Iraqi Elections..... is the insurgency weaker?

[Stu Pidasso]

It was a relatively peaceful election day in Iraq. Even more peaceful than the last elections(I'm sure Grey and Elliot are quite upset right now). Is this an indication the insurgency is weakening?

Stu

[Dynasty]

The insurgency has been getting steadily weaker in a military sense for quite a while. They used to be able to threaten important targets like Iraq's oil production infrastructure. Now, they often seem to select targets which have little military or economic significance.

The elections are a big political blow to their efforts. If the citizens and political leaders of Iraq's different cultural groups are able to form and maintain a working government, the game is won. All that's left is for the new Iraqi government to complete building a military which can defend the country itself.

[sam h]

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Is this an indication the insurgency is weakening?

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There is no way to tell. The insurgency looked quite strong in the weaks before the election. Maybe they wanted to launch attacks and were foiled, maybe they thought it would be counterproductive to attack polling places. Who knows?

[sam h]

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If the citizens and political leaders of Iraq's different cultural groups are able to form and maintain a working government, the game is won.

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Sustaining democratic regimes has been very difficult historically for developing countries. This fact is largely underappreciated in America because of our relatively unique experience with democratic rule. Moreover, Iraq possesses just about every characteristic that has been identified to make democracy especially unlikely to take permanent root.

An escalation of conflict leading to a partition of the country is much more likely than a unified democracy emerging in the long term.

[Cyrus]

I am guessing that the American presence in Iraq is getting more and more popular by each passing day. And the elections should be interpreted as an affirmation of the Iraqi people's gratitude for the United States saving them from Weapons of Mass Destruction.

...No, scratch that, saving them from destitution and chaos.

...Hmmm, no, better make that saving them from Osama bin Laden.

...Wait, scratch that too. Saving them from religious fanatics and civil war.

...Wait, ooops. Goddamn it.

[MMMMMM]

[ QUOTE ]
I am guessing that the American presence in Iraq is getting more and more popular by each passing day. And the elections should be interpreted as an affirmation of the Iraqi people's gratitude for the United States saving them from Weapons of Mass Destruction.

...No, scratch that, saving them from destitution and chaos.

...Hmmm, no, better make that saving them from Osama bin Laden.

...Wait, scratch that too. Saving them from religious fanatics and civil war.

...Wait, ooops. Goddamn it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Never mind, Cyrus; I'll fix your post for you; here you go:


"I am guessing that the American presence in Iraq is getting more and more popular by each passing day. And the elections should be interpreted as an affirmation of the Iraqi people's gratitude for the United States saving them from an evil tyrant; who systematically terrorized and tortured his perceived political opponents, and murdered hundreds of thousands of Iraqi citizens, and who led his country into a disastrous war against Iran, and squandered his country's wealth by enriching cronies and building dozens of palaces and erecting statues of himself at traffic intersections; from a pair of sadistic wild sons with unrestricted power, who kidnapped young women on the streets for rape parties, and who were trained in the actual arts and implementation of torture by their father; from a host of cronies in positions of power who employed Stalinist-style security methods against the populace on pain of death from their leader, who himself was an avowed worshiper of the methods of Stalin, even keeping Stalin's writings by his bedside as his favored nightime reading; and from a regime that forced fathers and children of political suspects to watch as their wives and mothers were raped, beaten and tortured, and which tortured children in order to extract information from their parents, and which forcibly employed doctors to blind people and amputate limbs as punishment for suspected political reasons; and which committed genocide against the Kurds and against the "Swamp Arabs"; and from overall oppression of country's majority ethnic groups by a minority group."

Now, how hard was it to think of those things, Cyrus? Heck if I didn't know any better I'd almost guess you left those things out on purpose.

[New001]

If that were the #1 issue with going to war, it should have been stated as such as the war began. If I recall, it was not. Why go after Saddam specifically when there are others like him? Obviously this world is better off without idiots like Saddam. I still wouldn't be in favor of taking him or another similar leader of another country out, but the least this or any future administration can do is label our actions as such.

The whole, "Well, we didn't find any weapons, this whole terrorism thing was dubious at best, but gee, Saddam really was a bad guy." thing is getting kind of old to me.

[Cyrus]

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Never mind, Cyrus; I'll fix your post for you.

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Never mind Cyrus; what you just wrote, is it supported by the Iraqi people?

This is what you should be trying to fix.

[Cyrus]

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The insurgency has been getting steadily weaker in a military sense for quite a while.

