$22: 99, underpair against a push

[gp?]

I doubt he flopped trips because of his push, but he could play like this with AT. thoughts on the call?

***** Hand History for Game 2888345074 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:16646980 Level:4 Blinds(50/100) - Sunday, October 16, 22:30:50 EDT 2005
Table Table 67206 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: jtakeo11 ( $1460 )
Seat 2: grizabe ( $2355 )
Seat 4: clubcliq2 ( $1510 )
Seat 5: Billybobjunk ( $765 )
Seat 9: PantzRansom ( $210 )
Seat 10: WORM2222 ( $1700 )
Trny:16646980 Level:4
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to grizabe [ 9h 9s ]
>You have options at Table 67241 Table!.
grizabe raises [325].
clubcliq2 calls [325].
Billybobjunk folds.
PantzRansom folds.
WORM2222 folds.
jtakeo11 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jh, Th, Js ]
grizabe checks.
clubcliq2 is all-In [1185]
grizabe calls [1185].

I would actually put him on a big pair, maybe queens. I would grit my teeth and fold this. The only reason that I think he might be on a higher pp is because of his calling a 3xBB raise.

Just out of curiosity, for all the other responders to this thread, is his raise with 99 UTG+1 right? I would limp here, as it's early, and we're in no trouble from the blinds.

[flyingmoose]

I fold. This is NOT a way-ahead-way-behind scenario, it's a way behind or kinda ahead situation. His bet looks like it's probably KQ or a flush draw, making your call slightly +cEV with the dead money, but almost certainly not +$EV. When you're behind, you have 2 outs, when you're ahead, he has 8+. I don't like it.

[gp?]

[ QUOTE ]
Just out of curiosity, for all the other responders to this thread, is his raise with 99 UTG+1 right? I would limp here, as it's early, and we're in no trouble from the blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think limping at these blinds is a bad idea.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
Just out of curiosity, for all the other responders to this thread, is his raise with 99 UTG+1 right? I would limp here, as it's early, and we're in no trouble from the blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I fold here. The thing is, I think if we're ahead, it's not by much (AK and KQ have 13 outs, etc), and if we're behind, we're obviously far behind. You're very rarely very far ahead (88 and down) here.

Oh and I responded to this post because I think limping at these blind levels, pretty much as a rule, is a leak. If there is a hand that I'm not comfortable playing for a raise, I would just fold.

99 is borderline for me. I am unsure whether I fold or raise here. But I don't think raising here preflop is a leak. Just don't like the call after the flop.

I wonder if leading out on the flop is a good idea here. If he has a T or KQ he may likely fold here, of course if he did hit trips you are in some trouble. I don't know if we can put him on anything in particular after this flop.

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
99 is borderline for me. I am unsure whether I fold or raise here. But I don't think raising here preflop is a leak. Just don't like the call after the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure if you're saying you'd fold 99 preflop here, but if you are folding 99 preflop with 23.5x BB stack and opening from the SB would be very very wrong.

I think I muck this after the flop and keep my big stack for when the blinds get higher. This is way to risky a flop to blow my chip lead on, especially when the situation is about to get delicious with the blinds.

[Femto]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold. This is NOT a way-ahead-way-behind scenario, it's a way behind or kinda ahead situation.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with this. My gut says you are currently ahead, but no point in blowing the chip lead on such a situation.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
99 is borderline for me. I am unsure whether I fold or raise here. But I don't think raising here preflop is a leak. Just don't like the call after the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure if you're saying you'd fold 99 preflop here, but if you are folding 99 preflop with 23.5x BB stack and opening from the SB would be very very wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's not opening from the SB, he's opening UTG. Pretty big difference.

Obviously I would never fold this opening from the SB.

Also, although I failed to mention it in the first post, one of the reasons the open here is fine is that it's six handed. Ten handed, 23xBB or not, open-raising 99 UTG is just asking to get yourself into a difficult preflop situation. In fact, this is probably true ESPECIALLY because you have around 20xBB.

[schwza]

i'd make it 250 or 275 pre-flop.

i think betting the flop or check/folding are both fine, but check/calling is really bad. you're praying to be a slight favorite, and almost all hands that call you pre-flop are now way ahead or slightly behind you. what hands are you crushing? 88-, A9- (still 6 outs, maybe more on turn). and if you're behind, you're drawing to 2 outs and some backdoor outs. that's pretty bad facing a 1.5x push.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
99 is borderline for me. I am unsure whether I fold or raise here. But I don't think raising here preflop is a leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think folding here is too tight. for those who want a fold, replace "utg" with "MP2" and maybe it'll sound better. i'd happily raise with smaller pairs.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
99 is borderline for me. I am unsure whether I fold or raise here. But I don't think raising here preflop is a leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think folding here is too tight. for those who want a fold, replace "utg" with "MP2" and maybe it'll sound better. i'd happily raise with smaller pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that folding here (six handed) is too tight.

But why would folding in MP be better?

I assume you're thinking that you are more likely to be given credit for a big pair raising UTG, and so less likely to be played back at?

But at the same time, isn't that value diminished by the chance that you'll be called behind you and will have to play a big pot, out of position, likely to face overs, unsure if you had an underpair preflop (people will often smoothcall with TT-JJ here) regardless, likely pot committing yourself with any lead bet (considering not your stack but the stacks that could call) and putting yourself to a tough decision with any open check on the flop.

That doesn't sound too good to me.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
99 is borderline for me. I am unsure whether I fold or raise here. But I don't think raising here preflop is a leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think folding here is too tight. for those who want a fold, replace "utg" with "MP2" and maybe it'll sound better. i'd happily raise with smaller pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that folding here (six handed) is too tight.

But why would folding in MP be better?

I assume you're thinking that you are more likely to be given credit for a big pair raising UTG, and so less likely to be played back at?

But at the same time, isn't that value diminished by the chance that you'll be called behind you and will have to play a big pot, out of position, likely to face overs, unsure if you had an underpair preflop (people will often smoothcall with TT-JJ here) regardless, likely pot committing yourself with any lead bet (considering not your stack but the stacks that could call) and putting yourself to a tough decision with any open check on the flop.

That doesn't sound too good to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

my mistake - i wasn't clear. i meant that the folders would think "99 in MP2" would sound more like a playable hand than "99 in UTG," so they wouldn't want to fold. i.e., utg 6-handed = MP2 10-handed.

[sofere]

Oops...misread OP...huked on fonics didnt werk fer me. I want my mony bak.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
my mistake - i wasn't clear. i meant that the folders would think "99 in MP2" would sound more like a playable hand than "99 in UTG," so they wouldn't want to fold. i.e., utg 6-handed = MP2 10-handed.

[/ QUOTE ]

"i see" said the blind man.

and here i was all geared up to argue =) (fwiw, i really respect your posts, and you are one of the few lower limit posters whose word i generally take as gospel, so i was looking forward to getting into it with you. heh.)

[gp?]

thanks for the responses.

[schwza]

thanks man /images/graemlins/grin.gif