Losing with 33 - some hands for inspection. [Archive]

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TripleH68

10-17-2005, 01:18 PM

After 45,000 hands in my PT database I am winning with AA-88, losing with 77-22.
Looking specifically at 33 I have been dealt the hand 154 times:

VP$IP = 50%
CCPF once
W$WSF = 15%
W$SD = 50%
WTSD = 15%
bb/hand = (0.20)

Not the largest sample size, but considering my stats are similar for 22, 44, 55 and 66 here are a few hand samples I picked out.
Some are very routine, some not. I hope you do not consider this post a waste of time/space. I am just starting to feel like maybe I should really tighten up with these low pockets unless I can figure out how to play them better. Thanks in advance for any/all discussion.

HAND 1
Perhaps a stale debate on whether you should open limp in EP?
PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
2 folds, Hero calls, 2 folds, MP3 raises, 4 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (5.33 SB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 3.16 BB

HAND 2
Preflop call seems okay. Call this flop?
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Hero posts a blind of $2.
UTG raises, UTG+1 3-bets, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, Hero (poster) calls, MP3 calls, 4 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero calls, MP3 folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero folds, UTG+1 calls.

River: (13.75 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 15.75 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG+1 has Qs As (one pair, aces).
UTG+2 has Kc Kh (three of a kind, kings).
Outcome: UTG+2 wins 15.75 BB. 

HAND 3
CO preflop raise is 9%. Should hero consider raising this somewhere?
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
4 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, CO raises, 2 folds, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, CO bets, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

River: (6.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

Final Pot: 6.25 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has 3c 3h (two pair, nines and sevens).
CO has Js Ac (two pair, nines and sevens).
Outcome: CO wins 6.25 BB. 

HAND 4
This seems like another common situation. Does not feel good when it happens...
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (13 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero folds.

Turn: (9 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, SB folds, UTG+1 folds.

River: (12 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
MP1 bets, MP2 folds, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB

Results in white below: 
MP1 has 6h Qs (two pair, queens and sixes).
MP3 has 9h Jc (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: MP1 wins 14 BB. 

HAND 5
Did I mess up every street here?
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif.
2 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 folds.

River: (5.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 5.50 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has 6d Jc (two pair, sixes and fours).
Hero has 3h 3c (two pair, fours and threes).
Outcome: BB wins 5.50 BB. 

HAND 6
Pot is very small.
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Hero calls, 2 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 3 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (4.33 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, MP3 folds, BB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 3.66 BB

HAND 7
Bet the turn and/or river here? Villain is 10/9/1.0.
Is the flop bet even worth it?
PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, 3 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+2 folds.

Turn: (3 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (5 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 5 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has 5d Tc (one pair, fives).
Hero has 3c 3d (one pair, threes).
Outcome: BB wins 5 BB.

Fantam

10-17-2005, 01:35 PM

Just an observation, but from your sample of hands, you seem to be pushing your small pairs very hard IMHO.

I am not sure that you were receiving the implied odds necessary to play in all of those hands.

Also I think that I noticed that you called down a couple of times, when your small pair was an underpair to the whole board.

So I would ease up a little bit when playing them, and look for more multiway pots to limp into, unless you are going to open raise off the button.

10-17-2005, 01:37 PM

Hi TripleH-

The fact that you're losing with 77-22 is very disconcerting. It leads me to believe you're calling too much in early or middle position with too few people in the pot. The hands you posted lend validity to my suspicion - imho, if the table is < 30 % VPIP you shouldn't be playing < 66 in early or mid without at least 2 callers.

Here's some feedback about individual hands:

hand 1: Fold this preflop.

hand 2: Don't post in MP2. Don't CC for two bets, it's not worth it at this point, especially when you don't know whether it will be capped. Your implied odds don't justify it.

hand 3: Raise the turn or fold to his turn bet. If you take this line, you can bet through the river and he'll put you on a 7 or 9 often enough to fold this and make your bluff worthwhile once your pair is counterfeited.

hand 4: Standard.

hand 5: Debateable. If your table image is OK a flop bet is alright here but you need to stop firing after that. You won't get both players to fold 25 % of the time here on the turn, especially with the flush draw out there.

hand 6: 2 people left to act after you? Check it through and fold to flop aggression, pot is small. I would bet this if you were last to act, however, and call a check/raise hoping to peel off a diamond.

hand 7: If you're going to try bluffs like this, you need to fire on all 3 streets. After missing the flop bluff, you either give it up or follow through with the river, it's that ace villian should be scared of and give you credit for.

