55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?

[Karak567]

No reads, comments?

NL Texas Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:16624923 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Sunday, October 16, 01:34:37 EDT 2005
Table Table 67465 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: Trumped_AA ( $930 )
Seat 2: bigb23 ( $1790 )
Seat 3: markoshark ( $1245 )
Seat 4: Abercorn111 ( $955 )
Seat 5: fractals ( $1205 )
Seat 6: Kazman047 ( $920 )
Seat 8: hero ( $955 )
Seat 9: barit50 ( $1155 )
Seat 10: MTWalker ( $845 )
Trny:16624923 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to hero [ 3d Kh ]
barit50 folds.
MTWalker folds.
Trumped_AA folds.
bigb23 calls [15].
markoshark folds.
Abercorn111 calls [15].
fractals folds.
Kazman047 calls [5].
hero checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kd, 5s, 3c ]
Kazman047 checks.
hero bets [50].
bigb23 raises [200].
Abercorn111 raises [600].
Kazman047 folds.
hero is all-In [890]

[ace_in_the_hole]

I play it the same, my feeling is that if someone has a set or better 2 pair, so be it.

[ferb]

smells like trouble.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
smells like trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to be getting allin here, and it really isn't that tough of a decision. Think about their ranges, blah blah blah... you're fine here.

[bennies]

What is Abercorns range here? AK and AA would probably have raised preflop. So what do we beat? KQ? Maybe KT-KJ? An OESD overagressively played? That is about it.

Hero might be good here but it's wrong to say it isn't a close decision.

[psyduck]

unless you have the specific read that either of them are set-peddlers this early in the game (i.e. they're playing 8 tables or something) I don't mind this. AK also raises PF.

However, the extremely dry flop, and the action with two people raising is pretty crazy. I might drop this with reads. If I see either of them on 3 or more tables, I turbo-muck

[psyduck]

[ QUOTE ]
it really isn't that tough of a decision

[/ QUOTE ]

look at how dry that flop is. can you really give both guys KT/KJ/KQ, assuming AK always raises PF?

If I had a set, your T50 bet would scare me. I might raise it up to T200 thinkin you were on the OESD. Then, you've got a big raiser behind. Is he bluff-raising? Does he have KQ, KJ, or AK? At least one of those hands would prolly raise from CO.

I'm letting this big-blind special go unless you know abercorn is a donk.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it really isn't that tough of a decision

[/ QUOTE ]

look at how dry that flop is. can you really give both guys KT/KJ/KQ, assuming AK always raises PF?

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is that your argument goes both ways. You can't give him KK, and K5 and K3 are both unlikely given the action and probability. So we're left with 55 and 33, and two 3's are out. There are very few hands that beat you. Plus people are donks. They could easily have like 77 and KT respectively; obviously I'm using an extreme example to help my case, but you get the point. So little beats you here, there's no reason anyone would think you're that strong (note would, not should), and their range is bigger than people make it out to be.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
I turbo-muck

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess you're trying to make a point, but no f'ing way. You put him on 55?

[ QUOTE ]
The problem is that your argument goes both ways. You can't give him KK, and K5 and K3 are both unlikely given the action and probability. So we're left with 55 and 33, and two 3's are out. There are very few hands that beat you. Plus people are donks. They could easily have like 77 and KT respectively; obviously I'm using an extreme example to help my case, but you get the point. So little beats you here, there's no reason anyone would think you're that strong (note would, not should), and their range is bigger than people make it out to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems like donks in the $55s tend to make themselves known preflop as opposed to postflop. It's tough to stay with this hand postflop with a big raise and then a big re-raiser.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The problem is that your argument goes both ways. You can't give him KK, and K5 and K3 are both unlikely given the action and probability. So we're left with 55 and 33, and two 3's are out. There are very few hands that beat you. Plus people are donks. They could easily have like 77 and KT respectively; obviously I'm using an extreme example to help my case, but you get the point. So little beats you here, there's no reason anyone would think you're that strong (note would, not should), and their range is bigger than people make it out to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems like donks in the $55s tend to make themselves known preflop as opposed to postflop. It's tough to stay with this hand postflop with a big raise and then a big re-raiser.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with your first statement at all. I don't really know why you'd say that. Raises aren't big either, both are smaller than the pot. All I'm saying is give me a range for the raisers, not a range that they don't have. The range you'll come up with is so small that you'd have to be right a ridiculous amount of the time to make this a fold, which I don't think you will be considering the donkalicious [censored] that goes down, and legitimate hand combos you beat given the action.

