$33SNG Bubble decision vs. chipleader

[tipperdog]

This one vexes me.

4 players left (normal top-3 payout structure). Blinds just increased to 75/150. I am SB with 1,400 chips. Chipleader is BB with 4,000. UTG and UTG+1 both have ~1,100.

Chipleader is not particularly aggressive--he is not playing like a guy with a monster stack. He has picked up big hands at opportune times and gotten paid off. However, very recently (last 10 hands) he has opened up a bit and called some desperation all-ins with marginal hands.

UTG is super-tight. He is trying to fold his way into the money. UTG+1 seems a pretty good player. He will go down swinging.

In the SB, I pick up A6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Folded to me (chipleader in BB). What's the play?

[splashpot]

ICM says push. I push this, but I'm sort of discovering that I can be over aggressive on the bubble at times.

[zambonidrivr]

raise it up 2.5-3x BB. if he shoves, you still have FE to lay this this hoe down. next time you get the chance, shove to his blinds vs. raise.

I dont like the raise x3bb at this level. Im probably going to push here in almost every situation and hope for the best.

That might sound silly, but think about this. The big stack/chipleader has been calling some desperate allins with marginal hands. You move in with A6suited he calls with a marginal hand like 9,10 or J,10 or 5,6 and you might have a chance of doubling up.

Also you are the second larger stack here, it almost seems that the chip leader is only screwing around will the small stacks trying to eliminate one quickly so that he is guranteed in the money. I dont think he will mess with you.

Push and watch him fold.

Yeah, a non-all in raise is just begging a player like you describe to come over the top of you, forcing you to fold the best hand too many times to make it a profitable play.

[junkmail3]

This is a pretty easy push. Your stack is not so great that you walk into the money, and this is a good hand to pick up 225 chips. (If you do get called, you have a somewhat decent hand to play with)

[zipppy]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, a non-all in raise is just begging a player like you describe to come over the top of you, forcing you to fold the best hand too many times to make it a profitable play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he described the big stack as someone a non-push could work on. "not particularly aggressive". When the big stack called allins, were the allins very short stacked? If so, he may not be willing to go toe-to-toe with your stack, even if it is much smaller than his.

You have more than 8 BBs. I like the 2.5-3x raise. If he is willing to call allins with marginal hands, to me that makes pushing less appealing...with A6 suited, it's probably going to be a race, and if you're a better player I'd look for spots that aren't coinflips (even if I am ahead).

Raising (and not pushing) forces him to make a decision, and if he pushes you can get out of the hand. On top of that, and maybe more/most importantly, raising will give you valuable insight into his play as a big stack that you'll be able to use to your advantage the rest of the sng.

>>>ZIPPPY

[zambonidrivr]

Fair enough, shove those chips in. I am not against that, and with 3 = stacks left and one big, agression pays

[tipperdog]

RESULTS....

Still don't know the right play, but I went with the 2.5x raise, planning to fold if raised. The BB pushed and I folded (I'm still fairly sure his push meant I was in trouble.)

Now, instead of a close 2nd chipleader, I was the table shortstack (by a very narrow margin). I pushed KT within a few hands, ran into AJ and busted on the bubble.

[splashpot]

[ QUOTE ]
RESULTS....

Still don't know the right play, but I went with the 2.5x raise, planning to fold if raised. The BB pushed and I folded (I'm still fairly sure his push meant I was in trouble.)

Now, instead of a close 2nd chipleader, I was the table shortstack (by a very narrow margin). I pushed KT within a few hands, ran into AJ and busted on the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]
Raising to 2.5xBB is the worst play you can make IMO.

Making a raise that's not a push is terrible. Shove it in.

[YourFoxyGrandma]

Easy push.

Question: If the BB had t1,100 would you push?

[ QUOTE ]


Raising (and not pushing) forces him to make a decision, and if he pushes you can get out of the hand.
>>>ZIPPPY

[/ QUOTE ]

And if he calls and the flop doesn't contain an ace? You check and fold? You bet out? Sounds like a bad plan to me.

[tipperdog]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy push.

Question: If the BB had t1,100 would you push?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. IMO, The fact that I could bust him on the bubble would increase my fold equity considerably.

[JudoGirl]

I push. The ev difference is about +.7% (or +$2). But I've been getting killed at the Party 11's doing exactly this type of thing in this situation with similar cards. I still think it is the right thing to do though...

Raising 2.5-3x invites an aggressive player to come over the top and it sounds like BB has recently changed gears (as do many good players at this stage). Coming over the top of a 2.5-3x raise from the SB is a big +EV move for BB.

[zipppy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Raising (and not pushing) forces him to make a decision, and if he pushes you can get out of the hand.
>>>ZIPPPY

[/ QUOTE ]

And if he calls and the flop doesn't contain an ace? You check and fold? You bet out? Sounds like a bad plan to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. My raise would be to steal his blind and leave room to get out if reraised. So much of this is dependant on your table image, and what's happened in the last 5 hands.