Good luck with your small pocket pairs.

PJM1206

10-17-2005, 01:47 PM

I only play 44-22 in late postion with 3 callers in front of me other wise I trash them they usually require a set to win and given that it's a 11 to 1 to flop and 22 to 1 after that you need to have several callers in front to play.

PJM1206

10-17-2005, 01:48 PM

PPS I just recently started to turn a profit on my low pairs

10-17-2005, 01:50 PM

I have good profit margins with my low pp. I want to say somewhere between .2 and .5, on average, although last I checked I think I was losing money with one of them - losing with 66 and making a killing on 55 or something like that. Too bad I don't have a database at work. Too bad work does not equal poker /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Fantam

10-17-2005, 02:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I only play 44-22 in late postion with 3 callers in front of me other wise I trash them they usually require a set to win and given that it's a 11 to 1 to flop and 22 to 1 after that you need to have several callers in front to play.

[/ QUOTE ]

The odds of flopping a set with a pocket pair are about 7.5:1.

10-17-2005, 02:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The odds of flopping a set with a pocket pair are about 7.5:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need better odds for lower pp than higher ones, however, because you are significantly more likely to be facing an overset with 22 than with TT. While your implied odds can make up discrepancies preflop and make it profitable to play 33 with say, 4 other players, hitting your set only to have another player hit another set does tend to reduce this.

RatFink

10-17-2005, 02:21 PM

I find that you need nice loose passive games to play it up front. One dissenter at the table and the low PP go down in value in early position.

I wish I could perfect my table selection skills so I could play it 50% of the times I was dealt it.

I think you're trying to get too much out of it. If you reduce the VP$IP on it by being more situation selective, I believe you'll see low PP start turning a profit for you.

10-17-2005, 03:06 PM

grunch....

hand 1: depends on the tables looseness and postflop aggression i would think. i would guess.... that you should probly fold here on most 2/4 tables

hand 2: fold the flop, throwing money away. with 5 players:
a) there is no guarantee your seeing the turn for 1 bet
b) you will be up against a stack of redraws even if you manage to spike a trey on the turn

hand 3: does villain always continuation bet? i would probly check/raise the flop and bet out the turn with no aggression showed back at me. i doubt he is folding an ace on the river not 1 in 6 times anyway, so i probly check/fold. in game i might try to stab the pot one last time.

hand 4: i actually think you almost have the pot odds to call that flop, but yeah it doesnt feel good at all doing it, particularly lacking the 3c which means you have only 1 real out that will give you the confidence needed to take the implied odds. most likely peel one for the flop and lay down the turn ui.

hand 5: Did I mess up every street here? yes.
preflop you arent getting the runners to set or forget. fold. or possibly raise if you think you can get it to ~1.4 players.
flop check, turn check, river bet. im pretty sure i dont have to explain why, this whole hand cost you a lot, its horrible

hand 6: 4 players = check/fold. what do you hope to achieve on this flop? you are behind and with people that arent folding draws.

hand 7: i dont like preflop, see hand 5 for the reasoning.
check the flop and the hand plays too differently to continue to comment, i really have absolutely no idea why you bet here.

a few overall comments, 33 is a hand that basically has twin peaks in terms of players.
1-2 (based on postflop weakness) you are playing with the intention of remaining in front on the flop and getting them to fold, or against some opponents just calling down because you know the vast majority of the time you are ahead preflop and make money in the longrun against their random aggression.

5-6(based on postflop aggression)+ players its an entirely different story, now you want to limp in and see a flop for cheap, then play on only that 12% of the time you hit a 3 on the flop.

3-4 player is where it gets murky, and 33 suddenly becomes lost.
you dont have the implied odds to call, and yet you arent going to be ahead with a likely 6-8 overcards against you.

so.... preflop, at least imo, you need to do everything in your power to get in to one of the peaks. this means raising on weak tables, folding on tables with loose blinds and 1-2 limpers in LP. getting stuck in the murky waters of 4 to a flop is somewhere you dont ever want to be.

10-17-2005, 03:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The odds of flopping a set with a pocket pair are about 7.5:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need better odds for lower pp than higher ones, however, because you are significantly more likely to be facing an overset with 22 than with TT. While your implied odds can make up discrepancies preflop and make it profitable to play 33 with say, 4 other players, hitting your set only to have another player hit another set does tend to reduce this.

