Laydown that I regret

[CardSharpCook]

This is from a Live Limit Tourney. $550 event 55 players at the bike.

My read on Seat 2 is that he is a fish. He bets when he has stuff, he calls when he shouldn't, he plays way too many hands, and he's not that hard to read. His read on me should be that I am a tight aggressive player. He has seen me play few hands, and play those hands aggressively or get out quick.

AK /images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif in MP. Folded to me, I raise, SB (seat 2) and BB both call.

Flop: 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif6 /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
SB bets, BB folds, I raise.

Turn: 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
He checks, I check.

River: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
He bets, I quickly raise, he just as quickly 3bets. I fold.

I'd never make this fold online, but given the read I had on him and his quick bet, I folded. I also thought, "he's got to know exactly what I have, he can't be thinking that I'd fold an ace here." But I did, and I regret it. Should I?

[daryn]

the tourney forum is

<--- that-a-way

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
the tourney forum is

<--- that-a-way

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but few if any posters in MTT know dick about Limit. I'm the resident MTT Limit pro, which should tell you a little something about our dire needs.

[elindauer]

In a cash game, very few players bluff 3-bet, and bad player virtually never. You made an excellent fold of a good but probably 2nd best hand.

Now, this is a tournament, so there may be some different dynamics at play. Was he short-stacked and giving up? Even in a limit game, short-stacks sometimes just "rack off", tossing he last of their money in the pot in a spot they know is -EV, because they are annoyed they are losing and just don't care.

This is much more common on the early streets than the river though. I think your fold was the right move.

good luck.
eric

[stillbr]

really bad fold.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
really clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]yeah.

[geormiet]

No one will ever expect anyone to be capable of folding an A, let alone AK. The player you described is not capable of 3 betting less than trips, and your fold is completely fine.

[James282]

River raise sucks IMO.
-James

[surfdoc]

You tell us he is a fish, but we really need to know how big? Is he utterly retarded enough to think A4 is the nuts here not realizing that his hand is no good? I doubt he is that bad which means your fold is good.

[Chief911]

CSC,

I think you are underestimating alot of the MTT people. There are atleast 5-10 that are excellent limit MTT players.

Note: I'm a MTT donk like the rest of the MTT people, but here's my opinion.

Just because he's a fish, doesnt mean he puts you on ANYTHING. He very well may not be aware of anything aside from what is in his hand.

That said, it looks like he wanted to check raise your ass on the turn, and finished it off on the river.

I'd probably call for one more bet though. He could easily have Ax and YHIG.

Nick

[esspo]

Must...not...raise...fold.

Here is my order of preference.

1. Call
2. Fold (very distant second imo)
3. Raise/Call
4. Raise/Fold

If you specify the stack sizes relative to the blinds, you may get some more responses.

[andyfox]

I imagine I'm sometimes guilty of this type of thing nyself, but when somebody just posts "river raise sucks" without giving any analysis or reasoning, I don't find it terribly helpful. [Except in the sense that if it's a player I respect. And I do respect James 282. A lot.]

Could you elaborate on why you think it sucks? Thanks.

[CardSharpCook]

I agree with a lot of what was said in this thread. The river is a should call, not a should raise. For the 1st hour after that hand I was chastising myself for that raise. However, at that point I was completely confident that the fold was the correct play (esp. given tourney considerations). Then about 5 hours later in the tourney at another table, I saw this same player running all the usual donk moves again and again, but then he shows off an extended bluff with 44 on a AKT8ddd board. Another player saw that and said, "Man, I love playing with that guy, absolutely fearless." At that point I was no longer happy with my read or my fold.

Anyway, thanks for the criticism.

Chief: while there are many players in MTT who are aware of what Limit is, and even play from time to time, the thread would have gone un-responded to, or responded to with a NL mentality.

[DcifrThs]

have you read Tournament Poker For advanced players?

if so you should know that to raise this river is to [censored] all over your self.

really really really bad river raise. who cares about the fold.

Barron

[ QUOTE ]
I imagine I'm sometimes guilty of this type of thing nyself, but when somebody just posts "river raise sucks" without giving any analysis or reasoning, I don't find it terribly helpful. [Except in the sense that if it's a player I respect. And I do respect James 282. A lot.]

Could you elaborate on why you think it sucks? Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll jump in here. It's because you've telegraphed your holding in a way ahead/way behind situation. So if he doesn't have trips, he knows you either have it or an ace. So on the slim chance he has a weaker ace, you'll get a call, but the vast majority of the time you'll either fold him or get reraised.

The villian in this hand has bet directly into the overcard, representing significant strength. This comes right after a check on the turn that screams of a whiffed checkraise.

