Donk Against Thinking Player?

[Roadstar]

Please comment on turn play. Reads - villain is slighltly LPA 24 VPIP or so, 5% PFR, but AF > 1 post flop (hence cold calls more than he should). Seems to be a thinking player. Table is generally tight (Eurobet without the Party base)

On the flop, I think villain is equally likely to have a Q and a flushdraw/bluff since he is somewhat of a thinking player that is aggressive post flop.

I decided to donk the turn to prevent a free card, fold to a raise. Thoughts? He could reasonably fold the flush draw since hes somewhat thinking post flop.


I think the only problem is if he calls, he could still be drawing or have a weak Q. What to do on the river then?


Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>?????

Final Pot: 6.25 BB

Thanks!

[Duffman]

I like the play so far.

I fold the turn to a raise. If I make it to the river, I check/fold.

Maybe this is too weak, but I always get myself into trouble with TT.

[bungyrocks]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the play so far.

I fold the turn to a raise. If I make it to the river, I check/fold.

Maybe this is too weak, but I always get myself into trouble with TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

why would you fold the river here?
If we put villian on a flush draw he is going to call the turn. I think bet fold might be a better river line.

[SackUp]

The play is ok, but what makes it tough is that villain cc preflop. Only seeing 24% makes his cc range fairly small. Looking at AQ, KQs, and PP. Then maybe some hands like AJs and A10s.

You are ahead of many of these hands, many of which are on draws. B/F the turn. Then see what comes on the river.

Bet a non club A or K. c/c all other non clubs. probably c/f a club.

[Duffman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like the play so far.

I fold the turn to a raise. If I make it to the river, I check/fold.

Maybe this is too weak, but I always get myself into trouble with TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

why would you fold the river here?
If we put villian on a flush draw he is going to call the turn. I think bet fold might be a better river line.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think Villain will bluff the river since we bet the turn. If you bet/fold you lose an extra bet than if you check/fold. And if he calls your bet you're probably beat, if we assume he's a thinking player.

[baronzeus]

this is fine, you need to fold ot a turn raise, you need to check/call river

[bungyrocks]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like the play so far.

I fold the turn to a raise. If I make it to the river, I check/fold.

Maybe this is too weak, but I always get myself into trouble with TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

why would you fold the river here?
If we put villian on a flush draw he is going to call the turn. I think bet fold might be a better river line.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think Villain will bluff the river since we bet the turn. If you bet/fold you lose an extra bet than if you check/fold. And if he calls your bet you're probably beat, if we assume he's a thinking player.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
villain is slighltly LPA 24 VPIP or so, 5% PFR, but AF &gt; 1 post flop

[/ QUOTE ]

based on this I think villian may bluff the river when given the opportunity.

[alul]

This is probably fine if you fold to the raise. But the problem here is you give up your outs if behind. I'd rather check/call the turn and bet the river.

[alul]

[ QUOTE ]
slighltly LPA 24 VPIP or so, 5% PFR, but AF &gt; 1 post flop (hence cold calls more than he should).

[/ QUOTE ]
Can't figure out how you arrived to this conclusion. Could you please elaborate?

[ QUOTE ]
this is fine, you need to fold ot a turn raise, you need to check/call river

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the best line, but I'd probably end up folding the river to a bet...

possibly a queen with a backdoor club draw, something like KQ, QJ or maybe possibly a weak queen and was scared of the club draw, and when the turn brang a non-club he turned it up. usually when a player starts showing aggression on the turn and is passive on the flop means he flopped something of decent strength and didnt want to scare you off of your possible club draw since thats how you make your money, when players miss their draws.

and like one of the guys in here said, any A or K comes and im slowing down bigtime, he could have something like AK and is trying to get you off of the hand by initiating the betting on the turn.. being sneaky and making you think too much.

[Roadstar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
slighltly LPA 24 VPIP or so, 5% PFR, but AF &gt; 1 post flop (hence cold calls more than he should).

[/ QUOTE ]
Can't figure out how you arrived to this conclusion. Could you please elaborate?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well almost every hand there is a raise (it is eurobet after the party split afterall). So for this guy to have 24 VPIP but only 5% PFR hes cold calling a lot (which I've seen him do).

[Roadstar]

[ QUOTE ]
The play is ok, but what makes it tough is that villain cc preflop. Only seeing 24% makes his cc range fairly small. Looking at AQ, KQs, and PP. Then maybe some hands like AJs and A10s.

You are ahead of many of these hands, many of which are on draws. B/F the turn. Then see what comes on the river.

Bet a non club A or K. c/c all other non clubs. probably c/f a club.

[/ QUOTE ]

So without the two /images/graemlins/club.gif, we're probably C/F turn?

Thanks!

[Carmine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this is fine, you need to fold ot a turn raise, you need to check/call river

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the best line, but I'd probably end up folding the river to a bet...

[/ QUOTE ]

If you fold to a river bet then you are not understanding the principal behind this line.

[Roadstar]

Sorry for the late update on the results


Turn:

Hero bets, Villain folds.


I wonder if villain was just trying to raise a paired board to scare me out of the hand - or did he really let go of a flush draw?

Thanks!

[elindauer]

Given the hand range you put him on, there's no reason to donk the turn. It's highly unlikely that an aggressive player is going to take a free card on the turn in this spot, since he will surely believe he has significant fold equity with a bet.