[/ QUOTE ]

oh and be as scared of oversets as you would be of royal flushes on a board of 33344 when your holding A3.

remember, the size of a situational mistake = individual +or- ev multiplied by the frequency with which that situation occurs.

the frequency of oversets is absolutely minimal, so forget it.

blackaces13

10-17-2005, 03:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The odds of flopping a set with a pocket pair are about 7.5:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need better odds for lower pp than higher ones, however, because you are significantly more likely to be facing an overset with 22 than with TT. While your implied odds can make up discrepancies preflop and make it profitable to play 33 with say, 4 other players, hitting your set only to have another player hit another set does tend to reduce this.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is so rare to lose set over set that the effect of such hands is probably rather small. More a factor as to why hands like 77 are better than 33 is that you make more winning straights with the higher PPs since you can make the high-end of a 4 card sraight and when the board pairs it is more often lower than your PP rendering you less vulnerable to an overfull by a flopped 2 pair.

droolie

10-17-2005, 03:20 PM

Small pocket pairs prefer HU situations with momentum or multiway pots as a limper. Try to stay away from 3 and 4 way pots as much as possible with these hands. Consider folding or raising them from MP on depending on the table.

Hand 1: Fine. If you think the raiser is weak-tight you can try a donk or C/R- lead turn but this is fine as a default.

Hand 2: Fold the flop

Hand 3: Fold preflop or raise if the table is very tight.

Hand 4: Standard

Hand 5: (this one deserves it's own thread) Pf can be played anyway you feel like from fold to call to raise. I like raising to isolate and stealing on the flop if the table is tight.

The flop bet is meh but alright if the table is tight. It's kinda coordinated to take it down very often. I probably take the free turn and hope I get lucky cathing a set or OESDdraw.

The turn is standard.

River is too. He's not folding anything that you beat now.

Hand 6: Check fold the flop. Any large diamond raises your bet and then what do you do?

Hand 7: I like it.

Disconnected

10-17-2005, 03:23 PM

Hand 1: I don't open with PP's so much as a default -- I like to be somewhat confident that it won't get raised behind me, and that I'll get several people playing. So, I would fold this hand pre-flop.

Hand 2: Even posting (from MP2 /images/graemlins/blush.gif), I wouldn't call a 3-bet. I want to either get to the flop cheap or open-raise in LP myself with a low PP. I also wouldn't call the flop bet. Here's a guy betting into a pf raiser and 3-bettor. I'd be afraid too of a check-raise coming behind me.

Hand 3: Still a little early for me to enter the pot preflop. There's a pretty good chance this low flop missed the raiser. I might donk the turn when the board pairs, but the calldown isn't that bad.

Hand 4: I might peel the flop closing the action and re-evaluate on the turn here. Your implied odds are pretty good, with good relative position if you hit. Also, PM me MP3's name, so I can add to my buddy list. MP1 as a runner-up What a table /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

Hand 5: Seems OK. Where do you think you messed up?

Hand 6: I wouldn't enter the pot or lead the flop.

Hand 7: I'd check behind the turn here. What sort of hand is that particular villain going to call on that dry a flop?

Edit: OK, read some replies about hand 5, and I would change to something more along droolie's line. If I thought I had a good chance to fold out the field behind me, I'd raise it up preflop, but I don't think limping with someone in already is that bad. Big change I would make is to check through the flop and re-evaluate. My original thinking is that anyone with an ace would have likely led that flop, but a weak ace might be check/calling, or depending on the table, I might be facing a check-raise. But if the turn checked through, I would bet it for value at that point.

detruncate

10-17-2005, 03:33 PM

Hand 1: cue stale debate: you should limp when you expect favourable results most of the time. I fold when the situation doesn't look promising. That's really all there is to it.

Hand 2: you're probably getting enough in the way of implied odds to see the turn if neither of the pf aggressors c/r. Good board in that they're going to be unlikely to be pumping a draw with raising/3-betting hands. I still tend to be (overly)pessimistic about my chances of getting to the turn cheaply in situations like these unless I've seen both pf aggressors raise and check/call the flop a time or two, but it's probably ok to call.

