AKs, monotone board, vs. 2+2er

[private joker]

Villain is 2+2 SS poster Will Magic. He has no idea who I am.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $5.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls.

Turn: (6.20 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

River: (8.20 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.20 BB

[Evan]

Bet the river.

If you want to check you should fold.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the river.

If you want to check you should fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even though he doesn't know who I am, won't he suspect a Clarkmeister and raise with less than a spade? I feel like showing down top 2 here.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
Even though he doesn't know who I am, won't he suspect a Clarkmeister and raise with less than a spade? I feel like showing down top 2 here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Um, what?!?!?!

1) You've been betting the whole way, so it's not really a "clarkmeister"
2) No, why the [censored] would he suspect that if he doesn't know who you are?
3) I think he has a showdownable hand, so it's more likely he will just call

[jason_t]

Bet the river.

Since you checked, fold.

[newhizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
Since you checked, fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

the river is a bet/fold, but close in my oppinion

this statement makes no sense to me, just because you check a river dosent mean you are sure you are beat, and i could see a bet from a 2+2er with perhaps A /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif here, there are a lot of times when inducing a bluff is the best action, id like to hear the reasoning behind this if its serious

[SackUp]

always bet 4flush on the river when first to act HU.

This is a Clarkmeister even though he bet all the way. The thread was bumped a little bit ago. Typically we speak about it when we are OOP and have been c/c, but I'm pretty sure the above statement is a Clarkmeister regardless.

Either way, call it what you want to call it, this bet this river.

[hobbsmann]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the river.

Since you checked, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Evan]

The only hands he will bet that we beat are 2 pair and there's no way he has 2 pair.

[jason_t]

Checking allows him to play the river perfectly.

[private joker]

Yeah, it's looking like the river is a clear bet/fold. My mistake.

It was pretty easy for WillMagic to play the river perfectly anyway -- he rivered the second nut flush, for he held J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

This brings me to another question: Will is a solid poster here, so are people always defending their CO posts to a raise with hands like J8o? I wouldn't mind hearing people list their chart of what they call with and what they fold.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Checking allows him to play the river perfectly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jason... this is a great comment. This is one of the most articulate ways of thinking of river play OOP I've heard... /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
Checking allows him to play the river perfectly.

[/ QUOTE ]

So are you assuming that a 2p2er would only bet here with a spade?

[newhizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Checking allows him to play the river perfectly.

[/ QUOTE ]

So are you assuming that a 2p2er would only bet here with a spade?

[/ QUOTE ]

thats what im saying, the fact that he posted in the CO gives him a much bigger hand range, and could possibly have 2 pair or just be trying to squeeze some value out of TPGK, or he could see that you have fairly tight stats and be going for a bluff that may only work a small percentage of the time, but is profitable in this spot, especially if we are always folding after we check a river when there is a 4 flush

another question: suppose its some random donk and not a 2+2er, do you still feel the same way? i actually think against more LAG opponents a c/c is the correct play

[brettbrettr]

I think you have to fold the river.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting 9.2:1 closing the action heads up with top 2 pair. I guess I *can* fold the river but I don't think I have to with this situation.

[brettbrettr]

Maybe I know Will a bit better than you, but I really think he's value betting here.

[WillMagic]

Wow. Just found this thread.

I think my preflop call is pretty standard. Getting great odds in position, I don't find many folds.

In regard to the river...bet/fold looks pretty solid. I bluff raise an unknown here about 0% of the time. Even after villain checks I don't bluff this river often (&lt; 5%), so after pj checks and I bet I think he has a pretty clear fold. I'm just not that creative against unknowns.

Will

[Shillx]

The PF play isn't exactly stellar here. Even more so when you take into account that most people loosen up when someone posts in the CO. Good players will obviously tighten up in your spot, but when an unknown raises my post I figure him for a weaker hand on average. This is a clear 3-bet or fold preflop IMo.

[WillMagic]

"but when an unknown raises my post I figure him for a weaker hand on average.."

I generally assume the opposite. But we could argue about this sort of assumption all day and never get anywhere.

"This is a clear 3-bet or fold preflop IMo."

I'm not convinced.

J8o has a pot equity disadvantage here against every hand villain raises here. Since I posted, villain is not going to give my three-bet nearly the credit he would under normal circumstances, which increases the likelihood of a cap by a significant margin, and a cap in this case is really a pretty bad outcome - I end up putting in a lot of bets preflop at a significant disadvantage and without the initiative.

Also...it is not nearly as important as it would be with say, 55 to ensure that the pot is played heads-up. J8o doesn't lose nearly as much pot equity to a third player as does 55.

I don't think that this is a clear 3-bet or fold at all. To me, calling looks better than either option.

Will

[BoxTree]

[ QUOTE ]
J8o doesn't lose nearly as much pot equity to a third player as does 55.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oooh...this is a wonderful tidbit about pocket pairs.

Just saying.

[Delzek15]

Perfect.

[Borodog]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow. Just found this thread.

