Flopped low 2-pair, pf raiser bets

1/2 Limit on Bet365. Villain, after 50 hands, is 15.52/13.79/6

Hero dealt 2/images/graemlins/club.gif2/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Pre-flop: UTG calls, Hero calls, Villain raises, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 4 folds, UTG calls, Hero calls

Flop (9.5 SB) (4 players): Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif4/images/graemlins/spade.gif4/images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG checked, Hero checked, Villain bet, MP3 folded, UTG folded, Hero ???

<font color="blue"> </font> Also, should I have bet the flop?

[xenthebrain]

I wouldn't bet into this many people with just the 2s.
Fold to the bet.

[Paxosmotic]

You didn't flop a low 2-pair. That's like saying you hold AKs on a QQQ flop and you flopped trips. You flopped an underpair. Just fold, you have two outs and enormous reverse implied odds.

[RandBriscoe]

Auto-fold.

I folded.

Afterwards, however, I wondered if raising to try to win the pot might be a reasonable play.

Here is my thinking. The Villain had shown massive aggression post-flop (and pre-flop, though tight). The board paired, making it less likely he hit his hand (assuming he did not have a pocket pair). If he missed his hand, the flop bet could simply be a continuation bet.

Given his tight nature, if he missed his hand, I think he might have folded to a check-raise. (I unintentionally omitted saying that he had not gone to any showdowns -- he either folded or was able to get his opponents to fold previously.) With 10.5 SB in the pot, if I raised (2 SB), that means I need to win the pot right then a little less than 20% of the time. (And I'm not putting any more money in U/I.) With Villain's stats, I wonder if I do get him to fold 20% of the time. I still suspect not because I wouldn't expect him to bet into 3 people, but a continuation bet is so common here . . . anyhow, that's why I posted this hand.

[milesdyson]

i'd raise this flop and bet the turn. he raises a bunch preflop and ace high hands look good on this flop, so it wouldn't surprise me at all that he'd bet here 4-handed AK/AJ/ATs/KJs/KTs. do you really think he'd not bet unimproved on the flop?

the great thing too is he may wind up folding 88-JJ either to the flop raise or to the turn bet. i can't see why everyone is saying this is an auto-fold.

[Shillx]

Eh I guess you can call and re-evaluate. There are some negative implied odds here as you are pretty much going to the end if you call now and the turn is a safe looking card. That plan seems reasonable enough to me though. Fold on 4th street if a bad card hits (an ace for example).

The only play I really hate is raising here. I can run some numbers on the EV of calling if you want me to. Actually I'll just do it because it is an interesting spot.

Brad

[Shillx]

Let's say that we check/fold to any turn A or Q. If the turn card isn't an ace or queen we will call-call no matter what comes on the river. Even if a deuce comes off we will just call for the sake of this exercise.

His range: 55+,A8s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+

Our 4th Street Win% = 36

EVfold now = 0

EVcalldown = .851(.36*9.75BB - 2.5BB) = + .86 BB
EVfold turn = .148*-0.5BB = -.07 BB

EVnet = ~ + 0.8 BB

This plan should work as long as you can count on him to put bets in with less then what you have. If he will sometimes give up on the river then it is closer, but calling down in this spot seems okay.

Brad

If we fold to any turn broadway...

EVcalldown = .596(.41*9.75BB - 2.5BB) = + .89 BB
EVfold turn = .404*-0.5BB = - .2 BB

EVnet = ~ + 0.7 BB

*Edited to say that I accidentally put in those times that we will call (on the river) even when our 2-pair turns to crap. So the actual EV will be somewhat higher then predicted since we would fold when the board is double paired.

[lautzutao]

You need to fold that flop. The only good 2's are in a multiway pot is for flopping sets...they aren't going to beat anything else.

Limping that far up front is somewhat questionable as well, unless the game is loose.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
1/2 Limit on Bet365. Villain, after 50 hands, is 15.52/13.79/6

Hero dealt 2/images/graemlins/club.gif2/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Pre-flop: UTG calls, Hero calls, Villain raises, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 4 folds, UTG calls, Hero calls

Flop (9.5 SB) (4 players): Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif4/images/graemlins/spade.gif4/images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG checked, Hero checked, Villain bet, MP3 folded, UTG folded, Hero ???

