on the bubble play, should i go all in or fold?

[curtains]

I was playing a pokerstars 2 table event today and made a play that I am wondering about...

I have 4100 in chips, the guy to my left is almost out, with only 500, and the other players have approximately 8000. Prizes are 1st - 216 2nd - 162 3rd - 108 4th - 54

Blinds are 300-600 with a 50 dollar ante, so 1150 in the pot preflop

I have A8s in the BB, everyone folds to the SB, who is pretty reckless in these spots, and he raises to 1800. What do I do? What do I do if I know for sure I have him beat or that he has any two random cards. If you think I should fold, what are the minimum hands that I should have to go all in? The question is how important is it to eke into 4th place in situations like this, as opposed to taking a stand with the best hand and trying to finish near the top of the tournament. Although, it's clear that I can also fold and still finish higher than 4th...

I had a friend tell me to fold everything but AA and KK, but I can't imagine this is right at all.....any opinions are greatly appriciated!!

[curtains]

Wheeeee respond to me!!

Also another idea......how about just calling in the BB, leaving myself with 2400 or so, and if i miss the flop folding and still probably getting 4th place at least.

[yct]

I think I would fold and avoid confrontation at this point. Let the short stack to have a chance to bust out. But I'm no tournament specialist.

[ohkanada]

I likely muck A8 in that situation. I would certainly go all-in with JJ+ and AQ+. Other pairs would be a tougher decision depending on if I felt the SB would call my all-in with anything that he initially raised with.

I try not to eek into the money but I think mucking a marginal hand against a big stack when the shortstack will be all-in on the next hand is fine.

Ken Poklitar

[Greg (FossilMan)]

If you flat call, will this guy check if he misses the flop? If so, then call and hope he checks (or that he bets and you've hit the flop big). If he's going to bet the flop no matter what, it becomes a lot harder for you to play this hand right.

Reraising now should get you a call, even if he's got nothing (2200 to win 5800). So, while you're probably a 3:2 favorite over most of his hands, you're going to go broke on the bubble 40% of the time.

However, that's OK here. Right now, each step up the ladder is 1 unit. From 0 to 1 now, then 1 to 2, etc. So, the fact that it's the bubble isn't such a big deal, since the payout scale is linear. If this were a 1-table event paying 50-30-20, I would advocate a fold, because the next jump is big. Here, with a linear payout, I advocate playing since you say you expect to be the favorite over his range of hands.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[DannyP]

It depends on what you think the SB is going to do.

Assuming the 3/2 favorite mentioned in another post is correct, and using chip count probabilities of beating out all, 2 or 1 of the remaining players, the EV of folding now is about $100, while the EV of a called all-in is about $80, and the EV of an all-in that the SB folds is about $130.

Depending on how you weight SBs call vs no call will determine the EV of your decision. If you think its 50/50 that he calls, the EV of the all in is $105. If SB calls in proportion to his chances of winning with a random hand (ie 40% call, 60% fold using the 3/2 above)your EV is about $110 for the all in. So your EVs for an all in range from $80 for a definite SB call to $130 for a definite SB fold, centering around $100...the same as your folding EV.

Despite the small extra EV for the 40%/60% call scenario (wouldnt that be SB's game theory optimum?)my conservative nature would say fold, lock in the almost certain $54, and take my chances on getting something better than A8s to showdown a bigger stack.

Someone is welcome to check my math! If youve got a better method of estimating winning probabilities than using chip-counts I'd love to know it!

[curtains]

Results.... I went all in with A8s, my opponent called with K2o, he won and I came in 5th.

[MD_]