hitting a downswing when taking a shot at moving up

[mhlandry]

Oh man.

Back story: been playing poker for about 8 months. Started at .5/1, made it on up through to 2/4. Made a couple of grand.

Started losing discipline--trying to play other poker variants I didn't know how to play. Bankroll started dwindling, so I decided to rededicate myself.

Still had enough for 2/4 6max, so I went to absolute and was beating that over a few thousand hands. Hit a nasty downswing, realized I might not be good enough for absolute's 2/4 6max. Went down to party's 1/2 6max. Players were much worse than at absolute, but I still couldn't win.

At this point I'm 100% sure it's variance. But my mind is so messed up I try a few things. I move to full ring and limit my sessions to a fixed number of hands. This works well. I'm still running a little bad at the beginning but it doesn't matter any more bc of the fixed sessions. Moreover I start judging my sessions on whether I made good decisions as opposed to whether I won money.

Eventually the variance evens out and over 10k hands I'm beating this game at 2.4bb/100 (4-5 tabling no less) and starting to wonder why I'm wasting my time at 1/2. (Look, I know 10k isn't even remotely enough to gauge a winrate, but they say you know if you're beating a game after 10k...)

So I try to take a stab at 2/4 tonight and the wheels just fall off. The players are terrible. You could win money at this game just by playing the right hands preflop. But I've never had so many things go wrong at once and I don't know how to handle it. I need suggestions. I guess I have to move back down to 1/2, but is there anything else I can do?

I also realize that this is a ridiculously small sample size. But my mind is so messed up right now. I need some suggestions for getting it back on straight. Take a break? Is it that simple?

Ah well, here's the evidence:

http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a106/mhlandry/takingashotatmovingupto2-4.jpg

Okay, so I don't know how to post an image. But basically I sorted pokertracker by biggest losing hands and the results are: KQo, KK, KQs, T9s, AQs, 99, AKs, A9s, TT, A9o, AKo, KJo, AJo, ATo. [censored], it's only 75bb. But in 600 hands! That's what it is. It's all this crap in that few hands. How do I deal with that?

[Weatherhead03]

Had the samething happen to me tonight. Moved up to 1/2 and got killed, not outplayed but I lost big. At one time one three of my four tables I had AA, KK and JJ that all lost big pots.

I guess it goes to say varience sucks ass.

[adsman]

I try to play without hope. I pretend that it's another person playing and I'm just watching the cards fall wondering what I would do.
I don't set stop limits on my sessions. You might not have a big loss but you probably won't have a big win either. I have noticed in the last few months that my losing sessions have rarely been over 20BB but my winning sessions have often been over that mark. If I start off bad I don't try to get even or finish the session a winner, I just try and limit the damage. 56% of my sessions are winning ones. I think that's pretty good. 44% of the time when I sit down to play I lose. I don't care. When I'm finished I'm done. If I lose ten sessions in a row I don't start tinkering with my game. It happens. I don't start jumping around levels hoping to hit on a winning formula. I'm playing at a level because I'm bankrolled for that level and I consider myself a winning player at that level.
Unclutter your mind. Work out where you are and where you need to be. Go there. Play calm poker. Be detached from results. Make good decisions.

[JackThree]

[ QUOTE ]
I pretend that it's another person playing and I'm just watching the cards fall wondering what I would do.

[/ QUOTE ]

i love you /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[mhlandry]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't set stop limits on my sessions

[/ QUOTE ]

Neither do I. I set a fixed number of hands to play and then play them.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't start jumping around levels hoping to hit on a winning formula.

[/ QUOTE ]

Neither do I. I was a winner at every level before I moved up. The only questionable move I made was to absolute's 2/4 6max. The reason I'm moving around levels recently is to try to gain my confidence back. Not to try to hit some 'formula'.

Just wanted to clarify that. I may have problems but those two aren't among them.

[adsman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't set stop limits on my sessions

[/ QUOTE ]

Neither do I. I set a fixed number of hands to play and then play them.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a stop limit. Lets say for arguments sake that your stop limit is 200 hands. You reach that number and you're up 15BB, two major fish are now sitting directly to your right and you've got two major tight-wads on your left. By your reasoning, you now have to stand up and leave.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't start jumping around levels hoping to hit on a winning formula.

