Betting draws OOP into a PFR: Theory Question

[ajmargarine]

Had a discussion going late last night about betting draws OOP. Got me thinking about it some. Hypothetical situations.

Hero is BB in a $1 BB, 6-max game. MP raises to $3.50, folds to Hero who calls, so we are HU agst the PFR who is an average player. Do you lead into the PFR in these situations:

1. Hero holds Kd Qd, flop is Jd 6d 2c.

2. Hero holds Ah 9h, flop is Qh 5h 3d.

3. Hero holds 7c 6c, flop is Qh 8h 5s.

4. Hero holds Kd Jd, flop is Qh 9d 2c.

Why do you lead into him? Why is it better to lead than c/c?
What is the plan if PFR makes a pot-sized raise to your bet?
What is the plan if he calls, and the turn bricks: do you lead again? check/fold?
And finally, what if the button called preflop also and you are three-handed. Do you still lead into both of them in the above hands.

Discuss. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Ghazban]

In my experience, whether to lead into somebody on a draw is a lot more opponent-specific than board-specific.

Some reasons to lead:
-- villain will call a bet but not raise with several hands he would have bet larger than you are betting (e.g. you bet 2/3 pot, he calls but had you checked, he would have bet 2xPot)
-- villain's raising range is quite large and he will fold many hands worse than top pair to a bet
-- villain is incapable of recognizing that you might be on a draw and will pay it off big (this sometimes requires more than 100BB stacks to be relevant depending on the strength of the draw and the size of the preflop raise)

Some reasons not to:
-- villain slowplays too often with hands that are not strong enough to slowplay
-- villain's continuation bets are often small relative to the pot (giving good odds to draw)
-- villain never continuation bets missed overcards

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
Had a discussion going late last night about betting draws OOP. Got me thinking about it some. Hypothetical situations.

Hero is BB in a $1 BB, 6-max game. MP raises to $3.50, folds to Hero who calls, so we are HU agst the PFR who is an average player. Do you lead into the PFR in these situations:

1. Hero holds Kd Qd, flop is Jd 6d 2c.

2. Hero holds Ah 9h, flop is Qh 5h 3d.

3. Hero holds 7c 6c, flop is Qh 8h 5s.

4. Hero holds Kd Jd, flop is Qh 9d 2c.

Why do you lead into him? Why is it better to lead than c/c?
What is the plan if PFR makes a pot-sized raise to your bet?
What is the plan if he calls, and the turn bricks: do you lead again? check/fold?
And finally, what if the button called preflop also and you are three-handed. Do you still lead into both of them in the above hands.

Discuss. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Stack sizes and reads are required for this sort of thing. Maybe a better player than I can break down each situation into deep stacks, medium stacks, short stacks and loose passive opponent, LAG opponent, tight passive opponent.

[ajmargarine]

Hmm. I guess I am thinking about this in a general concept sort of way. The calling station way is to c/c this. I am wondering about advantages and disadvantages with leading vs. c/c'ing.

[Skuzzy]

yes, yes, yes (sometimes no),no ( by average i assume you mean average overall not average winning)

I lead to disguise my hand if the draw comes in on the turn and to try and take it down right there. I don't mind letting go when the price to draw is sky rocketed and the initiaive taken away by a PSR (dont see too many PSR's at NL100 anyway) If he calls I lead again on the turn (mostly - a lot of players will call the flop and let go to a turn bet ) - the board texture here is very important to me.

I also c/r my draws sometimes against tight ABC players who will fold top pair hands to pressure.

3 handed I want more outs or at least outs to the nuts. heads up, first to act can be used to your advantage, with two to come I revert to weak tight type.


I'm sure there are reasons and justifications for playing more aggresively and weaker.


assumptions are made in all cases that villain is not short stacked /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]

-- villain never continuation bets missed overcards

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoa now. This is exactly the type of villain I lead my flops into. He will fold when he misses, why let him check behind and catch a free "6 outer"?

[xorbie]

To reply to OP:

With QK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif on the J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif2/images/graemlins/heart.gif type board I am only betting if one of two things is true:

(a) I intend on pushing to a raise (which is almost never the case, because besides AJ I'm really not doing too hot against his raising hands)

(b) I don't mind getting all in on a Q or K (which again is almost never the case).

I a case like this, you have one very strong draw (second nut flush draw), and one very lesser draw (two overcards). However, your second draw might certainly be good, and you might certainly want to see a showdown here without hitting your flush. Thus a check/call is IMO superior on this board because you it leaves you some room to manuever around if a Q or K peels off.