Hand 3: I consider donking the turn. He can't love overs in a small pot with a paired board, but might be suspicious enough to call down. He probably bets the turn most of the time, but he might prefer to take a free card once you call the flop on that drawless board. If you're worried about being pushed off the best hand with a bluff raise you could always just check/call like you did and reevaluate on the river (in he's aggressive enough to raise he's almost certainly going to bet, so you're not concerned about giving a free card). I lead this river since he's unlikely to raise when ahead but might call with an ace. *Edit* apparently I'm retarded. I didn't think about the counterfeiting when I tacked on the last sentence during an edit.

Hand 4: you need to flop better in big pots. Can't believe you haven't figured that out by now. I fold where you did.

Hand 5: This is an easy fold pf unless you're happy raising or there's something about the table that you're not telling us (i.e., every player behind you is uber loose passive). I'm not happy raising unless the limper can be counted on to fold the flop too often, and even then I don't love playing 33 aggressively pre and post flop even with position. There was just a thread in HUSH about whether people raise small PPs for blind stealing purposes with loosish blinds and a surprising number said no if I remember the details correctly.

I don't think this flop is worth betting 4-way, but I'd probably be compelled to fire again on the turn if I bet the flop. I also can't see betting the river. BB has found some reason to make it this far. No reason to expect him to fold now, and there's really no way he calls with a worse hand.

Hand 6: I let this go on the flop. You're often going to get some action even when you're ahead, and your hand can't stand any.

Hand 7: I don't hate betting the flop I guess. There's a decent chance you're ahead and you might be able to push off second or third pair. When I'm called by BB, though, I'm done if his stats are accurate. Tight/passive players tend to show up on the later streets with lots of ammo. He didn't have to call pf (meaning that his pf tightness is moot), and there was a player left to act on the flop when he called so he's unlikely to have called particularly light. He hit this board and I doubt he's letting go. One of your best hopes was JT until the 8 fell. I just check the turn intending to fold UI. I suppose you could fire at the river after betting the turn since a weak/tight opponent would be unduly concerned about the A, though I still don't think he gives up often enough.

But I doubt that the stats are accurate since it's rare to find someone who finds a raise with 10% of their hands without finding more hands to play. And in any case, you don't say how often he makes it to showdown and probably don't have a good read on his play if there's room for debate since a player dependent bet would be difficult to argue over.

If I think the chances of being ahead and/or taking the pot down on the turn are sufficient to justify the turn bet then I probably fire again at the river. But I still think we're done once the flop bet is called on a ragged board. He's unlikely to fold anything that he saw fit to call the flop with and the Ace shouldn't be scary unless he's suffers from a chronic case of MUBS. If the pot were bigger and he might have peeled looking for 2-pair then a turn follow up makes more sense. Likewise if he was more likely to be on a draw.

Whew. That's a whole lotta 33. I'm also not very confident playing low PPs so I'm looking forward to reading other responses.

Aaron W.

10-17-2005, 03:40 PM

Hand 1: Limping is fine, but it's getting to the point where you must worry that you're not going to get enough limpers behind you. Three folds in front of you and you definitely shouldn't be open-limping. Postflop is fine, but with only a king on the board, you might consider playing back sometimes (read dependent, as always).

Hand 2: Good

Hand 3: I would check-raise the flop or donk the turn. Probably a flop check-raise because I want to make him fold before the river if possible.

Hand 4: Closing the action getting 17:1, this is a definite peel.

Hand 5: Good

Hand 6: I check-fold. This spot is bad enough that it's not worth making a play at the pot.

Hand 7: The flop bet is okay, but I don't follow through on the turn unless I have reason to think he's going to fold.

10-17-2005, 03:57 PM

The frequency of oversets is not minimal. It happens occasionally. Individual pocket pairs are dealt .45 of the time * 13 different pairs * 8 other people in a hand so you're facing another pocket pair about 46 percent of the time, especially if we assume in a small stakes game every pocket pair will be played.

We hit our set about 1/8 of the time. But villain's (potential) pocket pair also hits about 1/16 of the time - losing a 20+ BB pot 1/16 of the time that you flop a set is not an insignificant and tends to reduce your implied odds by a BB or two. Comparing this to a straight flush when you have quads is a straw man argument.

I'm not saying we should fear the monsters under the bed, I'm saying oversets are one of the many reasons smaller pocket pairs are more vulnerable than larger ones. Other reasons include ability to hold up unimproved vs. 1-2 opponents, high card strength when there's a 4-flush out there and losing a pot when you're ahead but a second overpair appears on the board and gives you a worthless 3-pair.

Aaron W.