[/ QUOTE ]

Neither do I. I was a winner at every level before I moved up. The only questionable move I made was to absolute's 2/4 6max. The reason I'm moving around levels recently is to try to gain my confidence back. Not to try to hit some 'formula'.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I'll rephrase it. I don't jump around levels trying to get my confidence back. How is that going to work? Are you hoping to land blindly down at a table at some level and have a winning session? You want to get your confidence back? Drop down and grind out 5000 hands and see how you're going. Hell, drop down two levels. The money isn't the problem, right? It's getting your confidence back to play good poker.

[silvershade]

This happened to me in reverse recently, started at .5/1 and worked my way up to 2/4, then I dipped into the roll for a new monitor as I was getting headaches with old one. This forced me to drop to 1/2 where i immediately started to get killed bad beat after bad beat, I lost half of my remaining roll. I took a couple weeks off as i was pretty sure my play was shot from fear at this point. I took a long look at my play before coming back and starting with .5/1 with a slightly different game, a little tighter pre-flop ( 15%vpip as opposed to my old 20% ) and became a lot more aggressive. First day i got killed for the first couple of hours, didnt matter what I had the other guy would hit his miracle river, but I managed to hold it together and after another 4 hours or so I finished well up on the day.

Now I'm playing .5/1 again and looking at a good bit of work to get back where I was..... but I'm certain that I'm a tougher player now following the long look I took over those 2 weeks without play. I actually find myself grateful that it happened when it did rather than when I'd progressed further up the levels.

[mhlandry]

First of all, there's always plenty of good Party 2/4 tables. Using your line of reasoning I would never be able to leave a table until some random set of cosmic events occurred and there was a less than stellar 2/4 table on party. In addition, I've only borrowed this 'stop-loss' technique from posters in different forums on this site (Psychology, HUSH).

Secondly, perhaps I didn't make this clear in the OP, but I did drop down two levels. Went back to .5/1, realized how much of a joke that was. Then went to 1/2, realized how much of a joke that was, and still 'grinded out' 10k hands.

[Guruman]

[ QUOTE ]
So I try to take a stab at 2/4 tonight and the wheels just fall off. The players are terrible. You could win money at this game just by playing the right hands preflop. But I've never had so many things go wrong at once and I don't know how to handle it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's a fun way to take a shot:
go to a crypto site and get to clearing thier monthly $90 bonus at the 1/2 £ tables. This translates to somewhere between 1/2 and 2/4, but the numbers look the same. Also, there tend to be bad european players there. Good times. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[POKhER]

If it makes you feel better, i took a shot at 1/2last night. Dropped 70$ (35BB).

if you think you can chrush it, stick to it and adjust slightly providing you have the BR.

[benkath1]

[ QUOTE ]
If it makes you feel better, i took a shot at 1/2last night. Dropped 70$ (35BB).

if you think you can chrush it, stick to it and adjust slightly providing you have the BR.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it makes you feel any better, I took a shot at 5/10 last night. lost $200 (20bb, 50 at my current level). Fishiest table I've sat on in a long while. VPIP was near 40%. Good experience, bad luck. I am not dissatisfied with my play one bit. When my top set gets cracked by a runner runner gutshot broadway str8, I just laughed and made a note. It happens, just continue to plya your A game.

[mhlandry]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If it makes you feel better, i took a shot at 1/2last night. Dropped 70$ (35BB).

if you think you can chrush it, stick to it and adjust slightly providing you have the BR.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it makes you feel any better, I took a shot at 5/10 last night. lost $200 (20bb, 50 at my current level).

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a joke? 20bb? Please say it is.

[BluEsiNsOuL]

In my first 10K hands at 1/2 6Max I had a winrate over 4BB, next thing I know I have 7K hands break-even. If your main goal is to test if you are good enough for a limit, you probably need to hang in there for a while, don't let the downswing scares you. Everytime I move up to a new limit, I hit a downswing too. You definitely need to adjust some aspects of your game to survive.

[mhlandry]

[ QUOTE ]
In my first 10K hands at 1/2 6Max I had a winrate over 4BB, next thing I know I have 7K hands break-even. If your main goal is to test if you are good enough for a limit, you probably need to hang in there for a while, don't let the downswing scares you. Everytime I move up to a new limit, I hit a downswing too. You definitely need to adjust some aspects of your game to survive.

[/ QUOTE ]

I continuously work on adjusting my game, whether I'm moving up a limit or not. Besides, party 1/2 and 2/4 aren't very different from what I can tell. The 2/4 players may be worse.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If it makes you feel any better, I took a shot at 5/10 last night. lost $200 (20bb, 50 at my current level).

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a joke? 20bb? Please say it is.

[/ QUOTE ]
He was referring to how that's not much money at 5/10, but a lot more significant at the level he usually plays (which would be 2/4).

