How would you play this hand in this spot?

[lysis]

Hi All,

I would appreciate you sharing your thoughts on how to play this hand. Here are all the details I can muster:

77 people started this B&M tourney, down to about 18 now. Blinds are currently 300-600, no ante. I have about 1900, and am 4 seats from the BB (BB is seat 2, I am seat 6). There is about 90,000 in play, meaning average stack is 5,000 or so.

Here is the payout schedule (top 4 only get paid):

$4500
$2250
$1350
$900

But I should add that deals are made frequently, usually with anywhere from 8 players on down, based strictly on chip equity, with some of the larger stacks paying off the smaller ones small amounts of money to get the deal done.

I think that's the tourney details, on to the hand:

UTG limps. This probably means he has a suited ace, maybe a suited connected King, at best a pocket pair lower than 8's, with a tiny chance of AQo. He will also be calling any raises, despite the fact that he has about 2500 in front of him. There is no way he has a premium hand, and there is no way he can resist the temptation of calling off his chips all in.

It's then folded to me, and I look down and see A /forums/images/icons/club.gif J /forums/images/icons/club.gif . While I consider how best to shove my chips all in, I begin to get a vibe that the chip leader, who is two seats to my left, really likes his hand. I don't have an exact physical tell per se, but I know he likes his hand, and he's gonna be raising regardless of what I do.

How do you play this?

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Without your read on the chip leader, raise all-in. But since you got that vibe, fold. The all-in was correct, but only marginally so. Your tell pushes you into the other decision (calling was never an option).

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[lysis]

Thanks for the reply Greg.

I thought about it for a little while at the table. I considered the fact that my 1900, if it was gonna go all in, would be getting the following odds/return:

1900 from Chip Leader
1900 from UTG
600 from BB
300 from SB

6600 would have been good enough to get me a few more rounds, and would probably allow me to get to the final table with a good shot at cashing (due to deals).

I felt that if I mucked, then I would be leaving myself with 1900, looking at only a few more hands before really having to shove in with any piece of cheese.

I just couldn't come up with some sort of equity analysis while I was sitting there, whether it was worth it to chase down the Chip Leader's hand for that sort of return.

lysis

[boots]

I think you have to make a stand... given how aggressive the play was in that tournament, the chip leader could be bullying the table with a large number of hands, or he could be bluffing... don't know how good your tell is.

I played this tourney - i managed to cash out for a very nice chunk when we made the deal at the final table - which is another post all together - would you ever not make that deal (where everyone gets their exact equity? i guess i'll post it separately...