67s

[Skuzzy]

NL100

Villain has $110, Hero covers

Villain is semi loose but has folded to pressure before. Stats around the 24/6 area.


Villain is UTG, Hero is the button
Hero has 6/images/graemlins/club.gif7/images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG raises to 5
MP1 calls
CO calls
Hero calls

Flop ($21.50) J/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif

Villain bets $20
MP1 folds
CO folds
Hero ?


I'm curious how everyone plays a hand like this. I put villain on JJ+ or AK maybe even AQ preflop. He's made pot sized continuation bets before but this time it looks likely he has a hand since he's betting into 3 players. The board looks fairly quiet apart from the flush draw though so maybe he's feeling bold though. My gut says he's holding an overpair.

What do you think?

[FreakDaddy]

Not a huge fan of the mini-raise, but this is the place for it. Good chance you're ahead and you have a lot of outs. If you raise anymore then that, you might as well push. Flat calling puts you in a tough spot.

[kongo_totte]

Make a committing raise. You are atleast a coin flip vs. all of his likely holdings except J J and you should have plenty of F.E.

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
Not a huge fan of the mini-raise, but this is the place for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I want to maximize folding equity here and make it a real raise. I don't like a push, since it will look like hero is holding exactly what he is holding. Basically, I thibk making it $65-70 has more folding equity than a push.

[Skuzzy]

I thought the same.

If villain (as suspected) is raising only premium hands from UTG my equity is 60% against his range JJ+ and AK.
In addition if he has JJ my flush outs are all good unless the board pairs, and I like having 2 outs to a set if he calls with AA/KK. Fold equity was the phrase in my mind here. So did I have it?

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not a huge fan of the mini-raise, but this is the place for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I want to maximize folding equity here and make it a real raise. I don't like a push, since it will look like hero is holding exactly what he is holding. Basically, I thibk making it $65-70 has more folding equity than a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems like backwards reasoning. If you have the best hand, why do you want him to fold? /images/graemlins/smile.gif Plus with the stack sizes, any larger raise has commited hero to the pot. If the read is correct, it's not even correct for villian to call mini-raise with overs, unless he has a bigger draw himself.

Like I said, I'm not a fan of the mini-raise, but here it seems like the optimal play HU's.

[slydeni]

can i ask a question that seems like it will be elementary?

would someone mind explaining fold equity to me, and how to calculate it? apparently my defintition of it is not correct. thanks for taking the time to help out...

be well
sly

All in baby, these are the kind of flops you are hoping for when you call a raise with 67s

Well, either all in or raise pot, basically whatever you think maximizes your fold equity, but you are getting all your chips in on this hand.

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
If you have the best hand, why do you want him to fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if villian has a hand, hero is likely a coinflip. Coinflip= 0 EV. If we get villian to fold, EV= whatever is in the pot.


[ QUOTE ]
Plus with the stack sizes, any larger raise has commited hero to the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no problem getting commited here, as long as I am doing the raising, hence I have the advantage of folding him out.

[ QUOTE ]
Like I said, I'm not a fan of the mini-raise, but here it seems like the optimal play HU's.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMHO, this is a horrible spot for a min.raise. If we min.raise and villian pushes we are in a horrible spot. We have odds to call against anything but a set. I'd much rather (infact, I think it's mandatory) be the aggressor.

Note: there is no draw that is a favourite over hero.

[scdavis0]

No brainer push.

Fold equity is simply the size of the existing pot multiplied by your guess of the probability he'll fold.

So in this case there's $40 in the pot, say you think he folds 50% of his hands if you raise, your fold equity is $20.

Obviously the % of the time he calls, your hand equity is then your pot equity (~50% x pot in this case)

[FreakDaddy]

I understand all this of course and I've thought a lot about pushing draws with overs or pushing draws with a piece of the flop. Having a piece is the best scenario as we're typically more than 50% equity on the flop. Here's the thing though, in THIS particualr scenario, if we push and hero has overs he's folding. If villian has over pair like QQ-AA then X% of the time he'll fold his hand which is +EV for us, but what about the times he has over cards and will call the mini-raise, isn't this a mistake? Isn't that what we want to do in poker, make the other guy make a mistake.

I completely understand the book thinking about this hand and being the aggressor, I'm just curious if there is an even better way to take advantage of these situations, and I think the mini-raise line is best. He's still folding X% of the time AND it leaves the possibility open for villian to make a mistake. If he pushes, we're still a favorite and we'll call (in this particualr scenario). Perhaps I'm wrong, but I think this is the way to maximize our vaule in the hand. Let me know what ya think.

I'm more inclined to push say AKs in this scenario then having a piece of this flop since villian may have overs, and may still call.

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
if we push and hero has overs he's folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since no other read is given, I assumed villian would fold missed overs pretty quickly to a min.raise.

I think what we gain the few times villian is a total donk and will call with missed overs is not compensated for what we lose in folding equity. Also, say we min.raise, he calls, the turn is an A and he puts us all in. Yuck.

[RED FACE]

How deep do the stacks have to be to make this no longer a no-brainer-push? Sometimes you'll be up against a set and be a 7:3 dog or so. So when does pushing here become wrong?

[nietzreznor]

How do you think villain would play KK if you raise him? If you think your opponent is capable of folding in spots like these, then raise. And if he does push, call.

If not (if you think he 3 bets/pushes vast majority of the time) then just call.