AK hand in 50+5 (cruise step2)

[chim17]

Not many hands in.. so no real good read on anyone. I checked the river to induce a bluff, not out of fear. Anyone like this line? Any other comments on other streets?

Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 2: mbr1121 ( $885 )
Seat 4: LotsOfOuts69 ( $975 )
Seat 5: blackandblue ( $1535 )
Seat 7: Pokergal39 ( $650 )
Seat 8: Gitarmn ( $1460 )
Seat 9: chim17 ( $1020 )
Seat 10: ziggie123 ( $740 )
Seat 3: chezangi ( $1155 )
Seat 1: ndttech ( $265 )
Seat 6: inthehole25 ( $1315 )
Trny:16617439 Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to chim17 [ Kh As ]
chim17 raises [90].
mbr1121 calls [90].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kd, 5c, Jh ]
chim17 bets [100].
mbr1121 calls [100].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 2d ]
chim17 bets [225].
mbr1121 calls [225].
** Dealing River ** [ 9s ]
chim17 checks...

[bluefeet]

I like it, but I'd prefer a small lead on the river - maybe t150'ish. You WILL get paid by the weaker K holder or mid-PP (maybe even the J haven't not been convinced yet that you simply missed your A-something). Similarly, an opponent is just as apt (if not more so) to jump on your non-continued aggression from earlier streets - especially true for the KQ guy and/or a donk having gotten to deep chasing a straight draw of some sorts.

[chim17]

I have a question with betting out something like 150. It seems it'll work more like a blocking bet, and I will likely get called. However, it seems very likely if I induce a bet it will be larger than 150. I find the odds of me being raised by a worse hand as almost zero. Isn't it possible I gain more chips by inducing a bet more often?

[bluefeet]

I agree - sort of. The key thing is realizing that neither line is likely to induce a bluff. The fact of the matter is, I won't more chips in the vast majority of the time you simply get called. If we only get raised 10% of the time we check, and for the sake of arguement 5% of the time we show some degree of weakness in our lead...I'll still take the 90%+ of the time we get more chips out of him - with the added benefit of him possibly raising.

Had a flush draw been a possibility on the flop - with him still chasing on the turn, then a check on a "missed" river might be a better option. But with him calling your PF raise, calling your flop lead, it looks more like a K/PP. With you not slowing down on the turn, we can bet he'll gladly accept a check on the river...thus the value bet (though a tad smaller for your "induce a bluff" line).

[chim17]

If you think the odds of incucing are so low isn't it better to come out for a bit more chips? Like one last desperation? I think we'll still likely get called by a K, and possibly a pocket pair(they did call this far)