10-17-2005, 04:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The frequency of oversets is not minimal. It happens occasionally. Individual pocket pairs are dealt .45 of the time * 13 different pairs * 8 other people in a hand so you're facing another pocket pair about 46 percent of the time, especially if we assume in a small stakes game every pocket pair will be played.

[/ QUOTE ]

The frequency of oversets is actually quite minimal. Your calculation is off because you can't just multiply those numbers all together and get a reasonable result. The events become less and less independent as the number of dealt cards increases. You have also double-counted the pocket pair that you hold. I don't have time to run out the entire calculation here, but I suspect that you only run into another pocket pair (given that you hold a pocket pair), somewhere on the order of 25% of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
We hit our set about 1/8 of the time. But villain's (potential) pocket pair also hits about 1/16 of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't true, either. Suppose you knew you that villain had a pocket pair and you flopped a set. What are the chances of him also flopping a set? You know 5 cards (your pocket pair, his pocket pair, and your set card). There are 47 unknown cards in the deck, two of which help villain. So the probability that one of those two cards shows up on the flop (two draws) is 1 - (45/47)(44/46) = 14%. So when you *KNOW* that villain has a pocket pair, 14% of the time he hits a set. If my 25% number above is correct, then you run into set over set 3.5% of the time which is about 27.5:1 against. This is approaching the realm of insignificant.

[ QUOTE ]
losing a 20+ BB pot 1/16 of the time that you flop a set is not an insignificant and tends to reduce your implied odds by a BB or two.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, when the pot size is 20+ BB, you probably only put in 5-6 big bets yourself. So you're not losing as much as you think you are.

[ QUOTE ]
Other reasons include ability to hold up unimproved vs. 1-2 opponents, high card strength when there's a 4-flush out there and losing a pot when you're ahead but a second overpair appears on the board and gives you a worthless 3-pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a red herring. We're discussing hands based PURELY on their set potential. Worrying about 4-flushes and double paired boards have little to do with this argument.

Eeegah

10-17-2005, 04:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
the frequency of oversets is absolutely minimal, so forget it.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's about a ten percent difference in equity between a set of deuces and a set of aces. That's not huge, but it's not trivial.

10-17-2005, 05:02 PM

Aaron, the single pocket pair I'm holding does little to drop the odds. It's a lot closer to 46 % than 25 %, that's for sure. I am holding one of 26 pocket pairs. If you rule out those two cards that I'm holding, there's still plenty of ways to make pocket pairs.

I'm not trying to say oversets are a good enough reason to avoid playing pocket pairs. I AM saying that oversets, 3-pair, flush potential and other matters should be considered when we factor in whether there's good enough odds to play a pocket pair. These factors aren't "red herrings" because I was replying to the poster who was critisizing a suggestion that 22-44 should be treated differently than 55 and 66. Oversets are one of these reasons.

Aaron W.

10-17-2005, 06:31 PM

10-17-2005, 06:43 PM

I think you're limping up front a little too much, which I think is no good with the small pocket pairs, unless the games are really loose passive. Hand #7, if I'm playing it, I would raise preflop, hope to knock out the blinds and gain some fold eqiuty on UTG+2.

10-17-2005, 08:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Small pocket pairs prefer HU situations with momentum or multiway pots as a limper. Try to stay away from 3 and 4 way pots as much as possible with these hands. Consider folding or raising them from MP on depending on the table.

[/ QUOTE ]

See, this is my impression as well. And yet whenever I ask people on these forums about how to play small pocket pairs in loose 6max tables, they always insist that they are playable most of the time. Despite the fact that you're never going to get a large multiway pot, and you're not likely to get it heads up either.

At the 50% VPIP 6max tables which I play, raising is never going to get you into a heads up situation. Multiple people can be counted on to cold call your raise. Most of the time you're gonna be in a 3way or 4 way hand after the flop.

So what good do small pocket pairs do you? Unless you're in the blinds, or in an unusual situation on the button where either everyone has limped in, or no one is in at all and you can raise to hopefully get one of the blinds to fold.

10-17-2005, 09:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Aaron, the single pocket pair I'm holding does little to drop the odds. It's a lot closer to 46 % than 25 %, that's for sure. I am holding one of 26 pocket pairs. If you rule out those two cards that I'm holding, there's still plenty of ways to make pocket pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

There aren't really 26 pocket pairs. Out of 1326 possible hands, there are 78 pocket pairs. So normally we have a 5.9% chance of getting a pocket pair. If we have a pocket pair, then there are 73 ways left for someone else to get one, out of 1225 possible hands, for a 6.0% chance.

