View Full Version : Can I bet this river? $200 6max
Sponger15SB
10-15-2005, 06:26 PM
I've got $195, Villiam has $150.
LAG idiot raises UTG to $7, I call with AQo, folded to Villian in the BB who calls.
Villian is 42/5 after 50 hands.
Flop is T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Villian checks, LAG idiot checks, I bet $15, Villian calls, LAG folds.
Turn is a 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Villian bets $20 into a $50 pot and I call.
River is a 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Villian checks and Hero is confused on what to do...
mason55
10-15-2005, 06:36 PM
Are either of your cards hearts? That's kind of important in this hand.
[ QUOTE ]
I've got $195, Villiam has $150.
LAG idiot raises UTG to $7, I call with AQo, folded to Villian in the BB who calls.
Villian is 42/5 after 50 hands.
Flop is T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Villian checks, LAG idiot checks, I bet $15, Villian calls, LAG folds.
Turn is a 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Villian bets $20 into a $50 pot and I call.
River is a 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Villian checks and Hero is confused on what to do...
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I don't know. I probably check behind. You only have one pair and the pot is already decent. I think a lot of times he has QQ or A-6 here. He slowplayed the flop b/c he had a set. Then when the board paired up he donktastically decided he needed to slowplay more. (Same deal with A-6 except he got lucky and hit the river.) He could also have AA or KK. He might have been bluffing...who the hell knows. He could have a scared KQ. Still I wouldn't be comfortable calling a c/r here, so I'd probably just check behind and see the free showdown for a decent pot.
Sponger15SB
10-15-2005, 06:52 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Are either of your cards hearts? That's kind of important in this hand.
[/ QUOTE ]
A /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif
mason55
10-15-2005, 06:57 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are either of your cards hearts? That's kind of important in this hand.
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A /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif
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Hrm. If you had the Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif it would be an easy check behind. Without it I could see K/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif playing it this way when he picks up his flush draw on the turn. I think I bet 1/2 - 2/3 pot and get called by Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif X/images/graemlins/heart.gif enough to make it +EV. Fold to a CR.
Andrew Fletcher
10-15-2005, 06:59 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I think a lot of times he has QQ or A-6 here. He slowplayed the flop b/c he had a set. Then when the board paired up he donktastically decided he needed to slowplay more. (Same deal with A-6 except he got lucky and hit the river.) He could also have AA or KK. He might have been bluffing...who the hell knows.
[/ QUOTE ]
I can't decide if this is a brilliant analyis of most small stakes players or totally useless. It's a weird series of bets.
He might think OP has a couple of hearts. I think QK/QJ is the most likey holding, given his action PF and on the flop-- when a heart doesn't hit on the turn he decides to fire off a bet.
mason55
10-15-2005, 07:04 PM
[ QUOTE ]
He might think OP has a couple of hearts. I think QK/QJ is the most likey holding, given his action PF and on the flop-- when a heart doesn't hit on the turn he decides to fire off a bet.
[/ QUOTE ]
By hearts you mean diamonds?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think a lot of times he has QQ or A-6 here. He slowplayed the flop b/c he had a set. Then when the board paired up he donktastically decided he needed to slowplay more. (Same deal with A-6 except he got lucky and hit the river.) He could also have AA or KK. He might have been bluffing...who the hell knows.
[/ QUOTE ]
I can't decide if this is a brilliant analyis of most small stakes players or totally useless. It's a weird series of bets.
He might think OP has a couple of hearts. I think QK/QJ is the most likey holding, given his action PF and on the flop-- when a heart doesn't hit on the turn he decides to fire off a bet.
[/ QUOTE ]
I like brillant. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I really don't know what villain has either, but I want to see a showdown. I'm not saying betting is bad, but I don't really think it matters much.
mason55
10-15-2005, 07:09 PM
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Still I wouldn't be comfortable calling a c/r here, so I'd probably just check behind and see the free showdown for a decent pot.
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The way villain has played this pot you're not getting CRed by a worse hand. The more I think about this the more I think that a value bet on the river is the right play.
slydeni
10-15-2005, 07:09 PM
yah, check here.