<font color="blue"> </font> Also, should I have bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the early read, villain raises a bunch of hands preflop. I don't mind doing any of the following:

1) Call down (if villain is very aggressive)
2) Check-raise flop, bet turn (if villain might get timid and take a cheap showdown)
3) Call flop, check-raise turn (if villain is capable of folding)
4) Call flop, call turn, bet river (if villain is aggressive, but has problems pulling a river bluff)

I think this hand could be a minor extension of the No set no bet? (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Board=&amp;Number=1970885&amp;page=&amp; view=&amp;sb=5&amp;o=&amp;fpart=) post from Entity a while back. I know that the situations are quite different, but I think the same idea still applies. Even though there's a high card on the board, it's only heads up, reducing the chances that someone has a better pair.

Thanks for running those numbers. It's interesting because I would not have suspected that calling was anything but the third option here.

Why do you hate raising here? As I mentioned above, in retrospect I am thinking that there is a decent argument that he folds 1 in 5 times to a flop check-raise, making such a check-raise correct.

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for running those numbers. It's interesting because I would not have suspected that calling was anything but the third option here.

Why do you hate raising here? As I mentioned above, in retrospect I am thinking that there is a decent argument that he folds 1 in 5 times to a flop check-raise, making such a check-raise correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

He folds to a flop C/R far less than 1 in 5.

[ChuckyB]

[ QUOTE ]
1/2 Limit on Bet365. Villain, after 50 hands, is 15.52/13.79/6

Hero dealt 2/images/graemlins/club.gif2/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Pre-flop: UTG calls, Hero calls, Villain raises, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 4 folds, UTG calls, Hero calls

Flop (9.5 SB) (4 players): Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif4/images/graemlins/spade.gif4/images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG checked, Hero checked, Villain bet, MP3 folded, UTG folded, Hero folds -- he didn't flop a set or a draw and he can't bet 3 players out of the pot and villain probably has him slaughtered with an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]


That said, if there were 25 small bets in the pot at this point...peel one off. But here, no.

[milesdyson]

let's use shill's range for simplicity.

55+,A8s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+

55-AA is 60 hands minus 3 for the Q on board. 57 hands.
A8s-AKs is 24 hands minus 1 for A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. 23 hands.
K9s-KQs is 16 hands minus 1 for K/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. 15 hands.
QTs-QJs is 8 hands minus 2 for Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. 6 hands.
JTs is the easy one. J/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif. 4 hands.
ATo-AKo is 48 hands minus 3 for A/images/graemlins/club.gif//images/graemlins/spade.gif//images/graemlins/heart.gifQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. 45 hands.
KJo-KQo is 24 hands minus 3 for K/images/graemlins/club.gif//images/graemlins/spade.gif//images/graemlins/heart.gifQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. 21 hands.

total = 57 + 23 + 15 + 6 + 4 + 45 + 21 = 171 hands.

now this guy, from what we've seen, has been playing in a way that has made his aggression factor really high. that tells me he's probably able to fold the hands he "should" fold to a flop check raise, if not fold even more often. what do i think he'd fold on this flop if we raise? my take:

A8s-AJs. 16 hands.
K9s-KJs. 12 hands.
JTs. 4 hands.
ATo-AJo. 24 hands.
KJo. 12 hands.

total there = 16 + 12 + 4 + 24 + 12 = 68 hands.

one fifth of his hand range is 0.2*171, or 34 hands. so we could discount this range by 50% and he would STILL fold 1/5 of the time.

now in my opinion, this guy will find folds here with more hands than i've put in my range. for instance, i omitted any pocket pairs in his folding range. i think he would fold middle pair some % of the time here.

Grunching...

Fold the flop, raising would have been reckless with a Q on the board.

Nice post. You've articulated with very good detail the concept that may have been stirring around in my mind.

Because the board paired, there was a much greater chance the flop did not hit his hand. I think that's reflected in the number of hands you identified that beats Villain and/or makes him feel weak enough to fold. This is exacerbated, I think, by the fact that the flop also contained two low cards (4s) (unlikely he had a 4 in his hand, given his preflop raise).