[ QUOTE ]
Raises aren't big either, both are smaller than the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

What? Are we talking about the same hand here? I count a 200 raise into a 110 pot and then a 600 re-raise after that. What are you seing?

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raises aren't big either, both are smaller than the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

What? Are we talking about the same hand here? I count a 200 raise into a 110 pot and then a 600 re-raise after that. What are you seing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sigh... this just sucks... come on man, take five seconds to think about this... (hint: calls are in the pot when calculating raises)... everytime a thread gets going it gets stalled by someone who doesn't get pot odds or some other mundane concept... too bad...

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raises aren't big either, both are smaller than the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

What? Are we talking about the same hand here? I count a 200 raise into a 110 pot and then a 600 re-raise after that. What are you seing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sigh... this just sucks... come on man, take five seconds to think about this... (hint: calls are in the pot when calculating raises)... everytime a thread gets going it gets stalled by someone who doesn't get pot odds or some other mundane concept... too bad...

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you serious?

[bigt439]

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Raises aren't big either, both are smaller than the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

What? Are we talking about the same hand here? I count a 200 raise into a 110 pot and then a 600 re-raise after that. What are you seing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sigh... this just sucks... come on man, take five seconds to think about this... (hint: calls are in the pot when calculating raises)... everytime a thread gets going it gets stalled by someone who doesn't get pot odds or some other mundane concept... too bad...

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you serious?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just try raising the pot in a pot limit game...

[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]


Raises aren't big either, both are smaller than the pot.


[/ QUOTE ]

What? Are we talking about the same hand here? I count a 200 raise into a 110 pot and then a 600 re-raise after that. What are you seing?


[/ QUOTE ]

Sigh... this just sucks... come on man, take five seconds to think about this... (hint: calls are in the pot when calculating raises)... everytime a thread gets going it gets stalled by someone who doesn't get pot odds or some other mundane concept... too bad...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm confused then. How much is in the pot after this:

"Abercorn111 raises [600]."

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
Raises aren't big either, both are smaller than the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

What? Are we talking about the same hand here? I count a 200 raise into a 110 pot and then a 600 re-raise after that. What are you seing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sigh... this just sucks... come on man, take five seconds to think about this... (hint: calls are in the pot when calculating raises)... everytime a thread gets going it gets stalled by someone who doesn't get pot odds or some other mundane concept... too bad...

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you serious?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just try raising the pot in a pot limit game...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just asking you to read the original post

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just asking you to read the original post

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's too busy trying to slam me to read anything. That's what is cool about this site though. Everyone is a genius.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
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Raises aren't big either, both are smaller than the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

What? Are we talking about the same hand here? I count a 200 raise into a 110 pot and then a 600 re-raise after that. What are you seing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sigh... this just sucks... come on man, take five seconds to think about this... (hint: calls are in the pot when calculating raises)... everytime a thread gets going it gets stalled by someone who doesn't get pot odds or some other mundane concept... too bad...

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you serious?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just try raising the pot in a pot limit game...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just asking you to read the original post

[/ QUOTE ]

Sucks I have to write this out. 4 limps pf, the pot is t60. Hero bets out t50, first dude raises to 200... he first calls the bet, making the pot 160 and raises 150 more... < pot... the pot is now t310 and second dude calls the 200 making the pot t510 and raises 400 more... < pot...

