UB20K - Play or Lay? (fun with jacks)

[CardSharpCook]

Blinds are 400/800 50 ante 10handed

UTG goes limps for 800, 1 fold, UTG+2 pushes for 2500, MP1 Pushes for 8500, 4 folds. Hero is in the SB with 12K.

BB is known for loose play and has hero covered. UTG has 7K.

Hero has JJ. In responding, bear in mind relative stack sizes. 1st push is of 3BBs, 2nd push of 10BBs. The limper has 9BBs. Hero has 15BBs. There is about 14500 in the pot and if UTG calls, that makes it about 21K. It is 8100 to you. You will have 4K left if you lose this hand (and BB folds).

What do you do here?

I think I have to lean toward a fold here.

UTG limps and then you have two pushes.

The first push has a pretty wide range but it has to be narrowed down somewhat that there is already a caller and his stack size gives him zero FE against a UTP limp.

The second push has to be put on a decent hand here. He may push hoping that UTG wasn't limping with a monster and hope to get it heads up against the short stack with some extra chips in the middle. I don't think he pushes many pairs worse than jacks.

Assuming the BB folds you won't be out but you will be crippled. Without the UTG limp I'm more likely to get in this pot his limp throws too many problems in.

[curtains]

I would almost always fold here..

[CardSharpCook]

I make the second push with a lot of trashy hands. 22 or KJs for example. Now we can't be too concerned because of a UTG limp, can we?

Sounds to me like the buzzer on your dryer went off. Now, go get your laundry and "fold it."

A good argument could be made for pushing, but I've had too many bad run ins with JJ.

Will

[betgo]

I hate to disagree with everyone, but given the stack sizes, I push. First allin for 3xBB means nothing. Over the top push could as easily be a smaller pair as a bigger pair. I think jacks are probably ahead here. You can't treat this the same as two players allin with deep stacks.

[Exitonly]

yep i'm with betgo for a change /images/graemlins/shocked.gif


the pushes mean very little, the scariest part of this hand is UTG's 9xBB limp. But i'm pushing anyway.

[KneeCo]

Some reads on UTG would be great here, not only to narrow his range but also because it has a domino effect on the ranges of the other players (especially UTG+2 but also MP1 if he knows what he's doing).

UTG+2: Can probably have the widest range of anyone in the hand at the moment. He's only got 3 BBs, and might think he still has FE and thus an outside shot 2500 and doubling up right now if he pushes.

MP1: 10.5 BBs decides to push. A good player might actually make this move with a less than premuim hand, assuming he has a read on UTG and he thinks by pushing he can get everyone else told fold, incl. UTG, and get 2:1 on his 2500. Nevertheless, we are looking at a middle position push after an UTG limp and an EP reraise all-in, so we can't overextend his range. I'd put him on no less that TT-AA, AQs+.

I think it's fair to assume that if Hero calls here, lag or not, I think BB folds a hand like AK here, so he's out (109 times in 110, when he doesn't have KK-AA) and UTG will call.

I gave them some fairly middle of the road ranges I think, and punched the numbers into poker stove:
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 21.4354 % [ 00.21 00.01 ] { JdJc }
Hand 2: 23.6106 % [ 00.23 00.01 ] { AA-77, AKs-ATs }
Hand 3: 21.1751 % [ 00.20 00.01 ] { AA-66, JTs, AKo, KQo }
Hand 4: 33.7789 % [ 00.32 00.01 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs }

You could easily be 4:1 to get crippled in this hand and would probably have to call 8100 for a shot at 20500, depending on UTG's call or fold, (2.53:1).

I dunno, I think it's a marginal fold. But with a good feel for the table and thus a better basis for the ranges, I can see calling here.

[CardSharpCook]

I think your hand ranges are tight. This is an observed hand, a friend of mine and I had a disagreement, but I thought it a good hand for discussion. I think this is a push. Really, I'm not giving UTG any moster credit. Donks do donkish things. He could have AA or 22. However, I think that if we push, he'll probably call. We are looking at a possible near triple up without risking our entire stack. It is true that we are occasionally dominated by MP2 or UTG. It is also true that it is very possible that there are 3 live overcards against us. However, I look at this as risk and reward. What is the risk? Chance of losing 8.5K. Reward? Well, we could win part or all of this pot for up to 21K. What is our equity? hard to say, but I think that JJ is the best hand here a good deal of the time. True, even as the best hand, we only have about a 45% shot of winning the pot, but I think this is a gamble that I want to take. My stack right now is just above critical. I can afford one failed steal attempt and then I am in short stack mode. This gamble could make me a force in the tourney again. I take this chance. The safety net of 4K is nice too.

[ansky451]

I dont give any of them for a big hand. They all have huge ranges i think, and I push this every time.

[kuro]

I like a push here too. You're pretty far ahead of the ranges of the two short stack pushes and there's dead money in the limp + big blind. The utg limp is concerning but if your read is that the guy limps when he shouldn't and you should know this after sitting at the table for like an orbit then it's a pretty easy push.

I push. The 3BB push has a pretty wide range. The 10BB push could easily be to isolate with a small pair or big cards. I'm scared of UTG limp, but if he calls you're getting almost 3:1.

[Sam T.]

Yah, I push.

Limper? Unless I've seen him do this repeatedly with AA or KK, I don't worry too much about him.

UTG+2 is doing this with any ace, perhaps any king, and any pair down to ducks.

MP1 looks like an isolation raise. He knows UTG+2 is on a very wide range, and wants to squeeze out the blinds and the limper. He could have a monster of course (though I might smooth call to bring along the BB in his shoes), but he's doing this with a pretty wide range as well. I would not be surprised to see AT+, KJ+, 88+.

UTG is folding, regardless of pot odds. You calling with 77 after three pushes?