It smells fishy whatever it is. I'll tell you what would help is what kindof image you have in the villain's eyes. If you have been playing agg. he may be enticing you into a river bet and then a nice check raise -- in which case, we do not walk in to it. Maybe you are a rock in his eyes and never bet the river - in which case we may want to fire at him.
It does smell of either qk, or maybe a set. i could see him betting this wsy with 88, 1010, qq, kk, and aa ( i know latter 2 aren't sets, but you get my drift. ) And if he had 99 he has double belly draw, and may be taking a stab on turn. I think he has either a full house, or a busted draw, and is playing it weak. Again, his thougths on you would illuminate this even more.
sly
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Still I wouldn't be comfortable calling a c/r here, so I'd probably just check behind and see the free showdown for a decent pot.
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The way villain has played this pot you're not getting CRed by a worse hand. The more I think about this the more I think that a value bet on the river is the right play.
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I don't think you can assume this. hero's read is that Villain is a "LAG idiot." A LAG idiot might very well c/r with KQ or AQ. Here's his thougt process, "Hmmm, I know what I'll do. I have top pair good kicker/top kicker therefore I have the best hand, so I'll check the river and get him to fire at it. Then I'll raise to win myself a huge pot." The end. I really think that checking or betting here is pretty neutral EV. And when in doubt and in a marginal situation, I err on the side of caution and take the showdown.
But I'm completely confused as to what Villain has also. What the hell did he have?
mason55
10-15-2005, 07:21 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you can assume this. hero's read is that Villain is a "LAG idiot." A LAG idiot might very well c/r with KQ or AQ. Here's his thougt process, "Hmmm, I know what I'll do. I have top pair good kicker/top kicker therefore I have the best hand, so I'll check the river and get him to fire at it. Then I'll raise to win myself a huge pot." The end. I really think that checking or betting here is pretty neutral EV. And when in doubt and in a marginal situation, I err on the side of caution and take the showdown.
But I'm completely confused as to what Villain has also. What the hell did he have?
[/ QUOTE ]
The LAG idiot folded. Villain is not the LAG idiot.
slydeni
10-15-2005, 07:22 PM
no i think he characterized the guy who folded first the LAG idiot. villain is never characterized.
sly
I probably raise the turn to like $50 or so, folding to a 3-bet. It sucks hardcore when one of the bajillion scare cards hit on the river, and he bets again.
And I usually re-raise LAGs with AQ preflop if their pfr is high
Bukem_
10-15-2005, 07:28 PM
Why do you only give a read for the guy not in the hand anymore?
Raise turn here, most of the time he is trying to price himself in for his draw, rest of the time pricing himself in for cheap showdown with mediocre hand. Very small percent of time he has you crushed.
I'd probably bet river, but depends on read mostly.
slydeni
10-15-2005, 07:32 PM
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Bet, his hand looks weak. AK, JJ, AT, QJ.
COuld be a horribly slowplayed monster, but I doubt it.
Definitely value in a river bet vs idiot lag.
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the villain is not the idiot lag..this gentleman folded early in the hand.
Sponger15SB
10-15-2005, 07:53 PM
hmmm, raising the turn scares me, I hadn't even considered it but now I like the idea.
Isura
10-15-2005, 07:59 PM
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I probably raise the turn to like $50 or so, folding to a 3-bet. It sucks hardcore when one of the bajillion scare cards hit on the river, and he bets again.
And I usually re-raise LAGs with AQ preflop if their pfr is high
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I like all of this.
Hattifnatt
10-15-2005, 08:23 PM
Bet $35.
beset7
10-15-2005, 09:04 PM
I think raise the turn/fold to a push is the best line. If he calls the raise I check behind on the river. As you played it, I think checking behind is in order. Most of the hands in his range given the flop/turn action that you beat aren't calling a VB. Though betting 1/2 pot, folding to a c/r couldn't be too bad.
Malachii
10-16-2005, 10:31 PM
I think Villain has a draw here a lot of the time. You can bet it if you like, but he's probably not going to call. I raise the turn here.
JaBlue
10-16-2005, 10:49 PM
Where are you? The button? I am definitely at least considering reraising preflop, probably doing it if he's a lag idiot.
What's with the turn call? Are you just super afraid of a 3-bet all in? I like to raise the turn here. It really looks like he's drawing.
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