Assuming a 10 person table, the chance that one or more other players holds a PP is:
1 - (94%)^9 = 43%
This also assumes that each player's hand is independent of the others, which isn't true but probably doesn't affect it that much. I might be wrong.

Anyway, that might seem like a lot but if only one other player has a PP, I think there's only a 1% chance of us both flopping a set. If we flop a set, there are only two cards left for him to also flop a set with. Here's the math if you want:
176 flops where we both flop a set out of 17296 possible flops. Feel free to dispute these numbers.

PJM1206

10-18-2005, 06:43 AM

The [poster is talking full 10 handed ring gmaes. You would get a different answer in 6max

10-18-2005, 07:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Aaron, the single pocket pair I'm holding does little to drop the odds. It's a lot closer to 46 % than 25 %, that's for sure. I am holding one of 26 pocket pairs. If you rule out those two cards that I'm holding, there's still plenty of ways to make pocket pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

There aren't really 26 pocket pairs. Out of 1326 possible hands, there are 78 pocket pairs. So normally we have a 5.9% chance of getting a pocket pair. If we have a pocket pair, then there are 73 ways left for someone else to get one, out of 1225 possible hands, for a 6.0% chance.

Assuming a 10 person table, the chance that one or more other players holds a PP is:
1 - (94%)^9 = 43%
This also assumes that each player's hand is independent of the others, which isn't true but probably doesn't affect it that much. I might be wrong.

Anyway, that might seem like a lot but if only one other player has a PP, I think there's only a 1% chance of us both flopping a set. If we flop a set, there are only two cards left for him to also flop a set with. Here's the math if you want:
176 flops where we both flop a set out of 17296 possible flops. Feel free to dispute these numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll just try to expand a bit on these numbers, but it's a while since I had any Maths, so feel free to correct me.

If we have a pocketpair, let's assume for the sake of simplicity that the chance of someone else also having one is 40%. This might be a bit of, but I don't think it'll chance the final outcome much.

Now, the chance of us flopping a set is about 12.5%. The chance of someone else also flopping a set is less, around 8.5%, since there are now only 2 cards in the flop that can make the set. So, the total chance of someone flopping a set when we flop one is (40% of someone having a pp in the first place) * (12.5% chance that we flop a set) * (8.5% that villain also flops his set) equaling a total of 0.425% or around 235-to-1.

In other words, you should fear a straight or a flush much more than an overset, and get as much value as you can every time.

Again, the final number was quite a bit smaller than I thought it would be, so I probably did a silly mistake somewhere....

10-18-2005, 08:31 AM

isnt the 3.5% of the time just for the time the other player hits a set as well as you?

and... we were comparing say... 88? (the lowest of the limpable hands) with 33?

so if you have 33.... the only oversets that fit this criteria are 4-8 out of 13?

so really the percent of the time this will matter is 5/13 X .035 = 1.3%?

and then you have to take in to account all the times the board is scary enough for you to back off with your set which puts that loss to about probably 4.5BB on average?

1.3% of 4.5BB is .06BB

how is that not negligent?

TripleH68

10-18-2005, 12:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Suppose you knew you that villain had a pocket pair and you flopped a set. What are the chances of him also flopping a set? You know 5 cards (your pocket pair, his pocket pair, and your set card). There are 47 unknown cards in the deck, two of which help villain. So the probability that one of those two cards shows up on the flop (two draws) is 1 - (45/47)(44/46) = 14%. So when you *KNOW* that villain has a pocket pair, 14% of the time he hits a set. If my 25% number above is correct, then you run into set over set 3.5% of the time which is about 27.5:1 against. This is approaching the realm of insignificant.

[ QUOTE ]
losing a 20+ BB pot 1/16 of the time that you flop a set is not an insignificant and tends to reduce your implied odds by a BB or two.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, when the pot size is 20+ BB, you probably only put in 5-6 big bets yourself. So you're not losing as much as you think you are.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was trying to add up some stats of when I have hit sets with 66-22 and lost, but I am afraid my sample size is too small. A quick and dirty look tells me that removing these hands I am still slightly in the red so at least I have a better feel for what is happening.

Thanks for the discussion. It is helping to get my mind straight about what is happening with low pps. Of course in SSH(tight games) on page 80 Miller says to play AA-77 in EP if there is no raise, any pp in middle position if there is no raise.

