OT? +EV Situations in life

Hello all,

I'm in the midst of writing my college application essay about using the EV formula (amount to be won)*(Chance of winning) - (amount to be lost)*(Chance of losing) to guide everyday life. There are certainly plenty of examples where one could use this formula outside the world of poker.

Please contribute any examples of times you have used the EV formula to make a decision, or if you haven't, places where hypothetically you could. No obvious simple answers like "Marriage = +EV"

I'd like explanations if possible, and as in depth answers as you are willing to provide. Thanks for any and all thoughts on this subject,

-Grant

[AthenianStranger]

The concept of expected value is a more specialized application of the economic principles of "exchange value" and "opportunity cost." Karl Marx, who coined the former term, explores the question you raise, though not so overtly. That is, he applies the Hegelian concept of group consciousness to the economic system of capitalism and its focus on "commodities." He does not imply that people consciously "apply" the idea of expected value, so much as proclaim that the method and manner of one's "work" determines their very consciousness and being. I don't need to elaborate at great length in supplying, that Marx thought very little of the effect of the way of life precipitated by capitalism.

The truth is that life is too grand to be subject to such a formulaic and contingent concept of "value." Such a conscious application of this transactional ideal is bound to be as lifeless as it is empty. One might look toward Objectivism as an example.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm in the midst of writing my college application essay about using the EV formula (amount to be won)*(Chance of winning) - (amount to be lost)*(Chance of losing) to guide everyday life.


[/ QUOTE ]
It's hard to spend a long time talking about something that seems like common sense unless you see how frequently people don't follow it. I suggest contrasting the method of maximizing your EV with examples where people don't use EV, e.g., where they try to minimize regret (magnitude or the probability of regret), or don't/can't estimate probabilities or values, or fail to maximize EV because doing so would violate some principle they find more important.

Then you can take just about any decision, and ask whether people are using EV, or are using a completely different process.

[RJT]

Mr. Smith Goes to College,

How about something like this:

College education is +EV. Then also add some lines why the particular college(s)you are applying to are especially +EV for you. Perhaps, you can add just a few lines to why it is +EV for the college to admit you, too - how the college will benefit by having you as a student (and a future alumnus, but this might be superfluous)

Best wishes with your future education.

RJT.

I think this idea is very clever. The application readers will probably get a kick out of it and it will be +EV for your chances to get in. Whatever you do, just don't mention the fact that you can drop out after your first year and still become a wildly successful poker author like Sklansky. They'll all be jealous.