[trainslayer]

Why do you ask for help and advise and then trash the help and advise that's offered? Sounds like you don't really need or want it. We all have downswings. If your playing good poker it'll work out. If'n ya aint....

[POKhER]

ouch $200 hurts.

Im down $120 after 1/2

UB SUCKS ASS - I played there past few days im down over $80 there (1/2). poor site full of tags and no one raises AA/AK so hard to read them too. Geee im never going to that place ever again.

[scotty34]

There are way too many downswing posts going on in this forum. There was a near identical one yesterday. Everybody has downswings - I blew $800 in 2-3 days when I first moved up to 3/6. I know your confidence may be low, and you are looking for support, but if you know you are playing well, that is what matters. Maybe if you are still losing after 25K hands, then you can make a post like this. Don't just post because you had a 3K hand downswing - they happen ALL THE TIME. Post some hands, reply to hands, read SSH again etc.

[digitalis]

When the swings start getting to you I think it is important to try to focus on having fun at poker instead of trying to outplay everyone all the time.

I have the Poki's Poker Academy software and I start lagging it up for fun. Especially at no-limit. It's a good way to release tension. Try to see how aggressive you can play and still make money.

[mhlandry]

[ QUOTE ]
but if you know you are playing well, that is what matters.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually this was the point of my whole post. What I'm asking advice for has nothing to do with my play. I have no problem with the way I'm playing. But we all know a 'good' player who lacks discipline loses in the long run. And so many beats in so few a time has really gotten to me.

So what I wanted were tips for focusing and improving my discipline. I should've realized microlimit wasn't the forum to post this in. I apologize.

Good day ladies and gentlemen.

Generalities are obviously not what you are looking for. How about posting a few hands where you think you are unfocused and undisciplined? The folks here can be very specific with advise and techniques and lines of play when they have something to work with. Good luck...not that luck has anything to do with it.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but if you know you are playing well, that is what matters.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually this was the point of my whole post. What I'm asking advice for has nothing to do with my play. I have no problem with the way I'm playing. But we all know a 'good' player who lacks discipline loses in the long run. And so many beats in so few a time has really gotten to me.

So what I wanted were tips for focusing and improving my discipline. I should've realized microlimit wasn't the forum to post this in. I apologize.

Good day ladies and gentlemen.

[/ QUOTE ]

hooray for acting all high and mighty

I've went through 100+downswings at 1/2, 2/4, 3/6 and am in a similar situation at 5/10 right now at -58BB .. first thing you need to realize is that its never 100% variance, 99% of players play worse when things aren't going well, bad calls, bad folds .. tilt-raises, so stop thinking you are an expert getting hit with the variance stick, and look at your game, you'll find things that aren't good, don't worry everybody does

secondly, stop worrying so much about your results over a such a small sample, I couldn't see your stats, as the pic was tiny .. but I think you mentioned 75BB in 600hands, which isn't anything too unreasonable, and certainly not the worst you'll see.

getting to the point where the normal day to day swings doesn't bother you is a long process, and one that starts over at each new level I move upto, and basically its something where you have to tough it out, vent a little, and be real introspective of your game, saying that you "have no problem with the way you are playing" is a cop-out, you most certainly should be worried with the way you are playing, as you have leaks(everyone does) saying I don't need to work on my game outside of discipline coming from a 2/4 player is foolish, maybe someone who's beating 100/200 can say that, but you have fundamental leaks(again everyone does).

so the key is to always be critical of your play, and spend time reading and posting

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If it makes you feel better, i took a shot at 1/2last night. Dropped 70$ (35BB).

if you think you can chrush it, stick to it and adjust slightly providing you have the BR.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it makes you feel any better, I took a shot at 5/10 last night. lost $200 (20bb, 50 at my current level).

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a joke? 20bb? Please say it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

totally uncalled for, and seriously your whine post is the same [censored] thing

[milesdyson]

LOL "Is this a joke? 20 bb?"

hey fcking whiner, get a life and learn how to play poker.

edit: lol i love posting in these threads

[mhlandry]

[ QUOTE ]
hooray for acting all high and mighty

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think the advice in this thread has been good so far? If so, which?

[ QUOTE ]
first thing you need to realize is that its never 100% variance, 99% of players play worse when things aren't going well, bad calls, bad folds .. tilt-raises, so stop thinking you are an expert getting hit with the variance stick, and look at your game, you'll find things that aren't good, don't worry everybody does

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh, I realize it isn't all variance. That's why I included the back story. I was hoping to explain that I'm not some novice played 1000 hands at .5/1 party whining baby. Apparently I did a very poor job of explaining my thoughts.

