13.25 pot, so I'm getting about 5.6:1 to see a showdown with my AK. My AK has to be good about 15% of the time here to make this calldown. I'm not sure whether it is or whether it's not.

But what also bothers me here are the odds that the villain is getting on his check-raise, no matter what he's holding. There are 8.25 BB in the pot when I bet the turn, so when he invests 2 BB on his check-raise, I only have to fold about 19% of the time for his check-raise to be profitable. I fold to a random turn check-raise much more often than 19% of the time.

So, the turn check-raise scares me because, well, it's a turn check-raise, but I'm really only scared of a pair here. Unless he's got 99, I think villain is relatively unlikely to have hit this 3392 board given his action so far, but the check-raise is a strong move with me holding overcards and villain could easily have AA-88. Maybe he's picked up a flush draw. Maybe he's got nothing. I think I'm probably beaten, but at the same time I don't like folding in this biggish pot.

My thinking is all screwed up here, because it seems like I have no good move: If I call down, I feel like I don't have the odds and it is -EV and calling down with overcards is a leak that I've tried to plug. But the pot is pretty big and so I feel like folding is also -EV.

Could someone help me straighten out my thinking here? Is the bet bad because it gets me into this spot? Should I be check-raising turns on rag boards after I get 3-bet preflop? Responses like "fold" or "call down" are appreciated, but I'm really trying to learn how to think about situations like this.

[Harv72b]

The flop raise is completely reasonable. What I don't like is the turn bet.

There are absolutely zero draws to be found on this flop. So, when Villain leads into you on the flop, that means that either:

A) He's flopped a monster (99, maybe 33 in the hole) and wants to get as much money in the pot as possible, so he's feeling you out to see how much you like your hand, or...
B) He slowplayed AA preflop with the intention of taking you for extra bets postflop, or...
C) He's holding some other pocket pair, and wants to get you off of your (presumed) overcards, or...
D) He's F.O.S. and representing a huge hand, in the hopes he can push you off a better hand.

Since you have no read on the villain, you can't lean towards any of the four...however, with the pot now standing at 10.25 BBs, you easily have odds to call the turn c/r with a 6-outer. So you can't really fold to the turn c/r, as it would only be correct to do so if he held AA, KK, 99, 22, A9, K9, or a 3, specifically. The problem is that, once you call the turn c/r, you will now be getting 12:1 pot odds to call one more on the river, which you're probably going to do (he'll be F.O.S. at least 1 in 12 times). So in reality, calling the turn c/r pretty much commits you to calling another bet on the river. Again, though, without a read on the villain and with this being a pretty harmless looking board, you pretty much have to call down.

What I like a lot better in this scenario is taking your free card on the turn and calling a bet on the river UI, to head off a possible bluff. If you had a read on villain as being passive and/or straightforward postflop, that would change to taking the free card and folding to a river bet UI.

The only time it's worth it to bet the turn here is when you feel confident that you'll get villain to fold a better hand (TT or 88, maybe), and without a read I don't think you can expect an unknown player to make that fold on this board (and in a fairly large pot). If he has a worse hand than you, you're better off trying to induce a river bluff (odds are extremely good that he's drawing to only 3 outs if this is the case) rather than trying to bully him out of the pot. And you hate to put yourself into this kind of a situation (almost being forced to call down with ace high after a turn c/r).

[silkyslim]

take the free card on turn

[Ortho]

Thanks very much for this response. This really helped.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks very much for this response. This really helped.

[/ QUOTE ]

BTW, I mispoke in the last paragraph. It's also worth it to bet the turn if you are confident that he will call with a worse hand (EDIT--I need to go to bed) and that he would not bet with it on the river. But again, with no read on the opponent you can't be reasonably sure that he would.