Yeah, I'm just trying to slam you... that's why I wrote this all out... what a burn...

Disclaimer: If this is somehow wrong, I'm drunk, it's my birthday, and I'm wearing a Scorpion costume (ya know from Mortal Kombat)... but this is right...

[ QUOTE ]
I'm wearing a Scorpion costume (ya know from Mortal Kombat)

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, that's pretty cool /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm wearing a Scorpion costume (ya know from Mortal Kombat)

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, that's pretty cool /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha, yeah, wow, that sucked without context. Kickass costume party earlier...

[ QUOTE ]
the pot is now t310 and second dude calls the 200 making the pot t510 and raises 400 more... < pot...


[/ QUOTE ]

OK. Difference in terminology. I would just say that the third guy bet 600 into a 310 pot. Anyways, those are still big bets, especially when hero only has T955.

I stand by my original post. Nobody ever posts these things when they win.

[inyaface]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm wearing a Scorpion costume (ya know from Mortal Kombat)... but this is right...

[/ QUOTE ]

My advice om this hand is FINISH HIM!
(poosh)

[SCfuji]

looks like a fold to me

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
looks like a fold to me

[/ QUOTE ]

I couldn't agree more.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
looks like a fold to me

[/ QUOTE ]


AHHHHHHHHHHH. Someone give them a hand. Are we seriously putting one of them on 55?

EDIT: To be a bit clearer, I understand the range of hands we beat here is small, but the range of hands that beat us is even smaller. There is just a small range of hands that do this on that board period, but we beat our fair share of them.

[MegaBet]

We are up against a raise and a re-raise. With only 1 other player I'd probably call and hope they don't have trips, but with 2 players giving action this is very VERY dangerous.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
We are up against a raise and a re-raise. With only 1 other player I'd probably call and hope they don't have trips, but with 2 players giving action this is very VERY dangerous.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand what you're saying. Your point is correct from that perspective. But it's deeper than that. Think about hand ranges. You are essentially putting someone squarely on 55 here. There are so many other combinations you can legitimately make for two hands that you beat.

[microbet]

It is dangerous and there is probably a 50% chance or more you bust, but if you win, you triple up. It is very easy for either or both of them to have a King with a decent kicker and the fact that seals the deal is people like to limp AA preflop.

Edit: Besides, either of them are likely to want to call the flop with trips to get overcalls.

Edit again: Also, I see people doing crazy things like going broke with A4 here all the time.

[mlagoo]

looks like a call, just based on the number of hand combinations they could have that beat you (as opposed to the hands you are beating).

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
It is dangerous and there is probably a 50% chance or more you bust, but if you win, you triple up. It is every easy for either or both of them to have a King with a decent kicker and the fact that seals the deal is people like to limp AA preflop.

Edit: Besides, either of them are likely to want to call the flop with trips to get overcalls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some shaky logic there, but right idea. First of all we don't triple up because the guy in the middle doesn't call very often. We can triple up, but not definitely. The 50% bust figure is obviously just a guesstimate, but I think it's a bit high. The K with any kicker point is essentially what my argument hinges on, and while the aa one is a valid one, I think it's a fairly small factor in this hand. Your edit is a very nice point for the second raiser, less so for the first raiser because he may want to build a pot, but great point.

[microbet]

Yeah, not necessarily tripling, but often a guy who raised to 200 will go for it.

As far as 50%, yeah, just a wild guess, and I think it's still +$EV regardless of what the guy who raised to 200 does.

Maybe in a $215 there aren't enough crazy people around to make this call, but at $55 I see crazy people every game.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody ever posts these things when they win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe he was ahead and got sucked out on.