In light of that, betting yourself only gives him the opportunity to outplay with a semibluff raise. Check and call against this villain, encouraging him to bluff the river as well.

The only way a donkbet makes sense is if you think there is a decent chance he has a hand he thinks is a total bluff but which you know actually has plenty of outs against you. Think KJo or something. If you do think this though, you're probably better off 3-betting the flop then donking the turn, checkcalling after that if he calls.

good luck.
Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
You are ahead of many of these hands, many of which are on draws. B/F the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you think these draws are likely to bet the turn unimproved heads up? This guy is fairly aggressive postflop. Why give him the opportunity to outplay you?

-Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
This is probably fine if you fold to the raise. But the problem here is you give up your outs if behind. I'd rather check/call the turn and bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand betting the river. A major reason to continue in the hand is the possibility that he is on a draw. If he hits the draw, betting is bad. If he misses the draw, it's also bad, because he won't call. Check call the river to pick off a bluff.

Of course, it would be better if you set this up on the turn by check-calling, giving him more incentive to fire the last bullet when he misses.

-Eric

[Luv2DriveTT]

[ QUOTE ]
this is fine, you need to fold to a turn raise, you need to check/call river

[/ QUOTE ]

Although your play has merit, after 5 minutes of discussion this hand plays bets if the Hero calls down - we (JasonT and I) want to see a showdown. The pot isn't that big, assuming the villain bets the turn &amp; river, Hero is getting 7.25:2; If the villain checks the turn, the hero must bet the river.

Conversely if the hero bets the turn, we all agree he must fold to a raise. At the same time the villain will continue to call with any Q or flush draw with the same 7.25:2 ratio (assuming the hero checks-calls the river).

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[Roadstar]

Can you and elindauer explain in a bit more detail why we go into check/call mode so soon? I understand that it would help induce a bluff from villain but by betting the turn, if we get raised, its likely to be a strong Q (or better) and we can safely fold (save 1 bet). If we don't get raised, villain could be on a draw and we're charging him for it (gain a good % of 1Bet and maybe more?)

Are you really trying to say its a WA/WB situation (Q or no Q) and there's no profitable way to find out?

Again would the lack of 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif's on the flop change it to a C/F turn?


And to take this train of thought 1 step further, if villain is very likely to bet when checked to on the turn due to perceived "fold" equity, would it make it right to go for a check raise on the turn then? (thinking at 1 more level higher)

Thanks guys!

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
...if we get raised, its likely to be a strong Q (or better) and we can safely fold (save 1 bet).

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't believe this is a "safe" fold. It may be your best option if you choose to bet, but you will be laying down the best a percentage of the time that is well above 0%. You'll also be forfeiting any hope of drawing out. And to gain what? You know the flush draw is highly likely to bet again, same for any total steal. Why allow yourself to get outplayed just to get the same amount of money in? Unless you are planning to check-raise... which still suggests that at least a check is in order. Bet / fold is right out.


[ QUOTE ]
And to take this train of thought 1 step further, if villain is very likely to bet when checked to on the turn due to perceived "fold" equity, would it make it right to go for a check raise on the turn then? (thinking at 1 more level higher)

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to decide the odds that the villain has a hand we can beat. To call down, we only need to be right often enough that the pot odds justify it. To put in that 2nd bet though, we have to think we are good so often that we WANT to put MORE money in. That's a much higher percentage.

Note that if we are wrong and we are behind, we lose virtually the full bet. If we are ahead of a flush draw, we only gain about half a big bet. So we need to be ahead 2/3 of the time. That's a much higher requirement than what is necessary to call down.

Of course, I'm assuming his hand range is a Q or better or a flush draw, as stated in the OP. Given the results, this is wrong. When you mix in some chance of your opponent being on a total bluff, things change, although check-call still has a lot of merit in this pot.

-Eric

In view of the results, what was his likely holding?

I don't think he folds a flush draw here.

Possibly A or K clubs, hoping to hit his overcard or backdoor flush. His flop raise would be an attempt to get a free look at the river.

A small pocket pair which he flop-raised to gain information. He interpreted your betting out on the turn as an indication that he was beat.

[Luv2DriveTT]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
...if we get raised, its likely to be a strong Q (or better) and we can safely fold (save 1 bet).

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't believe this is a "safe" fold. It may be your best option if you choose to bet, but you will be laying down the best a percentage of the time that is well above 0%. You'll also be forfeiting any hope of drawing out. And to gain what? You know the flush draw is highly likely to bet again, same for any total steal. Why allow yourself to get outplayed just to get the same amount of money in? Unless you are planning to check-raise... which still suggests that at least a check is in order. Bet / fold is right out.

[/ QUOTE ]

elindauer said it for me already, nice post.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[alul]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is probably fine if you fold to the raise. But the problem here is you give up your outs if behind. I'd rather check/call the turn and bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand betting the river. A major reason to continue in the hand is the possibility that he is on a draw. If he hits the draw, betting is bad. If he misses the draw, it's also bad, because he won't call. Check call the river to pick off a bluff.

Of course, it would be better if you set this up on the turn by check-calling, giving him more incentive to fire the last bullet when he misses.

-Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you are right. Check/calling the river is better.