Calling junk odds with preflop odds

[Jellyroll]

Hey Guys,

I tried doing a search for this but I'm not coming up with anything useful. Maybe I'm just searching the wrong keywords =/

Anyway, I noticed recently that I'm getting urges to play junk out of the BB when it's one bet to me in the big blind when getting a good price. Do any of you have some rough estimates of what potodds are generally required for:

- calling any two suited cards (92s)
- calling any two unsuited cards with some straight possibilities (75o)
- calling any two generally hopeless cards (92o)

I realize "rules" are generally not good, but would appreciate some advice to work off of, and work with as needed.

Sometimes when I'm getting 1:7, just about everything looks pretty tempting to me. For example, I ran a poker sim using pokerstove:

2 players limping at 20% vpip
1 player (raiser) at 9% vpip
Hero with 75o, or 92o

This showed that Hero has equity of 20% (1:4). So, am I correct in assuming that 75o is a +EV call here while getting 1:7? 92o would would be getting 1:6, roughly too.

A did a similar sim:

1 player limping at 20% vpip
1 player (raiser) at 9% vpip
Hero with 92s

This showed that 92s had an equity of roughly 1:4 again, while getting 1:5 pot odds. Does anyone routinely call 92s from the BB when (for example) MP limps and button raises? It doesn't sound like a good idea, but I'm trying to figure at what point I should be calling with any two cards.

I realize that rake and position also have to be considered. But, maybe with one more caller each of these situations would warrant a call? What are your thoughts?

Thanks,

Jellyroll

[pineapple888]

The obvious problem here is that your examples depend on the hands being taken to showdown.

But how can you even play these hands if you don't hit a monster flop? You will be dominated far too often. And if you hit a monster flop, the deck is likely crippled, so who will pay you off?

Usually, you will either be forced out or lose a huge pot. Occasionally, you will win a small pot, and very occasionally, you will win a huge pot.

Very, very -EV. Don't bet your junk, even with (deceptively) appealing pot odds, unless there will be no further betting.

[Xhad]

link (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=genpok&Number=3311048&Foru m=,f1,&Words=&Searchpage=1&Limit=25&Main=3305160&S earch=true&where=bodysub&Name=39517&daterange=1&ne werval=1&newertype=y&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev =#Post3311048)

[elmitchbo]

i disagre. you will rarley win small pots in these situations. if you win at all, which will be rare, it will be a monster. the whole idea is to hit a monster flop. if you flop a full house with 82o or a straight with 75o how often are you going to be dominated?

if you're getting 7:1 in the blinds i say call with basically anything. usually you'll miss and fold, occasionally you flop a monster and get crafty with your play and take down a huge pot and bust 4 guys out all at the sametime.

don't forget the added benefits of table image that come from defending your blind. the more times people see you call the less likely they are to try and steal with rubbish. for the most part people won;t realize that you were calling because of the great odds, they'll just remember the call.

[Guernica4000]

The problem with calling with junk is not the miss fold or hit a monster bet. It is when you have 92 and the flop is 947 or your 57 sees a 68A flop.
In the long run you will lose more with the miss/fold and semi hit /call than you will win when hitting a 577 flop with your 57 in hand.


The problem is selective memory, if you play 57 for a year you will tell the story about how you cracked AA three times and won monster pots, but you will forget all the money you lost when folding and making the second best hand.

IMO

[Fillamoore]

Another thing to consider...getting 7:1 in the BB is completely different than getting 7:1 in the SB. This is because of implied odds. Take a 10/20 game for example, getting 7:1 in the sb would be with 2 limpers and its back to you to complete for $5. With the limits however, you can easily get back much more than say if you called a raise for $10 from the big blind after a raise and two callers. Notice that both are identical preflop in terms of pot odds, but the former has twice the implied odds.

From the BB, i tend to fold most junk even if the odds look favorable because to be put in that situation, there would have obviously had to been a raise, which makes you're decision much less clear. If theres an overpair, plus two other descent hands to your 57o...then i would suspect you're not anywhere near a 5 to 1 dog but probably closer to 10 to 1. In the small blind is a different story though. To be put in this situation, there is no raise and your decision can be made really off the price and face value. Basically, the point is this:

If you knew you were a 5:1 dog against 3 other random hands, its most likely -EV to call with odds of 7:1 in the BB (as its no longer random hands) whereas from the SB its almost guarenteed to be +EV with 7:1 (not only because there is no raise as to suggest less than adequate holding, but because of the doubled implied odds)

Hope this helps. Good luck.

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
don't forget the added benefits of table image that come from defending your blind. the more times people see you call the less likely they are to try and steal with rubbish. for the most part people won;t realize that you were calling because of the great odds, they'll just remember the call.

[/ QUOTE ]

If someone raises and two people cold-call, blind defense is not a concern at your table.

[RiverDood]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with calling with junk is not the miss fold or hit a monster bet. It is when you have 92 and the flop is 947 or your 57 sees a 68A flop.
In the long run you will lose more with the miss/fold and semi hit /call than you will win when hitting a 577 flop with your 57 in hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right to focus on the semi-hit hands. At a loose/passive table (microlimits) you can often play out your draws with lots of other people in the pot. In those situations, calling with 75s and carrying on with an OESD may be worth it.

At a tighter or more aggressive table, it's idiocy. Your implied odds are a lot worse because you won't be drawing against five limpers for long. And your cost of staying in till the river unimproved is punitive.