[ QUOTE ]
getting to the point where the normal day to day swings doesn't bother you is a long process

[/ QUOTE ]

Please tell me if these are the stats of a normal day to day downswing, because if they are, I'm quitting forever:

KK: -27BB.
KJo: -15bb.
AJo: -11bb.
AQs: -11bb.
A9s: -9bb.
KTs: -9bb.
AKs: -8bb.
KQs: -7.5bb.
A9o: -5bb.
TT: -5bb.
ATo: -4bb.

Severl other hands are underperforming as well.

Look, we both know that individually these are ridiculously small amounts to worry about. The part that is bothering me is how many of these good hands are losing. Most of that list reads like a fricken premium cards starting hand char.

Maybe you still don't believe me.

My VPIP is fricken 14 w/ 8pfr. Low end of the spectrum for sure. I'm a tight a$$. But check this out: my w$wsf is 25, wtsd 32, and w$sd 43.

Now come on. With a 14vpip you know the cards that I'm playing and you sure as well know that that w$wsf and w$sd is ridiculous.

[ QUOTE ]
tough it out, vent a little, and be real introspective of your game

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, if someone would've said this earlier, it would've helped a lot. This is the best advice in this thread so far. By far.

[ QUOTE ]
saying that you "have no problem with the way you are playing" is a cop-out, you most certainly should be worried with the way you are playing, as you have leaks(everyone does) saying I don't need to work on my game outside of discipline coming from a 2/4 player is foolish, maybe someone who's beating 100/200 can say that, but you have fundamental leaks(again everyone does).

[/ QUOTE ]

The point of that statement was to convey that I believe my game is capable of beating 2/4 quite easily. I'm not saying I'm the best poker player ever, I'm not even saying that I'm a good poker player. I'm saying the players at 2/4 are worse than me.

[ QUOTE ]
so the key is to always be critical of your play, and spend time reading and posting

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't posted much. But I've spent more time reading than I should. I'm reading this site every day. Psychology, micro, HUSH. Usually I find the posts to be very helpful.

[mhlandry]

[ QUOTE ]
LOL "Is this a joke? 20 bb?"

hey fcking whiner, get a life and learn how to play poker.

edit: lol i love posting in these threads

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow miles. You are one of the guys in this micro forum that I respect. I've read the micro forum for close to 6 months and it doesn't take a genius to tell who knows what they are talking about and who doesnt.

I usually look forward to reading your posts and advice. I was actually hoping that you would be one of the first people to reply to this offering me some advice.

Damn.

And FYI, I thought the poster might have been using some sarcasm to scold me for what has apparently been percieved as whining.

Damn miles.

[ QUOTE ]


Please tell me if these are the stats of a normal day to day downswing, because if they are, I'm quitting forever:

KK: -27BB.
KJo: -15bb.
AJo: -11bb.
AQs: -11bb.
A9s: -9bb.
KTs: -9bb.
AKs: -8bb.
KQs: -7.5bb.
A9o: -5bb.
TT: -5bb.
ATo: -4bb.


[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe poker isn't you game /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ChuckyB]

My biggest thing is that if you move back down, when your downswing stops (if you believe/you're sure it's that) you'll only make one-half the profit you're entitled to. If you're bankroll was sufficient before the downswing, keep plugging. If you're playing well, you'll be back soon.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
Please tell me if these are the stats of a normal day to day downswing, because if they are, I'm quitting forever:

KK: -27BB.
KJo: -15bb.
AJo: -11bb.
AQs: -11bb.
A9s: -9bb.
KTs: -9bb.
AKs: -8bb.
KQs: -7.5bb.
A9o: -5bb.
TT: -5bb.
ATo: -4bb.

Severl other hands are underperforming as well.

Look, we both know that individually these are ridiculously small amounts to worry about. The part that is bothering me is how many of these good hands are losing. Most of that list reads like a fricken premium cards starting hand char.

Maybe you still don't believe me.

My VPIP is fricken 14 w/ 8pfr. Low end of the spectrum for sure. I'm a tight a$$. But check this out: my w$wsf is 25, wtsd 32, and w$sd 43.

Now come on. With a 14vpip you know the cards that I'm playing and you sure as well know that that w$wsf and w$sd is ridiculous.



