Aks 3 handed 2 all-ins, hero's action???

[theordinaryboy]

Interesting situation i found myself in here, i'm sure someone with better math skils could explain what the correct move was here, lets i hope i got it right.

$100 tourney

blinds 400/800 (go up every 7 mins)

Player 1 5775
Player 2 4495
Hero 4730

player 2 posts 400
hero posts 800

player 1 goes all-in
player 2 calls all-in
hero is dealt ah kh

call or fold???

player 1 has been quite aggressive player 2 has played slightly tighter but since the blinds went to 400/800 everyone has loosened up somewhat.

Any thoughts on hand ranges for player 1 and player 2??

[theordinaryboy]

come on guys this is surely an interesting post,

a thing to remember is that if player 1 wins hero still takes second.

[SCfuji]

if you fold lets say you get first 50% and 2nd 50% so thats worth 25 + 15 or 40

if you call lets say you get first 35% and 3rd 65% so thats worth 17.5 + 13 or 30.5

im rounding heavily but it seems a fold is in order even if you factor in a tiny bit of 3rd into the first scenario.

[darkcore]

fold. my calling-range here ends at KK.

[BradleyT]

How do you get 1st 50% of the time with 33% of the chips?

[nuclear500]

This is the same kind of scenario, sort of, that Gazes was faced with in that one WSOP episode. He had AKs as well facing two all-in's. If he won, he was nearly assured the braclet, if he lost he was basically done.

At absolute worst you triple up Player 2, you have him covered so even if you can't beat Player1 and do beat player2, you take 2nd.

If you win, you are nearly assured the 1st place prize unless you somehow horrible screw up the incredible 10+:1 chip lead.

I call. They're going to have to show me AA or KK. More likely 88 - JJ, A9-AJ.

[SCfuji]

well if you are like me and stanzee you will win more heads up matches even with a 2:1 chip deficit.

either that or im dumb cuz this is my first math post of the day.

[ QUOTE ]
I call. They're going to have to show me AA or KK. More likely 88 - JJ, A9-AJ.

[/ QUOTE ]If you're up against 8c8d and AcTs, you're only about 37% to win the hand.

Before the hand, you had about a 1/3 stake in the prize pool. If you push, you will take half the prize pool about 37% of the time, assuming the rest of the time you split evenly between 2nd and 3rd, you're basically right back to your 1/3 stake in the prize pool, maybe you've improved a couple %.

If you get out of the way, let's assume the loser of this pot finishes 3rd and you go heads up against a stack that is a little more than twice yours. You're sure to get at least 30% of the prize pool. Assuming you're a 70/30 underdog heads-up, your share of the prize pool will be 36%.

I think SNGPT says the small stack wins 30% of the time with these chip counts.

All seems pretty much like a toss up to me. But, I'd like to think I'm better than average heads up, so that I'll win a bit more than 30% of the time, so I'll probably get out of the way.

Then again, the first guy all-in doesn't have to have a mid-pocket pair or AJ, AT, A9 -- his effective push range should be wider than that. Player 2, though he has loosened up a bit, probably still has a pretty tight calling range here. I still think it's a toss-up (given these approximate hand ranges).

[valenzuela]

youre joking right?? My chips are soooooo on the middle.
edit: Im looser than AK, I think I call A7+ if Im playing good players.

If you had 300 less chips, this is an easy fold. In this spot, I think it's an easy call.

I think you fold here. Regardless of who wins the all-in you are pretty much assuring yourself at least 2nd, with a reasonable chance to push for first (chip count will be 2-1, hardly a terrible prospect). I think this is one of the rare times to just fold your way into a better position

[valenzuela]

Ok let get over with this thread.
NOT EVEN STANZEE IS FOLDING HERE, OK???? NEVER EVER FOLD AK ITM ON A PARTY SNG OMFG , 20% YOUR STACK IS ALREADY ON THE POT...OMG!!! JUST CALL!!!!!!!!.}
Thanks, I apologize all the shouting.

[pokerlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok let get over with this thread.
NOT EVEN STANZEE IS FOLDING HERE, OK???? NEVER EVER FOLD AK ITM ON A PARTY SNG OMFG , 20% YOUR STACK IS ALREADY ON THE POT...OMG!!! JUST CALL!!!!!!!!.}
Thanks, I apologize all the shouting.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, what he said/yelled.

[theordinaryboy]

interesting.

i like noah's post best, i think if i was the smallest stack there i would have folded.

However i called

player 1 showed At player 2 99

a T hit on the turn and i came in second.

with blinds that big im not sure how much of an edge i would have had heads up, if im even the best player there.

But i agree it is a close one.

[RobGW]

Thats what makes this an easy call. If the folders think they can outplay their opponents with these blinds, I think they are sadly mistaken. They are the ones being outplayed by folding too much.

[valenzuela]

<<<<<< hitting head on computer, youre conclusion is sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo oooooooooooooooooooooooooo wrong. Look ,do whatever you want.

[theordinaryboy]

what part/parts of the conclusion were wrong valuenzuela???

i see that this is an easy call for you, as you believe their ranges to be very loose, is that correct?

by the way this was not a party sit n go it was on ladbrokes.

[valenzuela]

[ QUOTE ]
what part/parts of the conclusion were wrong valuenzuela???

i see that this is an easy call for you, as you believe their ranges to be very loose, is that correct?

by the way this was not a party sit n go it was on ladbrokes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ill imagine each time we call we win 33% of the time, which is an understatement( i think more like 40%)..ok now look at the pot odds....yeah thats right.

[theordinaryboy]

i'm not sure you should always use pot odds as gospel.

if say our stack was 400 less then,

lets say 40% of the time we do win the 3 way all-in

(0.4 x 500) + (0.6 x 200) = 200 + 120 = 320

but if we fold then we get

(0.25 x 500) + (0.75 x 300) = 125 + 225 = 350

so surely if we were the shortest stack it would be correct to fold, no?

[valenzuela]

Here is my math:
Blinds are 400/800
Stacks are:
5800
5000
4200

So if we fold we have -800.
If we call we win 33% of the time we have 0.
two things:
ure winning more than 33% of the time.
playing for second on a sng is not worth it unless u have a microscopic stack( its impossible to fold AKs profitably which such high blinds)