JJ Hand

[CashFlo]

First orbit, no reads.

Too weak-tight on the turn? Thanks.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 players)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
[/b] UTG Calls, 4 folds, CO Calls, Hero Raises, 2 folds, UTG Calls, CO Calls.

Flop: (7.5 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
UTG Bets, CO Folds, Hero Raises, UTG Calls.

Turn: (5 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG Bets, Hero Folds.

[hobbsmann]

I call down. I would expect this guy to c/r the turn if he really had a K.

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
I call down.

[/ QUOTE ]
I initially thought this, but maybe we should raise/fold to 3-bet. An A or Q river is going to suck to call, where if our raise is just called on the turn here, I think we can value-bet the river too.

[Borodog]

[ QUOTE ]
we should raise/fold to 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[ QUOTE ]
if our raise is just called on the turn here, I think we can value-bet the river too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excuse me, I just threw up in my mouth a little. If you get called here, take your free showdown. Once you've raised preflop, flop, and turn, even many opponents with a crappy King will put you on a better one and be making crying calls.

[eviljeff]

I've found that donk bets like this are much more likely in cases where the donk does not have a K. I'm going to showdown.

[Delzek15]

I'd call down. When the K comes out that even gives a less likely chance that he has one. If he did... I think he'd check raise you.

[Borodog]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd call down. When the K comes out that even gives a less likely chance that he has one. If he did... I think he'd check raise you.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a reason to raise, not call, the turn stop and go.

[hobbsmann]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd call down. When the K comes out that even gives a less likely chance that he has one. If he did... I think he'd check raise you.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a reason to raise, not call, the turn stop and go.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are going to raise the turn then you really need to be value betting the river.

The reason I don't like raising this turn is that I don't want to put myself in position to fold the best hand. I think two bets going in on the big streets is preferable so I call the turn and call a river bet or bet if checked to.

[Borodog]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are going to raise the turn then you really need to be value betting the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true. We raise the turn because we don't want to see an Ace or a Queen drop off the deck, nor give a free shot to boat up to an underpair. If our turn raise is called, though, we are very often looking at a poor King. In other words, once the second King hits and he stop & go's me, which I don't think is usually a King, but might be, I've decided I'm putting in 2 more BB, and that's all. If he 3-bets me on the turn, I'm folding. Honestly, if you get 3-bet on the turn on this board, JJ is good 0% of the time. But once he calls my 3-bet, his chances of having a poor king go way up. So far up that I'm checking behind on the river.

[ QUOTE ]
The reason I don't like raising this turn is that I don't want to put myself in position to fold the best hand. I think two bets going in on the big streets is preferable so I call the turn and call a river bet or bet if checked to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, you get 3-bet here on the turn with a hand that loses to JJ 0% of the time. The only argument I can see for calling the turn instead of raising with the intention of folding to a 3-bet is that you lose the chance to boat up on the river for the same price. But I don't think letting an A, Q, or his boat hit the river for free makes up for drawing to a 2 outer because you fear a King that he usually doesn't have.

For the record, I don't think a call-down is terrible. I just prefer raise/fold, check behind better.

One thing I'm not sure what I would do with is this: You raise the turn, he calls . . . and stop & go's you again. WTF?

[hobbsmann]

[ QUOTE ]

Not true. We raise the turn because we don't want to see an Ace or a Queen drop off the deck, nor give a free shot to boat up to an underpair. If our turn raise is called, though, we are very often looking at a poor King. In other words, once the second King hits and he stop & go's me, which I don't think is usually a King, but might be, I've decided I'm putting in 2 more BB, and that's all. If he 3-bets me on the turn, I'm folding. Honestly, if you get 3-bet on the turn on this board, JJ is good 0% of the time. But once he calls my 3-bet, his chances of having a poor king go way up. So far up that I'm checking behind on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
The reason I think raising this turn is not optimal is that the hands that have outs against us, don't have very many (i.e read 3 or so) except for exactly AQ. I prefer to treat this as a WA/WB type situation where you allow villian to keep betting with a worse hand. I guess I kind of agree with now that the times a raise on the turn is called villian will have a K a fair portion of the time. But, this should be even more a reason to not raise as when we are behind and raise we stand to lose 2 bets and win 1 bet while when we call/call we stand to win 2 bets when ahead.

[W. Deranged]

What do people think of calling the turn and then raising the river?

Hobbs makes a good point: many hands have only a few outs against this, and raising the turn may only encourage a correct fold when an opponent with a hand like TT would keep betting down. I also REALLY don't want to be put in a position to fold the best hand, and raising the river tends to discourage villains from three-betting with weak hands (largely because they're less worried we're making a move) and so we're in less of a position to get forced to fold.

Just a thought. I don't know if I like this better than raising the turn or just calling down. My sense is that on the third BB that goes in we are only marginally ahead in equity, and so the three different paths (calling down, raising the turn, and raising the river) should have pretty similar EVs.