+EV Situations in life?

Hello all,

I'm in the midst of writing my college application essay about using the EV formula (amount to be won)*(Chance of winning) - (amount to be lost)*(Chance of losing) to guide everyday life. There are certainly plenty of examples where one could use this formula outside the world of poker.

Please contribute any examples of times you have used the EV formula to make a decision, or if you haven't, places where hypothetically you could. No obvious simple answers like "Marriage = +EV"

I'd like explanations if possible, and as in depth answers as you are willing to provide. Thanks for any and all thoughts on this subject,

-Grant

[Prevaricator]

by EV do you mean money and only money?

If so, I think that's an obnoxious thing to say.

[RDWallace]

If you want to attend college, my advice would be to find a different essay topic.

Do you really think you are making a brilliant observation here?

[sarcasm] Wow! You mean I can weigh costs and benefits when I'm not gambling? There is more to statistics than counting poker outs? Outside of Texas Hold'em, people take calculated risks? Jesus Christ, I can't believe it.

I would list examples but what a waste of time.

[Nightwish]

As another poster mentioned, this is a horrible topic for an essay. To put this in your terms, this essay is very much -EV.

[cwsiggy]

[(Having a hankering for a chocolate shake and satisfying it) * (going to get it)]
- [(not enjoying shake) * (chance of getting in accident on way or an allergic reaction)]

[(100 * 100%)] - [(1 * .0000000000001)] = +EV!!

[rbenuck4]

+EV would be not mentioning poker or any poker terms in a college essay. I don't think colleges want to see that you are a degenrate gambler (and this is how it is very likely to be perceived as it is possible that a 50 year old menopausal woman will be reading it).

[Cyrus]

[ QUOTE ]
No obvious simple answers like "Marriage = +EV"


[/ QUOTE ]

Try again.

[dibbs]

I hate this extension of the idea/phrase.

I'd avoid using this as an essay if possible, not just cuz I hate the phrase either. I just dont think it would represent you too well.

[Evan]

First, every decision you make in life should be based on EV, in a sense. So your topic is really boring ad obvious.

Second, don't write your college essay about anything relating to gambling.

[SheetWise]

[ QUOTE ]
There are certainly plenty of examples where one could use this formula outside the world of poker.

[/ QUOTE ]
You first have to believe that concepts in rational probability can be meaningfully extended to logical probability. Interesting. (http://www.littlesputnik.net/trpearce/Dewey_Carnap.htm)

[VeryTnA]

I can read you mind....
You think you are a great poker player.
You want everyone to know how smart you are at poker. (I'm such a great player I wrote my colloge essay about poker and the prof's didn't know. LOL)
You are going to college because a parent is forcing you.
You think once you get away from home and can play more hours it will be only a matter of time before you drop out of college and become a poker professional.
Etc. etc.

Tell me I'm wrong

[Klepton]

i dont think enough people have told you not to write an essay on gambling.

don't do it.

[ATbx22]

HEY do ur own work for school!!!!!

It appears the majority of the people in news views and gossip have poor reading skills. My essay has nothing to do with poker, gambling, or dropping out of school to go pro (what was that person thinking?)

It has everything to do with applying game theory to real life situations, a task far above virtually all the repliers.

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
It appears the majority of the people in news views and gossip have poor reading skills. My essay has nothing to do with poker, gambling, or dropping out of school to go pro (what was that person thinking?)

It has everything to do with applying game theory to real life situations, a task far above virtually all the repliers.

[/ QUOTE ]
Good luck at the community college.

[nummerfire]

How is it that everyone answering this this thread are assuming that game theory only relies to gambling.

Game theory is very applicable to some problems in economics. Actually I think somebody got an nobel price in Economics applying game theory.

And the EVdo not need to be measured in money. There is a concept i think is called "utility value". For example for some people a weeks extra holiday are worth more than a pay raise.

[SheetWise]

As I stated earlier - You first have to believe that concepts in rational probability can be meaningfully extended to logical probability.

If OP wants to do a paper, simply do it on Logical Theory.

For me, giving you a serious answer is -EV

[Moneyline]

First of all, I think the majority of people who responded to your post did not read it thoroughly enough. You clearly did not say that you were going to mention anything about gambling in your paper.

That said, I think you should be aware that your topic is a rehashing of utilitarianism. Utilitarianism is a a branch of ethics and philosophy that states decisions should be made based on the overall "good" that you expect them to create. One utilitarian philosopher (I believe it was John Stuart Mill, but I can't remember exactly) even went so far as to propose that you could make your ethical decisions based upon the EV formula listed in your post.

Utilitarianism is not without its sticky points. Here's an example that shows some of the problems with it:

Let's say you know there is a very good chance the President is about to launch an unjust war that will likely lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths and create little positive benefit in return. You also know that if you kill the President before the invasion you will almost certainly prevent the war. Should you kill the President? According to the EV formula/utility calculation, the answer is clearly yes. However, you'd be hard pressed to find many people who would claim that murdering the President would be a moral act, even/especially among those who oppose the war build-up.

The point I'm trying to get across here is that your essay topic might not be the best idea because simply following +EV is not always the best way to make your decisions in life... and in gambling too, but that's a different topic and this post is already long enough.

Good luck with your essay...