So what does our hero gain by raising here? Let's say he's ahead of a weaker holding (perhaps a weaker ace or a PP he just won't give up on) that will call the raise about 15% of the time. Let's say he is behind trips 40% of the time. Let's say he is behind better than trips 20% of the time. And let's say his opponent reraises with a worse hand 10% of the time and hero folds 5% of the time when this occurs. Finally, let's say his opponent folds to a raise 15% of the time. Since I don't know the bet amounts let's just make them 10 for ease of calculation.


So all in all, about 20% of the time hero can expect to make a small profit from his raise. 5% of the time the raise will cost him the whole pot (when he incorrectly folds), and 60% of the time it will cost him the raise and any call of the reraise. 15% of the time the raise means nothing to hero, as his opponent folds.

Now it is easy to see now why the river raise is a poor play. Hero is generally only going to get called by hands that beat him, and those hands will likely raise him. On those occassions hero is ahead, he will be very far ahead and villian will probably fold. There are very few holdings villian could hold given this action that hero beats *and* that will call the raise, and of course that's precisely why we make raises on the river like this--to get inferior hands to call. But when most of the call-worthy hands are reraising hands, and there are very few hands villian will simply call with and lose, the overall EV of the raise is quite negative.

[CardSharpCook]

That's all well and good, but villian has shown himself incapable of folding any pair. Betting into someone who checked behind on the turn is so common it is laughable. I raised here fully confident that he calls with he 6, 4, 3, or weaker ace. I was also equally confident that he only reraises with trips or better. In a cash game vs. this opponent, this is a no-brainer raise IMO. On the other hand, given the tourney situation that makes it ok to fold to a reraise, it was definately wrong for me to raise. I think the river raise is a minor mistake given my read and that it is a tourney.

Whatever, I posted this because I botched the hand and wanted it confirmed that I did in fact botch it. So thank you all.

[JacksonTens]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm the resident MTT Limit pro, which should tell you a little something about our dire needs.

[/ QUOTE ]

MTT limit pro? Is that possible? There are hardly any Limit MTT's where I play.

JT /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm the resident MTT Limit pro, which should tell you a little something about our dire needs.

[/ QUOTE ]

MTT limit pro? Is that possible? There are hardly any Limit MTT's where I play.

JT /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

that's why I'm broke. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Does anyone bet this turn given CSC's read on villian?

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone bet this turn given CSC's read on villian?

[/ QUOTE ]

...why would I bet the turn against a villian that doesn't fold a pair? Especially when checking will have him betting into me on my 15 out river. Especially especially when villian could raise the turn.

Why are you thinking bet the turn?

[ QUOTE ]

Why are you thinking bet the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

For value. I don't necessarily think villian has a pair/trips here most of the time, and even if he does we have lots of outs.

[Shillx]

In a tourney you can't make these types of bets as often as you would in a side game since the chips you lose when you spew are more valuable then the chips you gain when he makes poor calls. We are raising the flop to get a free card here so we need to take it when he offers it to us.

CSC - As others have stated I don't like a river raise here. I would just call in a sidegame as well. If he was betting the flop with a draw it didn't get there and we get no value from the raise. If he was betting the flop with an 8, he outdrew us on the turn and we will get 3-bet.

Brad

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
My read on Seat 2 is that he is a fish. He bets when he has stuff, he calls when he shouldn't, he plays way too many hands, and he's not that hard to read. His read on me should be that I am a tight aggressive player. He has seen me play few hands, and play those hands aggressively or get out quick...........................

I also thought, "he's got to know exactly what I have, he can't be thinking that I'd fold an ace here."

[/ QUOTE ]

Your biggest mistake was in your head.

You figured the fish could have a read on you, put you on a hand and would think about what you would do. Even though he played like he didn't think at all.

People who play bad usually don't think about much, other than how good their hand looks. It looked real good to him on the river.

[arod15]

wow...

[adanthar]

With my style, I wind up making a lot of river value calls and very few river raises, even with near nut hands, when I think there is a 'bluff or monster' situation involved. Sometimes, I have to double and triple check myself and the hand history to make sure I'm not developing a weak/tight streak on the river.

This would not be one of those times, because I wouldn't have thought twice about just calling (although I might have raised/paid off if the turn was a 2 or even a 4.)

I think the fold on the end is fine given your read, but hey, we all sometimes screw up reads.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with a lot of what was said in this thread. The river is a should call, not a should raise. For the 1st hour after that hand I was chastising myself for that raise. However, at that point I was completely confident that the fold was the correct play (esp. given tourney considerations). Then about 5 hours later in the tourney at another table, I saw this same player running all the usual donk moves again and again, but then he shows off an extended bluff with 44 on a AKT8ddd board. Another player saw that and said, "Man, I love playing with that guy, absolutely fearless." At that point I was no longer happy with my read or my fold.

Anyway, thanks for the criticism.

Chief: while there are many players in MTT who are aware of what Limit is, and even play from time to time, the thread would have gone un-responded to, or responded to with a NL mentality.

[/ QUOTE ]

push preflop....oh wait.

uhhhh...just call the river.