I'm persuaded now that Villain, given his aggression, has Q, 4, or pocket pairs well less than 80% of the time. Whether he will fold often enough to warrant the check-raise strategy, I'm not as confident. And he would need to fold to the flop check-raise because if he doesn't, I'm getting out of the hand. My reasoning is that at that point I do think he has Q, pocket pair, or 4.

I know another option is to check-raise and then call down, but I'm not sure I see why that is a better option than simply taking one shot at winning on the flop via a check-raise and then getting out once your "question is answered" by the Villain (question being, "Do you have Q, 4 or pocket pair?")

[Shillx]

Why is everyone caught up in raising? Here are my thoughts...

1) He isn't folding much if anything on this board. Any pair is showing down as is any ace. The only hands he might toss in on the turn are things like JTs.

2) Our pot equity here sucks (maybe around 33%). We have exactly zero fold equity on the check/raise and minimal fold equity on a turn bet.

3) We will oftentimes get 3-bet by a worse hand and that makes things very tough for us. There is just too great of a chance for us to be FOS on this board when we check/raise an unprotected pot. SOP here would be to value 3-bet (or raise turn) with hands like AK/AJ (let alone any bigger pair).

4) The guy looks to be aggressive and will hopefully keep betting no matter what he has. When a thinking player calls on a Q44r board it should set off alarms (either that they have something or are setting up a bluff later in the hand), but most people will keep hammering away with big unpaired cards. I don't expect AK to slow down here.

[Fryguy]

I totally agree, when I saw this hand, I definetely saw it as a raise or fold situation. One of a few things happens here if we raise:

1. He folds right there, good for us
2. He checks the turn to us, in which case we bet and fold to a raise.
3. We get either 3-bet or stop-n-go'd, in which case we fold (optionally call a flop 3-bet and fold turn ui)

[ QUOTE ]
i'd raise this flop and bet the turn. he raises a bunch preflop and ace high hands look good on this flop, so it wouldn't surprise me at all that he'd bet here 4-handed AK/AJ/ATs/KJs/KTs. do you really think he'd not bet unimproved on the flop?

the great thing too is he may wind up folding 88-JJ either to the flop raise or to the turn bet. i can't see why everyone is saying this is an auto-fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

[lautzutao]

Is it always correct to call/raise a low PP on a paired board HU? If there had been a call would this change our play?

How tight a range do we need to define the PFR for calling to be -EV(if ever) HU?

What range of hands would we need to put villian on to consider a raise(in your opinion) HU?

[emitch]

Grunching

I would probably fold this preflop. A few months ago I would have called this too, but I am quickly learning that unless the table is very loose and very passive, you will get raised too often in this position to be making this call. You see that when you got a raise in the next few seats, not many came along. This is bad for your set value.

Without a read, i fold. If you have a good read and this player is known to always bet missed overcards and will slow down under agression and then you could pop it now and see what happens (betting for information which is usually bad, but with the right read?). Also this pot is only going to be ~5BB if you call and is probably not worth the next two you are going to have to pay. You missed your set, fold and move on.

mitch

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
1) He isn't folding much if anything on this board. Any pair is showing down as is any ace. The only hands he might toss in on the turn are things like JTs.

[/ QUOTE ]
i disagree that any ace is calling down, and i also think he will fold a pair some nonzero % of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
2) We have exactly zero fold equity on the check/raise and minimal fold equity on a turn bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
i don't see how we have zero fold equity and how this player is going to commit on the flop that he will showdown ATo, for example.

[ QUOTE ]
3) We will oftentimes get 3-bet by a worse hand and that makes things very tough for us. There is just too great of a chance for us to be FOS on this board when we check/raise an unprotected pot. SOP here would be to value 3-bet (or raise turn) with hands like AK/AJ.

[/ QUOTE ]
"oftentimes" get 3-bet by a worse hand? looks to me like this guy is playing a really tight preflop game so he can play a boring postflop game. one where "value 3-betting" ace high on a paired board is far from SOP. i can't see how this guy is ever going to have the balls to call our check raise and raise the turn with ace high, unless he happens to turns the nut flush draw with AKs.


edit: i wanted to add that i think calling the flop is the play if we don't raise. i don't understand how we can fold.