With a straight draw on a flush draw board, I will often check/call with the intention of leading 2/3 to full pot if the flush hits and check/raising if my straight hits.

With just a straight draw (with some low cards) I am leading out pretty often.

[TheRegulat0r]

I'm more likely to lead with the flush draw (maybe 80% of the time) than the open-ended straight draw (maybe 20% of the time) because I think the flush draw needs more disgusing to get paid off. It's definitely opponent dependent though.

[KKrAAAzy88s]

[ QUOTE ]

What is the plan if PFR makes a pot-sized raise to your bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

as stated by others, things are opponent/situation specific, but...
What about the min-raise? You know this happens way more often than the pot-sized reraise. Therefore if you know this, lead b/c then you still will have odds to call his min-raise as he bloats the pot for you with your nut oesd or nfd.

Donks can pick up the c/c, c/c as a draw, but may not necessarily think you are betting your OESD or NFD - better disguised. He may think you are betting into him with a better hand such as 2 pair/set. Depending on the opponent and your read, you may consider betting into him again on the turn as he may fold thinking that his TP is no good or if he missed he will most likely lay it down fairly quickly too. If he's a calling station, then isn't leading into him cost the same as check/calling w/o giving away that you may have a draw?

Don't forget that some donks like to slow play too when they do hit their sets! Obviously it is very difficult to sniff out the set that the opponent has, but if you lead and he just calls and you hit your card on the turn, his stack may be yours.

Obviously you need to mix it up here and there with these types of draws, but... Go for their throats!

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
To reply to OP:

With QK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif on the J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif2/images/graemlins/heart.gif type board I am only betting if one of two things is true:


....With just a straight draw (with some low cards) I am leading out pretty often.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmmmm. I am exact opposite on this. I am betting the KQs in hand one almost all the time against most opponents. Flush draw, two overs. The flush is disguised somewhat if it hits by leading. Two overs gives you more outs, although you have to be careful if they hit.

With just a low-card OESD, I often c/c. I have less outs, therefore less chance of hitting. I don't want to bloat the pot. If I do hit, I can always c/r the turn, or lead the turn...most players don't believe you can hold 45s against a PFR and will call you down at the least.

PS. I like your line on the straight draw on a flush board.

[xorbie]

If you lead out with QK and get raised, what do you do?

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
If you lead out with QK and get raised, what do you do?

[/ QUOTE ]

I call. And this is one of the disadvantages of leading the flop. It costs you more to see the turn this way. And after I call, and the turn bricks, I am probably c/c'ing. Only a set from villian will be overly strong with a big turn bet. Other hands have to be cautious fearing a c/r.

[xorbie]

Villains who raise flop bets generally have overpairs and generally are not worried about check/raises, they are worried about how to best get all in.

[GrunchCan]

To reply to the OP.

I know you were asking for actions on specific scenarios, but I'd like to address something much more general.

Betting a draw for value is +EV when you have an equity edge based on the number of opponents who call. For example. You have a nut flush draw on the flop, and 5 opponents. You PSB and 1 opponent calls. Your bet was -EV as far as value is concerned, becasue you don't have 51% equity in the pot. If you had bet half pot and got 4 callers, that bet is correct becasue you do have more than 20% equity.

Therefore, betting a draw for value is correct when you have an equity edge against the number of opponents who call.

This is somewhat more difficult to evaluate in no-limit than in limit, becasue implied odds can have a much bigger impact. On the other hand, if you make your flush you are less likely to get a value call from an opponent who has just 1 pair in no-limit than in limit, so reverse implied odds are in effect here whereas in limit they are not.

But regardless, the basic rule applies to both structures. If you have an equity edge, betting is for value.

Note that I have specifically disregarded the effect of fold equity.

[Bco1/75]

I don't think any of those hands have the value to call a PFR OOP. Thus you shouldn't ever be in this hypothetical situation. From the sounds of your post you don't consider the villian's playing style. Before I answer yours, Let me ask a question don't take offense to it it's legit:

/images/graemlins/club.gifDo you find yourself always playing your hands and not your opponents hand?

1. Two reasons; It is not so obvious when you hit a flush and he dumps TP. and because of Fold Equity added to the equity of making your hand.

2. Dump it

3. Check or Bet, depends on your read on the player. Mostly check.

Any one care to comment on my response?