[mlagoo]

heres a crack at hand ranges and your equity:

I just don't see AK being limped in this situation, so I didn't enter it in this one:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

440,664 games 0.140 secs 3,147,599 games/sec

Board: Kd 5s 3c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 37.6651 % 37.41% 00.25% { Kh3d }
Hand 2: 22.6430 % 21.71% 00.94% { KK+, 55, 33, KTs+, KTo+ }
Hand 3: 39.6918 % 38.83% 00.86% { KK+, 55, 33, KQs, KQo }

--------

If we add AK, we look even better:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

679,056 games 0.188 secs 3,612,000 games/sec

Board: Kd 5s 3c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 41.3504 % 41.13% 00.22% { Kh3d }
Hand 2: 23.0366 % 21.90% 01.14% { KK+, 55, 33, AKs, KTs+, AKo, KTo+ }
Hand 3: 35.6129 % 34.52% 01.09% { KK+, 55, 33, AKs, KQs, AKo, KQo }

------------

Here is one having taken KQ out of Abercorn's hand range:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

498,456 games 0.125 secs 3,987,648 games/sec

Board: Kd 5s 3c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 37.7365 % 37.57% 00.17% { Kh3d }
Hand 2: 19.5652 % 18.64% 00.93% { KK+, 55, 33, AKs, KTs+, AKo, KTo+ }
Hand 3: 42.6983 % 41.87% 00.83% { KK+, 55, 33, AKs, AKo }

-------------

Am I missing any hands from these ranges, bearing in mind it's a 55 (read: I don't think we see K5 or A5 or something similarly silly here).

Anyway, it sure seems like a call. Of course, if you can definitely take KQ out of Abercorn's range, it's a lot closer.

[microbet]

You can't just add in odd hands like A5 or A4 or A3 or 99 or JJ or just a complete bluff by either player with anything, because they won't be seen as often as legit or semi-legit hands, but you certainly see them sometimes in a $55.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't just add in odd hands like A5 or A4 or A3 or 99 or JJ or just a complete bluff by either player with anything, because they won't be seen as often as legit or semi-legit hands, but you certainly see them sometimes in a $55.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well then maybe it would just be worth adding like a Dan Harrington 10% bluff factor in there, which makes it a call (not an "obvious" one, but I still think it's a call).

[microbet]

I'm bumping this because I think there are some solid $55ers on either side of this and maybe someone will change their mind and maybe some new blood will offer opinions.

[SCfuji]

hey bigt

with the two players showing strength i dont feel comfortable putting in anymore hands than i must. to start, my hand is very vulnerable and so if im ahead i dont think im very far ahead; however, if im behind, im very far behind.

fuji

[SCfuji]

im not a 55er but im trying hard to think of what i would really do here. vs unknowns and no reads im still folding.

[microbet]

If you're ahead, you're pretty far ahead. If it's AK or something like that, villian only has 3 outs. I guess if he has 46 you aren't THAT far ahead.

[SCfuji]

i guess what im trying to say is that when they are ahead they are more ahead than how far ahead hero would be if he were ahead...... lol what an effed up sentence.

[microbet]

Yeah, but... the most common case for them being ahead will have you with 4 outs and the most common case for you being ahead will have them with 3 outs. Except for the very unlikely OESD pretty much no two hands are close to each other at all.

[SCfuji]

i must not be taking into account all the situations. /images/graemlins/frown.gif thx for the clarification.

[Karak567]

Very interesting replies so far, I am going to stay on the sidelines as I feel my comments will be biased based on results.

And to answer what someone said, I post hands like this whether I win them or not.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
hey bigt

with the two players showing strength i dont feel comfortable putting in anymore hands than i must. to start, my hand is very vulnerable and so if im ahead i dont think im very far ahead; however, if im behind, im very far behind.

fuji

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah microbet touched on it, but this makes no sense. OESD is very rare.

[Kristian]

Only very recently moved to 55s from 33s, but I am pushing this hand also. Like it has been said, I see too many donks throwing money away to fold this hand.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're ahead, you're pretty far ahead. If it's AK or something like that, villian only has 3 outs. I guess if he has 46 you aren't THAT far ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

villain has >3 outs with AK.

c

[gp?]

i fold after the two raises. i dont think its worth playing for your stack with kings up in an unraised pot.