[/ QUOTE ]

ok, for the hands you listed, I'm guessing the sample size for the offsuit hands is in the 5-12range, the pairs in the 0-6range, suited hands in the 0-5range roughly .. about right?? so you are worrying over samples like that? that will only lead to problems, granted you should be looking over the hands for mistakes, but you shouldn't be concerned about the results with that kind of sample

re: VPIP/PFR/WSF/WSD/W$SD

VPIP and PFR converge pretty fast, but definetly are gonna have good 600hand runs, bad 600hand runs, and average 600hand runs .. and could fluctuate a fair bit

the other 3 stats are postflop based, so look you've seen maybe 100-120flops counting the times you get free looks from the BB, so its a much smaller sample of an already small sample ... so the point is don't look into it too far.

I myself have trouble with over-emphasising results, its something I really have been working on, face facts its more fun when things are going well, and you are running tables over, then when things are rough, and your good hands are bricking out/getting outdrawn. But the majority of your post isn't concerned with your play, just look at these numbers and tell me what's wrong, when your focus should be on did I play well, and if not what was I doing wrong, how do I correct those mistakes so I don't make them in the future

[mhlandry]

[ QUOTE ]
But the majority of your post isn't concerned with your play, just look at these numbers and tell me what's wrong, when your focus should be on did I play well, and if not what was I doing wrong, how do I correct those mistakes so I don't make them in the future

[/ QUOTE ]

I realize my focus should be on my play. Whether I make the right decisions, whether I even know what the right decisions are. The problem is that I've lost so much in so short of term (its up to 150bb in 1500 hands now) I stop focusing on my play. I start focusing on how much I'm getting 'screwed'.

The whole point of my OP was to ask you guys for advice on how to clear my mind and start focusing on my play. I feel that my game as is can beat pp 2/4 healthily. I'm not saying I don't have problems with my game. I even admitted it. But the point is I need to get back to focusing on my game.

I don't understand what's so hard to comprehend here. And I also don't understand why people started attacking me for whining. I'm not bitching about the cards being cruel to me or the fish sucking out. I'm just stating what happened and asking for help on how to put it behind me. Which seems mor e psychological than microlimit. This is why I said I may have posted in the wrong forum. Not because I think I'm 'high and mighty'.

Am I not making myself clear?

[bottomset]

ok here goes

the way to approach poker is to do the following

focus on the things you can control

game/seat selection
your play

and let the rest take care of itself

simply put, "focus on what matters, and forget the rest"

maybe my points haven't been clear, but I am trying to help you see where to go from here.

[ubercuber]

Go play nano's for a while and LAG it up. That got me out my downswing and I realized in the process that I had been playing passivly. One sign that let me know was winning pots with nothing, that had fallen off when I was on the bad side of the river. People trash downswing posters pretty good cuz there are so many, but when I went through first,the only one I have had so far, it messed with my head. It'll pass.

The Faq should have a link to some of the downswing posts like Wookies and a suggestion to do a search. Half the need is just hearing about other players coming out on top after multiple downswings. Reading old posts is effective.

Edit: My communication skills fade pretty hard this time of night!! damn!

[mhlandry]

I think we're hammering at this rock from opposite sides. But I we'll meet eventually.

I understand perfectly what you're saying. Focus on the parts of the game that I can control. But to my ears right now this is like saying, change the tire on your car, but don't use a jack.

Every time I end a session that is part of a multiday downswing I want to start another one soon thereafter. I know I can beat this game. I want to prove it. I'm stubborn. I tell myself that if I make the right decisions it'll work out. Then I start playing, get a few beats in a row, and am at witts end.

When you get pissed off at the game, what do you do? Do you play through it? Do you go jogging? Do you have a punching bag? Do you bash on the drums? Do you go barhopping with friends and get drunk? Do you do a home improvement project?

Anything? I'm open to ideas.

Or have you reached the point where you no longer get frustrated with the game? And if so, how did you get to that point?

[mhlandry]

[ QUOTE ]
Go play nano's for a while and LAG it up. That got me out my downswing and I realized in the process that I had been playing passivly. One sign that let me know was winning pots with nothing, that had fallen off when I was on the bad side of the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Were you able to translate this refound aggression to your normal limit? For instance, I've noticed that at .5/1, I have AK and raise it up pf, flop comes something like 599r, I'll bet and it'll fold around to me and I'll pick it right up. But at 2/4 the players are more apt to call this bet and not yield so much to my aggression.

[ QUOTE ]
My communication skills fade pretty hard this time of night!! damn!

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah man. This is exactly what I was looking for. Something concrete to do.