Also in rereading HPFAP I realize that many micro/small games on the internet may be slightly too aggressive preflop and/or slightly too passive postflop to make playing 66-22 profitable up front. Depends on your game situation of course, but it does not seem there is much to lose by tightening up considerably with these starters most of the time.

In my database I have hands where it gets raised after me preflop and I have hands where I flop a set and get little action postflop.

Here is a set over set example fwiw...

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (6 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, MP2 raises, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG folds, MP2 3-bets, Hero caps, MP2 calls.

River: (15.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 17.25 BB

Results in white below: 
MP2 has 9d 9c (three of a kind, nines).
Hero has 3s 3d (three of a kind, threes).
Outcome: MP2 wins 17.25 BB.

deception5

10-18-2005, 12:53 PM

I would quit limping them in MP as well when you are the first player to enter the pot. The likelyhood of getting raised is much higher than when you limp in early position and the probability of getting 5 players to the flop is lower.

deception5

10-18-2005, 12:57 PM

Hand 5 I would consider raising preflop if the blinds are tight.

TripleH68

10-18-2005, 01:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would quit limping them in MP as well when you are the first player to enter the pot. The likelyhood of getting raised is much higher than when you limp in early position and the probability of getting 5 players to the flop is lower.

[/ QUOTE ]

A quick look at PT filtering for position proves this advice to be very good.

TripleH68

10-18-2005, 01:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 5 I would consider raising preflop if the blinds are tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have had success raising low pps preflop and will cautiously look for more opportunities.
My pfr% in full ring is right at 8% so I am curious...

10-18-2005, 02:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Aaron, the single pocket pair I'm holding does little to drop the odds. It's a lot closer to 46 % than 25 %, that's for sure. I am holding one of 26 pocket pairs. If you rule out those two cards that I'm holding, there's still plenty of ways to make pocket pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

There aren't really 26 pocket pairs. Out of 1326 possible hands, there are 78 pocket pairs. So normally we have a 5.9% chance of getting a pocket pair. If we have a pocket pair, then there are 73 ways left for someone else to get one, out of 1225 possible hands, for a 6.0% chance.

Assuming a 10 person table, the chance that one or more other players holds a PP is:
1 - (94%)^9 = 43%
This also assumes that each player's hand is independent of the others, which isn't true but probably doesn't affect it that much. I might be wrong.

Anyway, that might seem like a lot but if only one other player has a PP, I think there's only a 1% chance of us both flopping a set. If we flop a set, there are only two cards left for him to also flop a set with. Here's the math if you want:
176 flops where we both flop a set out of 17296 possible flops. Feel free to dispute these numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]

176/17296 possible flops that hit both PP.= .101%
*number of times both have PP = .43*.101 = .004%

+ Hero has pocket 3s. 6\73 times Hero will have the set over set (33 vs 22) and 1/73 can't happen (33 vs 33)

= .004%*67/73 = .0037% = 1:270

Just in case your interested.

22 = .004 %
33 = .0037%
44 = .0033%
55 = .003%
66 = .0026%
77 = .0023%
88 = .0019%
99 = .0016%
TT = .0013%
JJ = .001%
QQ = .00065%
KK = .0004%
AA = 0

cfjr2

10-18-2005, 02:38 PM

the math -
your chance for a specific pp = 4/52 * 3/51 = .004525 (220:1)
there are 13 specific pp so = 13 * .004525 = .058824 (16:1)

once you have a pp odds of another person having a pp are
12 * .004525 +(2/50 * 1/49)= .054299 + .000816= .055115 (17:1)

you have a pp = ~5.9%
playing against another pp = ~5.5%

you flop a set = 2/50 + 2/49 + 2/48 = .122483 (7.2:1)
overset = 2/50 + 2/49 + 0 (your card) = .0808163 (11.4:1)

so there is a 5.5% chance of another pp existing and an 8.1% chance of both flopping a set = .004455 (.45%) (223:1)

edit
sorry multiply the above by x where x = number of opponents (9 in 10 handed game) - also x should be the number seeing the flop - folded hands don't count.

Even with 6 people seeing the flop with you it is still very small chance
/edit

Oh - don't forget - you may still hit the turn or river for quads or a house...of course you need to worry your house made him quads (MUBS)

rather than worry about an overset worry about flush and str8 draws - much more likely (of course you do still have outs to the house / quads)