[citanul]

with no reads i fold this pretty quickly i think. my read would be that you likely have one of them beat and the other not. that's mostly going with the idea that the 3rd guy raised almost all in but not quite, on this board, as a 3 bet. i'm likely to put the original raiser on a K hand, but the other guy, while he sometimes is going to be on a draw here, isn't often, even at the 55s, as donkey as they are. bigb has a stack and all and could even be raising with a draw, but he could even reasonably have limped Kxs and hit 2 pair, or very very easilly either of them could have a set already. i'm not loving this spot at all and just giving up, though i've fold here only to be sorry about it when the hands get shown down only probably about 30-40% of the time, v the 60-70% of the time i'm very happy with my fold. there's probably some easy math to be done with those numbers i threw up there, but i'm not doing it right now.

c

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
i fold after the two raises.

[/ QUOTE ]

while i'm in agreement in general about that (proviso, that i'm at at least the 55s),

[ QUOTE ]
i dont think its worth playing for your stack with kings up in an unraised pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's cruddy reasoning, and you know it.

c

[gp?]

[ QUOTE ]

that's cruddy reasoning, and you know it.

c

[/ QUOTE ]
damn!

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]
Seat 8: hero ( $955 )
Blinds(10/15)
Dealt to hero [ 3d Kh ]
hero checks...
hero is all-In [890]

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't remember the CardPlayer columnist who wrote that an extraordinary amount of questions he gets about bad beats, tough decisions or what have you starts out the same:

"I was in the BB with.... "

It's funny, I've kept that in the back of mind recently while reading the forum and during my play and it's pretty forthright.

[microbet]

OOPS. 3 5's (not counting runner runner)

[johnnybeef]

Call me weak tight, but I think that you either beat, or are very close far too often to make calling this bet profitable.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
OOPS. 3 5's (not counting runner runner)

[/ QUOTE ]

jah. people forget that sometimes.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're ahead, you're pretty far ahead. If it's AK or something like that, villian only has 3 outs. I guess if he has 46 you aren't THAT far ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

you forgot the three 5s and the runner runner possibility. top and bottom pair is a very vulnerable hand.

I would fold. Their most likely holdings are AK/KQ/AA, and if you ran into a set that's too bad. 55/KK are the only likely hands to beat you. That being said, it's a close decision. Early in the tournament, I'd fold this.

Another problem with calling here is that the hands that beat you really got you crushed while the hands that are losing to you can suck out.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold. Their most likely holdings are AK/KQ/AA, and if you ran into a set that's too bad. 55/KK are the only likely hands to beat you. That being said, it's a close decision. Early in the tournament, I'd fold this.

Another problem with calling here is that the hands that beat you really got you crushed while the hands that are losing to you can suck out.

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf.

if you put them on a range of hands and you're willing to say they are both massively likely on AK, KQ, AA, then you can't also say you fold all the time.

c

[bigt439]

citanul,

While I do agree that the action is rather ugly and you say that the second raiser likely has you beat, what are you saying he has us beat with? K5 is fairly unlikely as a limp, although I've seen it happen, but I think he rarely has this. There is only one combo of 33 so we can almost ignore that. KK makes almost no sense being limped from his position pf. So we're really only leaving 55. I know I've said this a couple times in the post, but people are not responding to it and instead are just saying we're beat. We're basically only beat by 55 of which there are only 6 combinations. I can think of several more hands that raise there than just 55, especially at the donk filled $55.

Like I said, the action doesn't go like this that often, but when it does, we're beat significantly less than we beat them IMO.

Can someone please address the fact that there is really only one real hand that beats us and a couple outside possibilities. When you combine this with the dead money it seems like a call. While the initial raiser should worry us a bit he has an equally small range of hands that beat us and this range is much smaller relative to his entire hand range given his action than it is for the second player.