I think my preflop call is pretty standard. Getting great odds in position, I don't find many folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm. This may be the nugget of gold in this whole thread for me (I also agree a river bet-fold is pretty standard given that I know who the bettor is).

But this thing about calling raises with J8o from the post is interesting. I make this call easily with JTo, but would routinely fold J9o. Can the distinction really be that clear? Probably not. But I think J7o is a definite fold, yes?

A better question would be, what's the weakest hand you defend your post with in this same situation? I wouldn't classify your odds as "great" personally. You're getting 4.5:1 to defend, but have a hand that will suffer from RIO a lot of the time. I'm not sure. If the same player raises in the same place and it folds to the SB who calls, do you defend your BB J8o getting 5.5:1? I don't. Am I too tight in my blinds?

[WillMagic]

[ QUOTE ]


But this thing about calling raises with J8o from the post is interesting. I make this call easily with JTo, but would routinely fold J9o. Can the distinction really be that clear? Probably not. But I think J7o is a definite fold, yes?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't necessarily think it's a definite fold, no. Folding can't be that wrong.

[ QUOTE ]


A better question would be, what's the weakest hand you defend your post with in this same situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno. I probably fold J6o. I call with unsuited connectors maybe as low as 65o. I don't have any chart or anything though...it's a situation that comes up pretty rarely...and the amount of ev that you win or lose in spots like this is pretty minimal.

[ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't classify your odds as "great" personally. You're getting 4.5:1 to defend, but have a hand that will suffer from RIO a lot of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Reverse implied odds are significantly mitigated by the fact that we have position. Think about how the hand will play out postflop in position as opposed to from the bb.

Will

[KDawgCometh]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Checking allows him to play the river perfectly.

[/ QUOTE ]

So are you assuming that a 2p2er would only bet here with a spade?

[/ QUOTE ]


no, I think will only bets this river with a spade, *maybe* a set, but any of the hands that he'd have a set with on the flop he'd have three bet PF, so I think a spade is his holding if he bets


[ QUOTE ]
This brings me to another question: Will is a solid poster here, so are people always defending their CO posts to a raise with hands like J8o? I wouldn't mind hearing people list their chart of what they call with and what they fold.

[/ QUOTE ]


now this is an interesting question. As with anything in poker, it depends. Genreally, I'll call with any two suited. I'm not a fan of defending here with off suit gaps. I'd probably defend with 109o. I have a big disdain for off suit cards like J8o in general. Maybe I'm missing out on some +ev situations, but I don't feel that its a big enough leak to worry about. THough off suit broadways are always cool to defend with here I think

If I were Will, I'd definately be chucking this if he has any sort of decent amount of stats on you(if you are still using the same sn that I have stats on). I just don't see what you are raising from MP2 that J8o rates well against for the most part. His holding kinda surprises me cause I've generally thought of will as a solid player, and this call PF is a little loose IMO

[newhizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the river.

Since you checked, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry to bump this thread, but i am currently rereading TOP, almost done with it, and after getting through the heads up on the end chapter, id just like to say that i now fully understand this concept

its not neccessarily that since you checked, you allow him to play the river perfectly, although thats part of it

basically you are going to lose money on this last bet no matter what because you are an underdog whether you bet or call, but you will be called by slightly more hands than hands that villain will bet if you check, if you check, villian will not be betting enough hands to make a call profitable given your pot odds, so you must fold, but if you bet, your opponent will call with a hand that you can beat more often than 1 time in 10, you do not make a profit on the bet itsef, for that he needs to call with a hand you beat over half the time, but the pot is offering odds to make this last bet, just not to call a last bet

basically you are minimizing the inevitable negative expectation on the last bet, but the positive expectation you get from the pot makes up for it, but would not be enough to make of for the negative expecation if you were to check and call

i think this is also part of the concept behind the clarkmeister theory, but that also involves fold equity of better hands

[Evan]

WTF? I said the same thing 2 hours before Jason and you quoted him?!?!?! /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[newhizzle]

yeah, sorry, i just pretty much found someone to quote here, also he was the one who said checking allows him to play the river perfectly

i guess you should be the one to get credit for the being the first one to say it

[KDawgCometh]

[ QUOTE ]
WTF? I said the same thing 2 hours before Jason and you quoted him?!?!?! /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ]


newhizzle doesn't like people that owned him heads up.

[newhizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
WTF? I said the same thing 2 hours before Jason and you quoted him?!?!?! /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ]


newhizzle doesn't people that owned him heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Edited by Evan (11/07/05 03:21 AM)

[/ QUOTE ]

you left out the like evan, and i was drunk

anyway, as most probably know, i like you alot better than i like jason, just happened to quote him

but keith was right, i dont like short people

[KDawgCometh]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
WTF? I said the same thing 2 hours before Jason and you quoted him?!?!?! /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ]


newhizzle doesn't people that owned him heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]


such gross misusement of mod powers /images/graemlins/laugh.gif. I don't know what to say, lol