Odds Question For Ed Miller From SSHE

[p@t@dds]

Ok, bare with me if you can. Say you are dealt J/T clubs. The flop comes down 2d, 4s, 9c. Now in SSHE, it advises that after the flop you should add 1.5 outs to a backdoor flush draw and and the same to a backdoor straight draw. So this hand if you count overcards and all, you would have a total of 6 outs. The question I have is what odds would you use to calculate whether or not you have the right odds to continue. If you use the odds laid out in Hold 'Em For Advanced players, it states with 6 outs and both the turn and river to come you would need odds of 3.15 to 1 or better to call. However, if you use the odds to hit one of your needed cards on just the turn you would have odds of roughly 6.83 to 1. Which do you use when you are considering backdoor draws? Would it be the 6.83 to 1, since there really is no reason to go on if you miss? Or would you still use the 3.15 to 1? Any help here would be greatly appreciated.

[Carmine]

The pot needs to be laying you 7:1 on the flop to continue. Your outs are going to change on the turn. If you brick on the turn your BD outs are now gone leaving only overs, if that. If you catch you gain outs. How many depends on weather you pick up a gutshot, SD or FD.

The times when you calculate odds to the river is when you know you will be seeing both the turn and river cards. When holding a four flush on the flop for example or an OESD. You only need one card to complete your draw so EITHER the turn or river could help you. With BD draws, both the turn and river MUST help you. So you may never proceed past the turn. Also don't forget when calculating to the river the additional bets you may have to call to see the river.

[p@t@dds]

I understand what you are saying. However, let's take the backdoor flush draw as the example. In the book, SSHE, Miller states that a backdoor flush draw is a 23 to 1 dog to come in. A hand on the flop with 1 out is a 22.5 to 1 dog to come in by the river. So in my first post and hand with two backdoor draws and two overs is calculated to have roughly 6 outs. Why then would that not be calculated the same and have odds of 3.14 to 1? I understand that you are chucking if you don't hit on the turn. But, I thought that was the reason for only giving backdoor draws partial outs and not full outs, because you do fold on the turn if you miss and it doesn't cost you more.

[shant]

47 cards left in the deck, six outs that can come on the turn.

41/6 = 6.8 to 1.

On the turn there will be 46 cards and you can recalculate your outs and your odds there. You don't calculate it all at once because your outs can change, as does the pot size and the size of the bets.

[p@t@dds]

I would agree, if no matter what, you were going to fold the hand after the turn if you did not connect any of your BD draws. However, that hardly ever is the case. You can be chasing a draw and hit a pair on the turn. You could miss and have the pot checked through. Any number of things could happen. With a hand of J/T clubs and a flop of <font color="red"> 2d </font>, 4s, 9c you have a backdoor flush, a no-space backdoor straight, and two overs. Now, SSHE says to count the BD Flush draw as 1.5 outs, the no-space BD Straight draw as 1.5 and both overs as 1.5 outs each, for a total of 6 outs. With your thinking, a draw on the flop with 6 outs has odds of 6.8 to 1 to improve on the turn. I used to think that as well. However, under that way of thinking, you would have more than just 6 outs to improve on the turn. You would have the ten remaining clubs(10 outs) for the BD Flush, three 7's, 8's, Queen's, King's (12 outs) for the BD Straight, and three Ten's and Jack's (6 outs) for the two overs. So, if you were looking to improve on just the turn you would have 28 cards/outs that will improve either your BD Flush, BD Straight, or your two overs. That's why I believe you are supposed to use the odds calculated for both the turn and the river. Miller states that if you have a BD Flush draw on the flop, it is a 23 to 1 dog, roughly the same as a hand with 1 out. However, it is worth slightly more (1.5 outs) for a couple of reasons (see page 102 of SSHE). Using your calculations any draw with 1.5 outs would have odds of 30.34 to 1. And that is why I believe you would use the odds for both the turn and river and not just the turn. In other words, when you are counting up your outs and the hand has BD Draws, on the flop you would use the odds for both the turn and the river to come.