The point about being less ahead of them than they would be of us is a valid one, but has been exaggerated a bit in this post. I agree though, we are at around 10% when beat and they are at around 30% so it is definitely relevant.

I just think we're ahead enough of the time becuase so few hands beat us, that given the dead money it outweighs the player to act behind us and the equity disadvantage we have when we're ahead vs. behind.

I wouldn't know about party, but if this happened in $55 Stars I would fold every single time. It's just not super likely to be ahead here. Early in tournament with no reads, you have to basically generalize how everyone plays. At Stars, I would say it's about 60/40 in your favor. That's not enough for me to shove my chips in when if I'm ahead, I'm about 7.5:2.5 while if I'm behind, I'm really toast. It's way close, and as such I am folding because I'm sure there will be better opportunities in the future.

As a side note, I would call every single time at $33s or lower.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
While I do agree that the action is rather ugly and you say that the second raiser likely has you beat, what are you saying he has us beat with? K5 is fairly unlikely as a limp, although I've seen it happen, but I think he rarely has this. There is only one combo of 33 so we can almost ignore that. KK makes almost no sense being limped from his position pf. So we're really only leaving 55. I know I've said this a couple times in the post, but people are not responding to it and instead are just saying we're beat. We're basically only beat by 55 of which there are only 6 combinations. I can think of several more hands that raise there than just 55, especially at the donk filled $55.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're thinking about this a little bit wrong. If your opponent is not a total donkey postflop, you are beat, period, so the question is not about combos at all. It is 'what are the chances that this guy, who puts in a third, pot committing raise on a K53r flop, knows something about poker?' and I would say the answer in a 55 is 'high enough to fold'.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
While I do agree that the action is rather ugly and you say that the second raiser likely has you beat, what are you saying he has us beat with? K5 is fairly unlikely as a limp, although I've seen it happen, but I think he rarely has this. There is only one combo of 33 so we can almost ignore that. KK makes almost no sense being limped from his position pf. So we're really only leaving 55. I know I've said this a couple times in the post, but people are not responding to it and instead are just saying we're beat. We're basically only beat by 55 of which there are only 6 combinations. I can think of several more hands that raise there than just 55, especially at the donk filled $55.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're thinking about this a little bit wrong. If your opponent is not a total donkey postflop, you are beat, period, so the question is not about combos at all. It is 'what are the chances that this guy, who puts in a third, pot committing raise on a K53r flop, knows something about poker?' and I would say the answer in a 55 is 'high enough to fold'.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough. I'm not saying I'm definitively correct or anything, I'm just trying to generate a discussion people seem to be skirting around. I don't think it's that I'm thinking about it the wrong way (and I'd admit it if I was), but the unlikeliness of being beat in this hand in terms of hand probabilities is directly relevant to the 'what are the chances that this guy, who puts in a third, pot committing raise on a K53r flop, knows something about poker?' question, because weighing the two against each other is how you get your answer. Now your opinion is that it is not high enough and I completley respect that. I think that given the dead money it is high enough because I have seen moves like this, with a good K quite a bit in the $55's. I really don't respect the play there very much, for no other reason than I don't perceive the level of play to be very high.

Another point discussed earlier that was introduced by somebody else is that if this guy really was the semi-decent player we are giving him credit for being would he not smooth call with a set here? I wouldn't raise because no one is drawing and you have amazing position to extract the maximum by smooth calling here. Granted this point is a little iffy because I could see good players pushing here (and K5 should push here for sure), but it is relevant I think.

But this is the type of discussion I'm trying to get going.

[pineapple888]

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While I do agree that the action is rather ugly and you say that the second raiser likely has you beat, what are you saying he has us beat with? K5 is fairly unlikely as a limp, although I've seen it happen, but I think he rarely has this. There is only one combo of 33 so we can almost ignore that. KK makes almost no sense being limped from his position pf. So we're really only leaving 55. I know I've said this a couple times in the post, but people are not responding to it and instead are just saying we're beat. We're basically only beat by 55 of which there are only 6 combinations. I can think of several more hands that raise there than just 55, especially at the donk filled $55.