[/ QUOTE ]

CNN Report (http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/10/16/iraq.main/index.html) :

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The U.S. military reported that a roadside bomb Saturday killed five U.S. soldiers near Ramadi, west of Baghdad in Anbar province.
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The soldiers were assigned to the 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 2nd Marine Division, II Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward).
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In another incident, a homemade bomb killed one U.S. Marine on Saturday in Saqlawiya, northwest of Falluja, the U.S. military said.
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The U.S. death toll in the Iraq war now stands at 1,980.

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[Cyrus]

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The insurgency has been getting steadily weaker in a military sense for quite a while.

[/ QUOTE ] CNN report (http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/10/21/iraq.main/index.html) :

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Three U.S. soldiers with Task Force Liberty were killed and one was wounded Wednesday night when their combat patrol struck a roadside bomb near the Iraqi city of Balad, the military said. A suicide car bomb killed a Marine from the 2nd Expeditionary Force Wednesday in Karabila, which is in Anbar province near the Syrian border. The deaths brought to 1,985 the number of U.S. troops who have died in Iraq.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meanwhile, back at the White House Ranch, the president dismisses the adverse political climate :

CNN report: (http://edition.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/10/20/bush.background.noise.ap/index.html)
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It's all "background noise, chatter, speculation and opining."

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[Cyrus]

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The insurgency has been getting steadily weaker in a military sense for quite a while.

[/ QUOTE ]

CNN report (http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/10/24/iraq.main/index.html) :


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October 24, 2005
Four American contractors were killed in an attack north of Baghdad on September 20, the U.S. military said Sunday. Another two Americans were injured in the attack near Duluiya, said a spokesman for Task Force Liberty, 42nd Infantry Division. U.S. contractor KBR, a subsidiary of Halliburton Co., said three of its employees were killed that day, said Halliburton spokeswoman Cathy Mann.

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...But please stay tuned for some happy news about the Iraqi referendum. "Mission Accomplished!"

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(I'm sure Grey and Elliot are quite upset right now).

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You're a prick. [censored] you.

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You're a prick. [censored] you.



[/ QUOTE ]

That's a bit harsh. And extreeeeeemely personal. Should be worthy of at least a slap on the wrist my one of the mods.

[Stu Pidasso]

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That's a bit harsh. And extreeeeeemely personal. Should be worthy of at least a slap on the wrist my one of the mods.

[/ QUOTE ]

In all fairness you could say the exact same thing about my comment. Truth be told, If I could go back and edit that original post I would leave his name out and instead substitute it with Cyrus.

Stu

[MMMMMM]

Cyrus, Dynasty made the statement that "The insurgency has been getting steadily weaker in a military sense for quite a while"

Your response was to cite an incident of insurgent attacks. Now you have bumped the thread for the sole purpose of citing another such incident. Such citings do nothing to support or diminish Dynasty's claim, or to answer Stu's question; they are not comparative analysis, and only comparative analysis (even if cursory) can provide any rebuttal or support of such a claim--as you well know.

Less posturing and more intellectual honesty, please.

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In all fairness you could say the exact same thing about my comment. Truth be told, If I could go back and edit that original post I would leave his name out and instead substitute it with Cyrus.



[/ QUOTE ]


I see your point and your post makes you a Stand-up Guy in my book.

However, I still think Elliot's post went too far.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


In all fairness you could say the exact same thing about my comment. Truth be told, If I could go back and edit that original post I would leave his name out and instead substitute it with Cyrus.



[/ QUOTE ]


I see your point and your post makes you a Stand-up Guy in my book.

However, I still think Elliot's post went too far.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough. Let's just say I take it very personally to be accused of actually cheering for the people killing our soldiers. Were I young enough to be eligible for service I would volunteer to go, despite now believing that the war was a big mistake. But I do apologize for the overly personal and angry reaction.

[nicky g]

"The insurgency has been getting steadily weaker in a military sense for quite a while. They used to be able to threaten important targets like Iraq's oil production infrastructure. Now, they often seem to select targets which have little military or economic significance."


On Sunday:
Blast Halts North Iraq oil exports (http://za.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&amp;storyID=2005-10-23T133204Z_01_ALL341294_RTRIDST_0_OZABS-ENERGY-IRAQ-NORTH-20051023.XML)

I think you underestimate the extent to which we don't hear about this stuff as much as we used to. Or have you seen statistics showing that attacks on oil infrastructure, US troops etc, have fallen? I'd be interested to see them.