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You're thinking about this a little bit wrong. If your opponent is not a total donkey postflop, you are beat, period, so the question is not about combos at all. It is 'what are the chances that this guy, who puts in a third, pot committing raise on a K53r flop, knows something about poker?' and I would say the answer in a 55 is 'high enough to fold'.

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Fair enough. I'm not saying I'm definitively correct or anything, I'm just trying to generate a discussion people seem to be skirting around. I don't think it's that I'm thinking about it the wrong way (and I'd admit it if I was), but the unlikeliness of being beat in this hand in terms of hand probabilities is directly relevant to the 'what are the chances that this guy, who puts in a third, pot committing raise on a K53r flop, knows something about poker?' question, because weighing the two against each other is how you get your answer. Now your opinion is that it is not high enough and I completley respect that. I think that given the dead money it is high enough because I have seen moves like this, with a good K quite a bit in the $55's. I really don't respect the play there very much, for no other reason than I don't perceive the level of play to be very high.

Another point discussed earlier that was introduced by somebody else is that if this guy really was the semi-decent player we are giving him credit for being would he not smooth call with a set here? I wouldn't raise because no one is drawing and you have amazing position to extract the maximum by smooth calling here. Granted this point is a little iffy because I could see good players pushing here (and K5 should push here for sure), but it is relevant I think.

But this is the type of discussion I'm trying to get going.

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"The hand that can beat you, will beat you."

As a silly but illustrative example, what are the chances somebody has AA when you have KK? I mean, those hands only come up once every 221 hands, right?

But I see this almost every session (multitabling).

You can't ignore 33. You can't discount 55 as much as you seem to be.

You have to put your opponent on a range, and make the decision based on that range. If your opponent's range is [55,33], you should fold. I'm not saying that *is* the range, I'm saying that's the thought process.

[bigt439]

I understand what you're trying to say, but what I'm saying is that there are hands that you beat that are a part of his range. If you want to simplify it, he holds a hand that beats you x% of the time, and a hand that you beat y% of the time. It is relevant to establish the frequency with which hands in the 'hands that beat you' category are actually held by your opponent and comparing this likelihood against the chance your ahead. It is relevant to eliminate or severely narrow down the frequnecy for hands like 33 or K5 because these make up part of the 'hands you beat category', decreasing x and therefore increasing y because x + y = 1 (or 100%). The algebra is not complicated and may come off as fancy, but I thought it to be the easiest way to explain.

But you are right in that if you decide he holds 55 say 75% of the time, add a couple other percentage points in for outside shots, making x = 80% or something and that leaves you with y = 20%, then yeah you go with your read and fold. I'm trying to say that I think x and y are close enough that you should push (keeping in mind we have to factor in the dead money, chance of second dude calling, and equity when we're all-in, which I'm not going to do and am estimating).

wouldn't it be 6.5 5's pairing giving him k's and 5's with A kick agains k's and 5's with 3 kick... ?

[ezmogee]

I normally have a hard time folding top and bottom on the flop, but considering the way this hand sets up, i have a hard time seeing where youre ahead. The range of hands youre beating is AK and KQ, and 53. There's no flush draw to be pushing with.

I think I fold.

[bawcerelli]

I play weak tight, so I'm glad others here would also fold this too.

[Pudge714]

I agree with BigT you will see KT+ a lot more than most people have been giving credit for. You are only losing to 33,55,KK, and K5. Three of those hands are unlikely for reasons previously discussed.

Also what is the $EV of this call. Either if the middle player calls or folds. Obviously it depends on the OP's big stack play, but just a thought.

Actually now that I think about it I don't think the middle stack is calling you are probably beat. Unless he has a limped, and poorly played AK.